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Novice Chasers 2016/2017

oh ..ok..i'm a bit like Grey with initial job unless its obvious.

i don't buy the franking argument mesen..if KV had beaten him yesterday then i might take it more serious..but in general..i find franking a poor way to make money and generally..a poor guide..just not my bag..but loved by many
 
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Killultagh Vic absolutely clouted the last when he won that too. He looked like an aeroplane in his starts last season. Hope he comes back ok.
 
My rationale would be, he is very unexposed and is available at pretty big prices.

Injury wise, who knows what the lie of the land is, but he is a pretty exciting horse in his own right, wherever he is pitched in
 
Patrick Mullins seemed pretty sure in last week's RP podcast that KV wouldn't be going GC route this year Granger. I'd also be slightly wary of Willie's comments on ATR “We’ve decided to give him more time to recover from the injury he picked up last season and he won’t be back on the track until the second half of the season"

Make of all that what you will though considering the stable.

That said, he's one I definitely want on side when and if he comes back 100%.
 
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Nice from Thistlecrack but talk of Gold Cup's is ridiculous at this stage. I'm not knocking him, he looked the part, but they can all do that when they are racing against horses rated 2 stone behind them.

I thought he was very clever at one fence where a lesser animal on the wrong stride would have belted it he quickly corrected himself and jumped it well.

That's always a good sign for the future but getting back to the likes of the Gold Cup? He never showed me enough to be thinking that. Compared to Sprinter Sacre's first run at Doncaster when he drew gasps from the crowd or Douvan at Navan when it looked like if he had been given his head he could have gone round again and lapped them before the winning line, it was fairly ordinary.

As I said it was a very nice introduction and you could even say the perfect introduction but it's a million miles from Grade 1 chasing and we've seen so many good hurdlers fall by the wayside when asked the big questions associated with chasing.

I hope what is a brave decision turns out to be a sensible one as the more good chasers around the better
 
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with franking you need to know how the 2nd horse really was..did he think fook it that day...was he well enough to show true ability?...total guesswork imo..it tricks punters regular...oh well X beat Y..y then wins big race nto.....ooh X must be decent..no he isn;'t..when X beat Y ...Y was only 85%..didn't really like the ground..distance...weather etc..so X ain't nowt special..just beat an opponent that disn't show best

to me ..franking is lazy punting displayed at its the best..its idle and imo..unprofitable..and a waste of time..just my view..but borne out through 40 odd years of experience..what do i know?
 
Tanlic said:
Nice from Thistlecrack but talk of Gold Cup's is ridiculous at this stage. I'm not knocking him, he looked the part, but they can all do that when they are racing against horses rated 2 stone behind them.

I thought he was very clever at one fence where a lesser animal on the wrong stride would have belted it he quickly corrected himself and jumped it well.

That's always a good sign for the future but getting back to the likes of the Gold Cup? He never showed me enough to be thinking that. Compared to Sprinter Sacre's first run at Doncaster when he drew gasps from the crowd or Douvan at Navan when it looked like if he had been given his head he could have gone round again and lapped them before the winning line.

As I said it was a very nice introduction and you could even say the perfect introduction but it's a million miles from Grade 1 chasing and we've seen so many good hurdlers fall by the wayside when asked the big questions associated with chasing.

I hope what is a brave decision turns out to be a sensible one as the more good chasers around the better
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No one has mentioned the GC since he won today though..except you

but they can all do that when they are racing against horses rated 2 stone behind them.

no they can't really imo..some horses have no natural jumping ability and make at least one error no matter what the oppo

no one said he is ready for G1...that would be daft after one jumps race..but he looks bloody good..if he were trained by Mullins or Henderson it would be waxing lyrical about him imo..this could be a special horse..trainer should be congratulated..or asked why they bothered with hurdles to start with:)
 
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Trainer Colin Tizzard said: "It was a beautiful performance."
Next up is likely to be a trip to Cheltenham for the Open meeting, Tizzard said.
"If we're going to go the Gold Cup then we need to know he jumps round Cheltenham. The plan was two novice chases then the Feltham at Kempton.
"He needs another novice, but he's not a five-year-old, he's had plenty of hurdle races. After that [Cheltenham] I think you could do what you wanted."
Scudamore was equally enthused and added: "He was fantastic, didn't he wing the last."
 
