Novice Chasers 2017/2018

TheBear said:
Sceau Royal has beaten just about every potential Arkle contender this side of the water. Footpad has beaten a decent animal who was running over an inadequate trip and Brelade who has been similarly spanked in two outings since. So no, I don’t think I’m making the same assumption with him. As for PM, I’m relying mainly on his hurdles form where he is a grade 1 winner in open company. Admittedly that doesn’t always work out.

I’ll also admit that searching for value in an Arkle market usually amounts to ignoring the bleeding obvious and being the poorer for it. I’ll happily jump aboard the hype train if Footpad lives up to it in March but from a punting perspective I can back PM each way 3 places 1/4 odds and still walk away with more profit than taking 15/8 even if PM ends up having a front row seat of Footpads arse.


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Check your sums again!!
 
Yes you are correct BoS. My mistake. It still makes a good bet in my eyes as I believe the win part of the bet is very much alive.


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He's 10/1 with 365, 1/4 odds so if one were that way inclined they could lay off the win part of the bet - there's bits and pieces around at 12.5.

Footpad is no bigger than 15/8 so the 2.5/1 place odds, less the haircut you'd be losing on the win part by laying, less commission and you're probably looking at about the same price for Footpad to win and PM to finish first three. Depending on how much you want on.

But personally I'd prefer the win bet on Footpad as, despite who he's trained by, there appears less risk of him missing the race given the injury to PM. That said I reckon he'll be shades of odds against on the day unless connections decide against running Sceau Royal against him so I'll hold fire for now, having missed the nice prices.
 
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edgt said:
Interesting on The Verdict on RUK today they described Yanworth as "a horse you cannot warm to !"
Very very apt ; they must be guests on here.
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Probably has a lot to do with being a beaten favourite at the last two festivals.
 
Well crack on laying him then.


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And for the record 15/8 Footpad for the Arkle is the single best piece of value left in the ante post markets.
 
I've loaded up on Monalee for the RSA at 6s with Hills. If he misses the Festival it's a void bet so it's semi NRNB
 
Demi Sang was entered up in the Limerick xmas race that Album Photo fell in but was withdrawn at declaration stage . I felt if he was good enough to be given a graded entry straight away he must be useful so when I went to back him this morning I was pleasantly surprised to see a drift from evens to 2/1 and had a good bet.

I thought his goose was cooked in the home straight after a few slow jumps but he certainly has an engine.


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TheBear said:
Well crack on laying him then.


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Retarded reply -I have consistently said since the 19th of November that he won't run in the RSA-I don't feel the need to lay a horse running in 10 weeks time at 9/1.
If you want to have an even grand on the horse running in the RSA get back to me in the next 24 hours and we can arrange it.
 
I'm not the one dishing out absolutes. If you're so sure he won't run what's the difference in laying that at 9/1 or evens?
 
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