Novice Chasers 2017/2018

I'd worry about Yanworth in a fast-run race over 2m 5f. He seems to spend a long time in the air when he does clear them, but other occasions, does leave his mark on 1 or 2 fences.

Difficult to tell if he would be seen to better effect over 3m, he looked absolutely out on his feet coming up the hill today. Tough one to call as to where he would go if I were the one making the decision.
 
He idled up the hill for me and as soon as Sizing came alongside he pulled away again, that was proper heavy ground today and took a lot if getting, the 3m trip on spring ground wouldn't be a major concern for me, his jumping, concentration and general application however are a different story.
 
No doubting Yanworth’s engine - his record in graded 2m hurdles tells you that - but as others have said, he doesn’t make the right shape; coming down too steeply on the landing-side, and carrying insufficient momentum away from each fence as a result. He will jump himself out of contention in a stronger race.
 
I wouldn't back him in the RSA for the reasons already stated. I just think that's his best chance as a return to hurdles looks exceptionally unlikely now.
 
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Grasshopper said:
No doubting Yanworth’s engine - his record in graded 2m hurdles tells you that - but as others have said, he doesn’t make the right shape; coming down too steeply on the landing-side, and carrying insufficient momentum away from each fence as a result. He will jump himself out of contention in a stronger race.
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Tend to disagree, Grass.
Every chase, thus far ,seems to have been educational. with his pilot holding on to his head to ensure he gets from one side of a fence to t'other, but he showed what he can do when allowed his head at the last, taking lengths out of good horses with a single leap.
Still maintain he'd be a natch for the Arkle, though we're unlikely to see it - under his present tutelage.
 
He mentioned in an article on Irish Racing the week before Christmas how Russell had been on to him to drop him back to 2m as he new he’d be in L’town on St. Stephen’s Day and would keep the ride but at that stage Elliott was saying he was 99% positive it’d be Limerick.

Looks like the decision could come back to haunt them now. “No plans” comment seems telling.


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granger said:
Footpad has been very exciting to date. Not one that I would have predicted
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Given the performance of the Mullins horses in subsequent days you'd almost have to mark him up for the run on Stephen's day!!

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Petit Mouchoir is the forgotten horse in the arkle market. He boasts better hurdles form than the lot of them and jumped well before his setback. Hopefully we’ll see him in the Irish Arkle.

It’s a bit of an anomaly this year in that second season hurdlers switched to fences in their third season dominate the head of the market. Normally those types don’t tend to fare well with plan B.


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Footpad already a better chaser than hurdler, TheBear, so not sure a literal interpretation of that form helps greatly. Also, Footpad was a juvenile his first season over hurdles, so no huge surprise they waited another year with him, before going over fences (especially since the generous 5yo allowance was whipped-away).

I think Footpad will be hard beaten in the Arkle. Best jumping novice-chaser I've seen in a long time.
 
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I backed Footpad Sceau Royal and Petit Mouchoir in the first leg of a Cheltenham accie...but if I was backing one it would be Footpad.

He made Death Duty look like a tree and took so much out of him he would have been lucky to finish 2nd had he stood up.

Looks another Arkle banker
 
I’m not trying to detract from Footpad as he’s looked a natural over fences. However I think it’s dangerous to put him down as a banker as many are doing.
In PM you have an opponent who has bettered him on more than one occasion over hurdles and has proven he can handle a fence. At 5 times the price I’m willing to take the chance PM will confirm the form over the larger obstacles rather than guess that Footpad has improved past him.

The one negative is this setback and I’m yet to read any updates on that subject from HDB.


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granger said:
Best overall since Sprinter and best irish novice since Flemenstar:D
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What was your favourite round of jumping from him, Granger?

I'd say his first Fortria personally although he jumped round so majestically in that ultimately doomed Lexus bid when Lynchy just let him bowl along! I still can't believe he folded on the run in :)
 
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TheBear said:
I’m not trying to detract from Footpad as he’s looked a natural over fences. However I think it’s dangerous to put him down as a banker as many are doing.
In PM you have an opponent who has bettered him on more than one occasion over hurdles and has proven he can handle a fence. At 5 times the price I’m willing to take the chance PM will confirm the form over the larger obstacles rather than guess that Footpad has improved past him.