Tanlic said:
Nice from Thistlecrack but talk of Gold Cup's is ridiculous at this stage. I'm not knocking him, he looked the part, but they can all do that when they are racing against horses rated 2 stone behind them.
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And who was behind Sprinter Sacre that day at Doncaster?
 
EC1 said:
with franking you need to know how the 2nd horse really was..did he think fook it that day...was he well enough to show true ability?...total guesswork imo..it tricks punters regular...oh well X beat Y..y then wins big race nto.....ooh X must be decent..no he isn;'t..when X beat Y ...Y was only 85%..didn't really like the ground..distance...weather etc..so X ain't nowt special..just beat an opponent that disn't show best

to me ..franking is lazy punting displayed at its the best..its idle and imo..unprofitable..and a waste of time..just my view..but borne out through 40 odd years of experience..what do i know?
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To be fair, "franking" the form is rarely - if ever - viewed in isolation, and from personal experience, is mainly used to add context to a rating derived via other factors, or used to get a measure of confidence around the rating rating I've awarded.

It's worth bearing in mind that all races are based on guesswork about how the runners have performed. This applies eaually; whether you are using the clock as the basis for your approach, lbs-per-length handicapping, a combination of the two, or any other means. Clearly, some methods are more subjective than others, but neither is foolproof to the extent that it invalidates the other.

The ultimate arbiter of a winning-system is profit. It doesn't really matter which approach you adopt, as long as the profit is there. It's about what works for the individual.
 
The ultimate arbiter of a winning-system is profit. It doesn't really matter which approach you adopt, as long as the profit is there. It's about what works for the individual.

ignoring franking works for me..racing isn't an aside to me..if i don't win now..i don't eat..i eat fine

i have never seen anyone post up on here selections with "franking" involved in the write up ...and show a profit..when i do..i'll take notice that is for sure..until then its just words without back up evidence

i am quite happy to be proved wrong though..so ANYONE on here..feel free to start that thread and show how including franking is profitable..so there is a challenge..if i were challenged like that..i'd take it up...but i don't need to take any challenge up..as what i post on what you backing thread shows the cut of my cloth and whether i know my onions or not

i learn everyday about this game...and i don't have biases..ie..time is only good in jail..stats are sh1te ..flat is better than NH..NH is better than flat....i hate this trainer/jockey/horse......or whatever else most punters seem to nurse...IF any angle or idea is proved to provide profit..I am always hungry for new angles

lets see some franking in action..showing a profit ..is what i say..or is it just an old chestnut like..back outsider of 3..back the grey with sheepskin noseband etc

franking is so overrated imo..in fact its so inbred in pundits and punters..its impossible to change the mindset..which really works in my favour..so i'd rather people did believe in it tbh..its better for me..and i don't really see it changing..even if it was shown to be ineffective clearly on this forum..you would still get folk saying..x has franked that..its just so inbred in to the punter mindset.

Its like a rule from day one..

Rule 1..you know if the horse that finishes second to one you like wins a better race..its a really good thing..even if the one beat didn't show its true form..go with it..never let anyone tell you different..repeat 5000 times until its impossible to change your mind.

Rule 2..time is only important in jail..even if someone (Gigilo)posts a thread for 5 years on TH forum showing otherwise

Rule 3,,stats are shite..even if you win 100 times..the one you lose apparently wipes out all the times the stat proved correct...recency bias floods the punter mindset to an extreme degree..always demonstrated clearly with the broken stat comment "thats that stat broken, stats are sh1te aren't they because they aren't right 100% of the time"

changing how people view this game..even when people show which angles work..goes straight over the head of most punters..they still stick to whatever they drilled into their heads when they first started getting interested in racing..its like..this is set in stone..don't ever think laterally or ever question old chestnuts..just embrace them

i'm not like that...never have been....i want to move forward..with that you will get ridicule or disbelief from engrained mindsets of beliefs set in stone learned from early days..but never any evidence to back up old chestnuts unfortunately..which i find disappointing with the effort that goes into telling me how wrong i am about this or that...yet i probably demonstrate on this forum more than anyone that i know a little with the results i get.

