Novice Chasers 2019/20

Intriguing novice chase at Haydock today. You can build a case for all four as reflected in the prices.
I really hope Windsor Avenue wins though, hoping his class will see him through. Cheltenham the plan if he does win according to Ellison.
 
Windsor Ave and Knight in Dubai are close on a line through Ballymoy (although WA conceded weight the time he beat the Twister horse and KiD was levels with him) and yet the Skelton horse is slightly shorter. That's to be expected as most of Skelton's are under priced.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Minella Indo to go straight to the RSA now and won't be entered in the National Hunt Chase.
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Off Twitter so hadn't seen the quote. I wonder why they didn't go the same route as Monalee and run at the DRF. Maybe the break before the festival last year swayed them to give the horse a bigger gap.
 
Thought she got outpaced before staying on. The way she was going to hammer Sinoria before she fell at Cork suggests that she is 'low key' very good. Was expecting a bit of a classier effort yesterday eventhough in the end she pulled clear.
 
She was backed like the Cork performance was real. Would they just give her a sighter in the Marsh Novice as a prep for the Mares Chase 2021?
 
Very brave on Carefully Selected given that he's not even qualified for the race yet.

Can't see too many surprise omissions. I Can't Explain now with Bailey and Nicholls/Donlon with another good looking French import we've not yet seen or heard of to date.
 
John Hales’ £320,000 mare for Dan Skelton, Maire Banrigh is confirmed targeting the Arkle.

One that will go short in the betting, but be off the bridle going down to the start.
 
The bookies seem to be taking different views of Carefully Selected for the NH Chase today. Shortened with some firms, obviously on the basis that he’s now qualified, he’s been lengthened by others.

I’d be in the latter camp and at around 7/2 he’d be my lay of the meeting if he’s that price on the day.
 
wilsonl said:
The bookies seem to be taking different views of Carefully Selected for the NH Chase today. Shortened with some firms, obviously on the basis that he’s now qualified, he’s been lengthened by others.

I’d be in the latter camp and at around 7/2 he’d be my lay of the meeting if he’s that price on the day.
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I'd base very little on today. Suspect he's had next to no work in past 2 weeks. It was 100% about just qualifying. Not saying I'd back at current prices, but wouldn't want to lay it either!
 
Double Handful said:
I'd base very little on today. Suspect he's had next to no work in past 2 weeks. It was 100% about just qualifying. Not saying I'd back at current prices, but wouldn't want to lay it either!
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Short of work or not - and I agree today was simply about qualifying - he’ll need to improve his jumping in what is an increasingly tough race to win at the Festival.

I’d take Champagne Classic over him any day and hopefully that’s the route Elliott takes.
 
Arkle - Nothing
NHC - Danny Whizzbang maybe
RSA - Champ
Marsh - Mister Fisher, Black Op.

I mean wow, Is that the worst group of British novice chasers ever? Nicholls has nothing this year.
 
I've topped up my Arkle AP position on Fakir D'oudaires by taking some of the 14/1 with Skybet about him winning on Saturday and following up at Cheltenham. They yet again have the same thing priced up twice; one at 10/1 and the other at 14/1.

Could look a bad bet by Saturday evening as it's a particularly strong looking race but I'm convinced he's better than the last day when beaten by Notebook.
 
wilsonl said:
I've topped up my Arkle AP position on Fakir D'oudaires by taking some of the 14/1 with Skybet about him winning on Saturday and following up at Cheltenham. They yet again have the same thing priced up twice; one at 10/1 and the other at 14/1.

Could look a bad bet by Saturday evening as it's a particularly strong looking race but I'm convinced he's better than the last day when beaten by Notebook.
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Fakir is a tough one. No real excuses last day imo and he won't be getting the weight allowance at Cheltenham.
I'm finding it difficult to keep the faith
 
Way I see it at the moment target wise

Arkle:
Notebook
Fakir - could go Marsh 50/50?
Cash Back
Brewin'
Global Citizen

RSA:
Champ
Minella Indo
Allaho - could go Marsh 65/35
Battle'
Sam Brown

Marsh:
Faugheen - could go RSA or miss Festival 40/30/30
Easy Game
Itchy Feet
Mister Fisher - could go Arkle 70/30
Black Op
 
Marsh opens the Thursday though and potentially could be watered really nice ground. That said I'd have one or two outstaying him.
 
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