Novice Chasers 2018/2019

Kauto Abu said:
She’ll do for me Tanlic. That’s twice now she’s beaten LIT and the 2nd time none of them could live with her jumping. That’s what caused him to make a balls of the third last. She may not be a Cheltenham mare tho. Possible Aintree instead but if she did take them on again I know where my money would be going. Conceding 7lbs to her is a tall ask.
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Greatrex said as much and being targeted at the Dublin racing festival I think
 
Tanlic said:
He was actually over 7 lengths behind and that's where he was 3 out.

The first 2 never asked their mounts for anything until turning in and by that time the ridden Black Op had gained a bit and got within 3 lengths but as soon as the front 2 asked he lost that ground again.

He would certainly have finished closer but for mistakes but you are talking about a genuine group 1 novice hurdler.

That was as good a novice as we have seen this season and good enough for the winner to be made clear fav for the JLT.
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'As good a novice as we've seen this season' is another way of reading it I suppose Tanlic. Black Op made up ground between 3 and 2 out, and then held that distance all the way to the line. Given his jumping varied between sticky and serious mistakes, I'm not sure how you can maintain that was as good a novice as we've seen. I can't have that in any way, and I reckon both of the first two, whilst decent, will be comfortably be beaten in Grade 1 Novice Chases at the Festival.
 
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I should add that I think Lostintranslation looked as though he'd improve again for a step up in trip. The problem Tizzard has is he looks as though he lacks a gear for two and a half in the JLT, and the RSA is looking particularly hot this year if he steps him up in trip.

Defi is now a bit of a conundrum. Not the pace for two miles at the top level, but didn't see out two and a half. Hard to know what the plan would be with him now. Most likely back to two miles you'd think. Great to see him back to something like his best though.
 
The 13.10 at Plumpton in Sunday is a cracker and the highlight of the weekend for me

Great to see Master Dino turning up to take on Knocknanuss, Glenlow, Slate House and a couple of others. Not sure it's a a betting race, but a back to lay of Knocknanuss could be profitable, as think he can only go one way - blasting out from the front
 
Black Op - Abandon ship.

Back to hurdling for rest of season. Adds a new dimension to the Stayers Hurdle!
 
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Last year’s novice-hurdlers being exposed as distinctly ordinary, every time one of them runs. I’d be inclined to oppose them in open company myself.
 
It looks like I'll have to revisit my standard times for Cheltenham.

I've just compared the sectionals between The Worlds End and Cogry in their respective races on 14 December and found the opposite of what I was expecting.

I had TWE 24lbs faster overall based on the standard times I use (the old Chaseform ones) but comparing their sectionals suggests there's something not right somewhere.

I timed the races from the second fence in Cogry's race (the first in TWE's race) and from there to the finish Cogry was about 3 seconds faster. Now his race was a good-sized handicap clearly run at a strong pace which seemed to pick up further when Theatre Territory moved alongside Cogry on the second circuit. Cogry basically then ran the guts out of the mare and it was left to Rolling Dylan and the more conservatively ridden Singlefarmpayment to have a go at Cogry from two out. In a three-way photo Cogry got back up to touch off SFP. He ran the distance from the last to the line a second (four or five lengths) faster than TWE. That's pretty good for a 140-odd handicapper.

On the other hand, TWE was carrying 8lbs more and was never asked a serious question from the moment he burned off the conservatively-ridden Ibis Du Rheu a few fences out. The chances are the latter didn't truly stay or it's possible he wasn't quite over his previous race. But TWE jumped beautifully the whole way round and was never seriously challenged. How much faster he can run I don't know.

My enthusiasm for his RSA chances are somewhat diminished by this discovery but those standard times have served me well over time so I'm not entirely of a mind to give up on the horse. At least the prices I have for the RSA are decent.
 
Very impressive from ok Corral today. JP must be tempted to go RSA now, considering he has nothing else for it and on today's performance and form lines through Rocky's treasure and Santini, they've absolutely nothing to fear. Clearly stays and didn't look to lack any pace today either. Love to see him take on LBAR at the DRF in 3 weeks.
 
While it was visually quite impressive I reckon it’s a long way short of the form Delta Work, Topofthegame, and Santini have shown. Pretty sure Rocky was off his game quite considerably and I’d be surprised if they rerouted OK Corral to the RSA. The fact they got Derek O’Connor over is surely an indication he goes for the NH chase


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He goes 4 miler. Nick Luck asked Henderson in the immediate aftermath and he said i’m sure it’ll be mentioned but he is made for the 4miler.


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I've no doubt that the 4 miler was the plan before today. Just suggesting today's ease of victory might prompt a rethink. I was very impressed today. Tanked through the race and finished off strongly.
 
That's a nice bet you have at 14s kauto. Will go off very short. As edgt says JP has a long affinity with the miler despite his two reverses in the early days with Jack of Trumps and Deep Gale.
 
Just wondering could Winter Escape be JP's RSA horse?!? He's currently not even in the betting. But if you look down through his novice chasers, right now the general consensus for targets would be Le Richbourg for the Arkle, Defi for the JLT and Ok Corral for the 4 miler.
 
Double Handful said:
Just wondering could Winter Escape be JP's RSA horse?!? He's currently not even in the betting. But if you look down through his novice chasers, right now the general consensus for targets would be Le Richbourg for the Arkle, Defi for the JLT and Ok Corral for the 4 miler.
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Winter Escape surely a JLT horse? Defi target will be ground-dependent to an extent, but can see JP running him in either Arkle or JLT, even if he has another runner in race.
 
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