my view on here now is..let people believe what they think is important..even if someone shows them how to win..they won't follow it..because 90% of punters never change how they think from the first month they got into the game.

thank goodness mind you...things won't change without progressive thought..i don't see that on racing forums generally...anyone that sticks head above engrained parapet gets told they wrong or misguided

i'm not complaining with this post..but i am bored with people who don't get results or rarely stick their head above parapet..trying to point out the error of my ways...with no evidence they themselves make any profit

i tend to judge people in this sphere by how good they are turning a profit ..picking winners...its a bit like real life really..if you took your car to a mechanic and it never worked when it was returned to you...would you listen to his advice about mending cars?

If you heard about a financial advisor who had a 100% record for all his clients losing all their money..would you seek his advice about money?

i respect people in this game..who are fookin good at it...and over 16 years..thats about 3 or 4 folk

I respect people who can demonstrate what they crow about..if they can't its just hot air on a forum..which is fine..but it is hot air without back up..many forums have hot air

be nice if this one was different..so make it so is my advice..or it will just blend into the background like any other forum
 
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You haven't listened to me, EC1. I'm saying that I don't know anyone who would use form-franking in isolation, and haven't seen anyone here claim that they use form-franking to make their selections.

I think you're chasing a ghost, to be honest.
 
i haven't really suggested it in isolation..but your post has sort of opened up stuff i had in my head about stuff generally really..never mind..just thinking out loud really about things..its my age:)

i'm probably bored or summat
 
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Do you ever think before you post...............The commentator during the race pointed out he's fav for the Gold Cup. The headline today in the RP is GOLD CUP FAV THISTLECRACK.

Of course he's being touted as a Gold Cup winner and that is ridiculous at this stage.

When I say they can all do that I mean class horses, many of who have fooled thousand least of all you.............MIN.

Your next point no one said he's ready for Group 1. Well he's got one more novice to run in before the Feltham which is a group 1 albeit for novices.... so he better be ready by then as his next step after that looks like the Gold Cup.

Chepstow itself is what I would describe as having easy fences,not too big, but it's fiddly so it is a good test and we know he handles Cheltenham.

Can't agree on your Henderson Tizzard analogy, Tizzard is headline news everywhere in racing circle with Cue Card and Thistlecrack having one two of last seasons top prizes and highly respected.

Against that neither WPM or NJH would be likely run him in the Gold Cup. Their best Horses Sprinter Sacre and Douvan both went Arkle not QMCC and not many would argue that Sprinter would have won the QMCC that year running backwards.

I already sau he never gave me the buzz that either of those mentioned gave me. He was efficient and relaxed at his fences but did nothing extraordinary. You had to like the way he quickened but that would be expected in that class plus nothing wanted to take him on in the early part of the race so he was allowed to travel well within himself.
 
Euronymous said:
And who was behind Sprinter Sacre that day at Doncaster?
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TBH haven't got a clue but that takes nothing away from the fantastic display of Arkle like jumping especially at the 5th and 7th fences and all 4 in the home straight

By memory I remember hearing words like woosh.. spectacularly impressive as he jumped out of David bass's hands.

No comparison
 
brendanr said:
Exactly. Beat a 134 rated hurdler by 24 lengths. Th beat a 135 rated hurdler by 33 lengths today.
Gasps from the Doncaster crowd don't cut it as empirical evidence
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It may not have been verifiable by what you saw but it was for me, by what I took from his performance, having immediately backed him for the Arkle and touted him as the new Arkle on TRF....Something he may well have become if not for his period of ill health. I wasn't a fan of his over hurdles but when he jumped the 5th fence at Donnie it was immediately WTF!!!!! Love at first sight

Anyway pulling one line form a post, using it and ignoring the context of it is just ignorance
 
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Might be worth pointing out that SS ran a t/s of 146 on his Doncaster debut which, in itself, indicates a much sterner test than yesterday's race.
Thistlecrack was impressive enough yesterday, but still has to prove he can jump fences at speed, and you'd hope that he's not rushed into top company simply because of his age.
 

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