Novice Chasers 2019/20

Double Handful said:
Wouldn't touch Samcro now myself. After the fall 2 out against Fakir, I was very much still in the Samcro camp. But he's just shown too many negatives for me now.

The resolve and stamina you reference from his Ballymore win will be 2 year old form come the festival in March - and I've come round to the view that he's just not the same horse since his long lay off last season. Each to their own, but not a bet for me in RSA at this point.
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Imo, it's wrong to write him off as gutless for being outjumped by Fakir D and outsped by Faugheen. He's only a 7yo and I've little doubt he'll eventually prove as good over fences as he was over hurdles - given a distance of ground
 
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The way he finished in Limerick having travelled over Faugheen turning in suggests that Fakir would have beaten him at Fairyhouse. It wasnt only over fences where he cut out. I cannot see him out battling anything, especially up a hill.
 
HawkWing said:
The way he finished in Limerick having travelled over Faugheen turning in suggests that Fakir would have beaten him at Fairyhouse. It wasnt only over fences where he cut out. I cannot see him out battling anything, especially up a hill.
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Just watched the race back, an it's pretty much as I called it; Samcro makes no ground on the 3rd home from 2 out - Faugheen does!
RP comments confirm that impression,succinctly: ridden and no extra between last 2 where not quicken, no impression on winner (tchd 8/13)
Samcro's not 'dogged' anything; he just doesn't have the speed at such distances.
 
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Best of luck with that faith. This was a horse campaigned as a champion hurdler last year. It sounds like the last hope for the horse is as a 2021 national candidate. Even if that works out it remains a huge climbdown. I didn't mean to suggest he dogged it, he always was a weak finisher, and there has been nothing in the last two years to suggest otherwise. He won't out battle anything up a hill - even horses of far less talent.

Aren't we well beyond using RP in running comments as justification.
 
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If faugheen had fallen three out, the discussion would be whether samcro should be favourite for the jlt or arkle.
 
The RSA is there for the taking for Champ the way I see it. Expect him to shorten more when he wins the dipper on New year's day
 
HawkWing said:
Best of luck with that faith. This was a horse campaigned as a champion hurdler last year. It sounds like the last hope for the horse is as a 2021 national candidate. Even if that works out it remains a huge climbdown. I didn't mean to suggest he dogged it, he always was a weak finisher, and there has been nothing in the last two years to suggest otherwise. He won't out battle anything up a hill - even horses of far less talent.
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That's the nub of the matter; Samcro never was a top class 2 miler, and his whole profile shows he lacks a change of gear at the top level, unless he's given a stern ebough test. He still retains an abundance of class, and will probably prove a much better fencer, given the same criterion. The RSA may well prove to be that test.
 
reet hard said:
That's the nub of the matter; Samcro never was a top class 2 miler, and his whole profile shows he lacks a change of gear at the top level, unless he's given a stern ebough test. He still retains an abundance of class, and will probably prove a much better fencer, given the same criterion. The RSA may well prove to be that test.
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ps. SL inference on the race :
led narrowly 3 out, joined again before straight, ridden and not fluent 2 out, no impression before last, kept on one pace tchd 8/13
Maybe we're all wrong? :)
 
No, he finds nothing once off the bridle - be that due to a low lying lung infection or lack of fortitude or something else who knows.

He will need to win on the bridle and that can be tricky at Cheltenham. I'd trust my own judgement (and yours) than RP or SL comments.
 
reet hard said:
That's the nub of the matter; Samcro never was a top class 2 miler, and his whole profile shows he lacks a change of gear at the top level, unless he's given a stern ebough test. He still retains an abundance of class, and will probably prove a much better fencer, given the same criterion. The RSA may well prove to be that test.
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I think that is the case, reet! I am leaning to the side of thinking that 2m and 2m3f for Samcro is just too quick for him and he doesn't have the pace to contend with those faster animals at those distances. I'm not sure looking back at his Ballymore win, that he really found that much when push came to shove coming to the last, he just did what he needed to do without having a turn of foot and didn't really press on from Black Op.
 
Who am I defending? The only reason he is being hoped as a stayer now is that he appears tripless. He would not be considered the RSA - giving that gigginstown had the 1-2 in the 3m grade 1 in the same week. Had faugheen not been in the race the hype would be off the charts.
 
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Don’t take this as me defending him because I’m equally unconvinced, but his points wins were over three miles in very impressive times. His Ballymore win is his best form under rules, but he surely wants a trip to be seen to he’s effect. All the dalliances between two and two and a half are surely best ignored until we have conclusive evidence either way over three, aren’t they?
 
If you give him the Don Cossack rule of chance, he could of course still end up being a very good horse

What should be a matter of concern at this stage is that after 2 year of hurdling and 3 chases, no-one is still any the wiser as to his trip

It is peculiar that GE hasn't tried him at 3m yet
 
granger said:
If you give him the Don Cossack rule of chance, he could of course still end up being a very good horse

What should be a matter of concern at this stage is that after 2 year of hurdling and 3 chases, no-one is still any the wiser as to his trip

It is peculiar that GE hasn't tried him at 3m yet
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Sure what would Elliot know? I do think that if you have a Gold Cup horse on your hands, you keep your powder dry until needed. Horse was never as good as the hype (how could he be) and got sick. I dont think he has recovered but whether he was ever as good as he was lauded, I dont know.
 
They never got to the bottom of his problems last season so it's hard to be confident that they've found a cure. You wouldn't crab him for it but time is possibly showing that his wins as a novice hurdler were mainly over stayers or future chasers rather than top open hurdlers. People invested a lot of emotional attachment in him a couple of years ago and it's sometimes difficult to give up on that.
 
Crowned the king before his coronation

He beat elegant escape in his point so Gordon obviously loved EE at the time

Doubt he goes straight to Cheltenham and not sure we will see him at DRF

Get a win into him and RSA maybe but owners have plenty of other options there too
 
granger said:
If you give him the Don Cossack rule of chance, he could of course still end up being a very good horse

What should be a matter of concern at this stage is that after 2 year of hurdling and 3 chases, no-one is still any the wiser as to his trip

It is peculiar that GE hasn't tried him at 3m yet
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Wouldn't be the first RSA winner never to have run over 3m previously - Denman, for instance.
 
Susannah/Rich Ricci's colours to be carried by the Venetia Williams trained French import Royale Pagaille who holds an entry in a novices' chase at Chepstow on Friday. Already placed in a Listed chase in France and has been given a handicap mark of 137.
 
City Island out to redeem himself today after the awful round of jumping at Leopardstown.

Surely plans will be reconsidered if he fails again


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viking said:
City Island out to redeem himself today after the awful round of jumping at Leopardstown.

Surely plans will be reconsidered if he fails again


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A better round of jumping but clearly just out for a confidence boost


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Diamond Geezer said:
Susannah/Rich Ricci's colours to be carried by the Venetia Williams trained French import Royale Pagaille who holds an entry in a novices' chase at Chepstow on Friday. Already placed in a Listed chase in France and has been given a handicap mark of 137.
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Also entered at Exeter on Tuesday (4.10)


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