The one negative is this setback and I’m yet to read any updates on that subject from HDB.


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There’s no guessing involved with Footpad, TheBear. It is self-evident that he has achieved plenty more over fences than Petit Mouchoir, and it’s the Gigi horse that has it all to prove now, following his setback.

If he makes it to the Irish Arkle, Footpad will have both a fitness and experience advantage, and PM will need to be all you hope - and more - to worry him. The 1L and 3L defeats in their last two head-to-heads suggest that PM was the better hurdler, and I don’t dispute that....but it is not that much of a superiority, and one I think is rendered largely irrelevant anyway, given the way Footpad has gone over fences.

I have maximum respect for PM, but Footpad is a transformed animal over fences, imo, and he would comfortably be the banker of the meeting for me, if Apples Jade was sent anywhere other than the Mares Hurdle.

:cool:
 
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TheBear said:
I’m not trying to detract from Footpad as he’s looked a natural over fences. However I think it’s dangerous to put him down as a banker as many are doing.
In PM you have an opponent who has bettered him on more than one occasion over hurdles and has proven he can handle a fence. At 5 times the price I’m willing to take the chance PM will confirm the form over the larger obstacles rather than guess that Footpad has improved past him.

The one negative is this setback and I’m yet to read any updates on that subject from HDB.


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We've been watching different races. You can put Footpad's limitations in the bin. He just needs to jump around. 15/8 is a very good price.
 
My worry with Petit M apart from his injury is he was beaten through lack of stamina? speed? class? it doesn't really matter because what was evident is he was already on the map.

Footpad looked like a horse who wasn't quite there yet and has improved no end since.

I will say however if I had backed Footpad and PM turned up I'd be concerned as he has obvious ability
 
Grasshopper said:
I have maximum respect for PM, but Footpad is a transformed animal over fences, imo, and he would comfortably be the banker of the meeting for me, if Apples Jade was sent anywhere other than the Mares Hurdle.

:cool:
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Weren’t exactly the same assumptions being made with Brain Power being made prior to being truly tested in the Henry VIII? Everyone was waxing lyrical about his speed over the fences and how he was a completely different prospect over the larger obstacles. However as soon as he was truly tested the same limitations were exposed.

At this point you’re probably going to throw Death Duty in my face but I’d argue he is in no way a 2 mike horse and probably has now proven to be not as good as they were expecting him to be.

My argument is not that PM is definitely a superior animal, just that he’s value at the prices considering what we know. I’d also say Footpad is poor value over 2 months out from the race and likely to face 2 high quality opponents (Sceau Royal) on the day.


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Aren’t you guilty of making a similar assumption about PM and SR (that they are high quality), based on the same amount of evidence that was available about Brain Power i.e. a sole chase start?

No matter. With novice-chasers, we rarely find out how good they really are/sort-out the pecking-order, until they have met each other at the Spring Festivals, and there is always therefore a certain amount of conjecture involved, when trying to determine which is best going into those Festivals. It’s not an exact science.

I appreciate you are looking at PM from a value perspective, and to be honest, I wouldn’t put you off at the current price. But you don’t need to question what Footpad has achieved, in order to justify your bet. The form of his two novice-chases is there for all to see, and whilst I would personally be disinclined to go in at 15/8, I certainly wouldn’t want to lay that price either. Anyone who has taken a positive view on Footpad is entitled to be perfectly happy with their position, imo. :cool:
 
Sceau Royal has beaten just about every potential Arkle contender this side of the water. Footpad has beaten a decent animal who was running over an inadequate trip and Brelade who has been similarly spanked in two outings since. So no, I don’t think I’m making the same assumption with him. As for PM, I’m relying mainly on his hurdles form where he is a grade 1 winner in open company. Admittedly that doesn’t always work out.

I’ll also admit that searching for value in an Arkle market usually amounts to ignoring the bleeding obvious and being the poorer for it. I’ll happily jump aboard the hype train if Footpad lives up to it in March but from a punting perspective I can back PM each way 3 places 1/4 odds and still walk away with more profit than taking 15/8 even if PM ends up having a front row seat of Footpads arse.


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