Novice Chasers 2018/2019

Looking forward to it. Fences should be easier for Defi. If he doesn't take to it this time, I'd stick him back over hurdles. They should help White Moon too.
 
Going at Exeter now soft, heavy in places, after 6mm of rain overnight with 5mm more expected before racing


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What the **** happened at the start there. Topofthegame has run a remarkable race all told but well done Defi backers


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Still very novicey but I couldn't ignore him at that price!! He was possibly the best juvenile hurdler we've seen in a while before being hit like most of Hobbs horses last year with a bug. Throw out last years form on that basis and take on the fact that the yard think he's one of the best they've had. He still needs plenty of schooling before he's ready to take on Cheltenham again but this should have given him a much needed confidence boost and he's in the right hands.
 
viking said:
What the **** happened at the start there. Topofthegame has run a remarkable race all told but well done Defi backers


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I done him at 40/1 in running after the start & thought I was in business in the home straight.


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Topofthegame was ultra impressive there though and 365 were slow to amend their prices in line with the rest of the industry so I managed to get some of their 25/1 for the RSA. Now a more-in-line 14/1

That could be a hot race but 25s was too big on the back of the performance, as long as those antics at the start don't become the norm.
 
Yes really taken with Bags Groove and the Kauto/Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day could be a cracker if him, Santini and La Bague Au Roi turn up
 
Vinndication entered over 2m4f at Cheltenham on Saturday. Clean sheet so far but all on sharpish right handed tracks. Wonder if they'll give him a sighter after cotton woolling him last year.
 
Just to put some flesh on the bones of the remark I made the other day about the Henry VII being faster than the Tingle Creek...

How much impact the rain had is obviously very hard to quantify but I think it's impossible to get away from the conclusion that the novices' race is extremely strong form. Bear in mind Nico de B's immediate post-race remarks that "Ruby made it a serious test in the conditions" he must have felt they were going fast. He described it as proper championship race pace.

Timing them from the first fence, Ornua immediately went faster. By the time he got to fence 4 he was already 20 lengths in front of the Tingle Creek pace. Then UDS started closing the gap but he didn't sustain that progress. He got it down to 5 lengths within two fences but lost a little ground again before pulling it back to be still five lengths down by fence 10. He held the gap until the Pond fence, after which Ornua pulled ten lengths ahead again before Dynamite Dollars added another five lengths after the last.

So purely on raw times, Dynamite Dollars has covered the ground from the Pond fence some five lengths faster than Altior.

I reckon that even allowing for the softer ground, it has to be a top-drawer run from the novice.

I'm not saying he's better than Altior; just that he must be very good.

I reckon Dynamite Dollars and Ornua must both be very good. Ornua deserves special praise for still being in front jumping the last given that by then the other pace horse Diakali was stone last and losing ground. Ornua had broken him by the time they were leaving the back straight. There's a fair chance the winner will improve again, given Nicholls's post race remarks about the progress he's made since his defeat by Lalor. Again, I'm not suggesting the latter has run his race and no doubt there will be no shortage of punters firmly of the belief that he is better than Dynamite Dollars based on their previous meeting at Cheltenham.

It looks like we may have a very strong cohort of novices: Dynamite Dollars, Ornua, Lalor and Kalashnikov plus the other Irish horses who may well be thought better than Ornua.

Mouthwatering doesn't begin to describe it.
 
FWIW, I think Ornua will be forgotten throughout the winter. Might not see him again I would think in deep ground, and it was a serious effort in those conditions. I think, as mentioned on another thread, he is outstanding ew value for the Arkle. Glad to see the analysis backing it up.
 
Cracking midweek novice chase at Newcastle this afternoon

I've always had a soft spot for Ravenhill Road, so plumped for him as thought jumped great first time bar the one mistake, has a decent weight turn around with Hawk High and will hopefully go very close. Stowaway Magic an obvious danger
 
Desert Orchid said:
I reckon Dynamite Dollars and Ornua must both be very good. Ornua deserves special praise for still being in front jumping the last given that by then the other pace horse Diakali was stone last and losing ground. Ornua had broken him by the time they were leaving the back straight. There's a fair chance the winner will improve again, given Nicholls's post race remarks about the progress he's made since his defeat by Lalor. Again, I'm not suggesting the latter has run his race and no doubt there will be no shortage of punters firmly of the belief that he is better than Dynamite Dollars based on their previous meeting at Cheltenham.
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I've had a look at the numbers aside from the times (since they don't really man anything other than the form is strong) and I reckon if Dynamite Dollars and Lalor meet again I would fancy DD to confirm the form. My figures say Lalor has run below form but not by as much as apparently generally believed. He may be better on better ground and he may be better after a break but why shouldn't DD be better on less atrocious ground and what's to say he isn't just on a steeper curve?

The chances are the market will favour Lalor, fuelled to an extent by sympathy and/or admiration for his trainer, who will continue to be fawned over by the TV clowns.

I'll be happy to back DD to confirm the form.
 
Perpetual said:
Cracking midweek novice chase at Newcastle this afternoon

I've always had a soft spot for Ravenhill Road, so plumped for him as thought jumped great first time bar the one mistake, has a decent weight turn around with Hawk High and will hopefully go very close. Stowaway Magic an obvious danger
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With you there on Ravenhill Road. He disappointed last year after a very promising debut but I’m hoping chasing will bring out the best in him


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