Novice Chasers 2019/20

Euronymous said:
Way I see it at the moment target wise

Arkle:
Notebook
Fakir - could go Marsh 50/50?
Cash Back
Brewin'
Global Citizen
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I think Espirit Du Large is being overlooked for the Arkle. Especially at the 20/1 still available out there.
A lot of people suggesting that Notebook and Cashback had a very hard race at DRF that could leave a mark.....
Espirit Du Large won the King Henry VIII at Sandown in the exact same time as Defi Du Seuil won the Tingle Creek - over same C&D on the same day.
That's very strong form for a novice 2 Mile chaser, surely? Interested to see if Nube Negra can frank that formline tomorrow.
 
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Double Handful said:
I think Espirit Du Large is being overlooked for the Arkle. Especially at the 20/1 still available out there.
A lot of people suggesting that Notebook and Cashback had a very hard race at DRF that could leave a mark.....
Espirit Du Large won the King Henry VIII at Sandown in the exact same time as Defi Du Seuil won the Tingle Creek - over same C&D on the same day.
That's very strong form for a novice 2 Mile chaser, surely? Interested to see if Nube Negra can frank that formline tomorrow.
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There are 6 weeks between the DRF and the Arkle. Notebook is without question the best ante post bet in any of the graded races right now.
 
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Double Handful said:
I think Espirit Du Large is being overlooked for the Arkle. Especially at the 20/1 still available out there.
A lot of people suggesting that Notebook and Cashback had a very hard race at DRF that could leave a mark.....
Espirit Du Large won the King Henry VIII at Sandown in the exact same time as Defi Du Seuil won the Tingle Creek - over same C&D on the same day.
That's very strong form for a novice 2 Mile chaser, surely? Interested to see if Nube Negra can frank that formline tomorrow.
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What marks Nube Negra? Wouldn’t mind him in one of the handicaps
 
Slim said:
There are 6 weeks between the DRF and the Arkle. Notebook is without question the best ante post bet in any of the graded races right now.
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I can't have him. He has only ever ran one bad race and that was the only time he left Ireland in the Ballymore at the festival last year. He kept changing legs through the race and was lugging to the right. I'm not sure he's suited to Cheltenham?
 
swedish chef said:
I can't have him. He has only ever ran one bad race and that was the only time he left Ireland in the Ballymore at the festival last year. He kept changing legs through the race and was lugging to the right. I'm not sure he's suited to Cheltenham?
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Have you seen him become a man before your eyes this term?
 
Double J said:
What marks Nube Negra? Wouldn’t mind him in one of the handicaps
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tiggers1972 said:
153 DJ at the moment.
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153 would be as good as top weight for the Grand Annual, which would be an extremely difficult task for a Novice.
Also, he's not currently entered in the Arkle - or any novice chase for that matter.

And Skelton has 'Not that Fuisse', that ran today, entered in the Arkle and JLT - but he's hardly that level.
Today looked like a 'protect his mark' ride on NTF, but at OR 130 he's not high enough to get in to any festival H'Cap.

Aintree possibly the main target with Nube Negre - after tomorrow.
 
Slim said:
There are 6 weeks between the DRF and the Arkle. Notebook is without question the best ante post bet in any of the graded races right now.
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swedish chef said:
I can't have him. He has only ever ran one bad race and that was the only time he left Ireland in the Ballymore at the festival last year. He kept changing legs through the race and was lugging to the right. I'm not sure he's suited to Cheltenham?
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I'm a fan of Notebook and what he's done so far over fences has been very impressive.
However, that was a tough tough race at DRF. Him and Cashback were battered all the way up the run in. It was maximum effort!
DRF to Cheltenham is 5 weeks 2 days - and it's not unreasonable to factor in the DRF could possibly have taken a lot out of him.
That combined with his Cheltenham run last year, he's not a bet for me at 3/1 right now. Purely on price/value basis.
How much shorter can Notebook get come off time on the Tuesday?
 
I can't tell you precisely why I haven't taken to Notebook, but I'm not sure the form is what people want it to be. The times he's won his races in haven't been that special either, and there's a chance that he could be taken off his feet if they go championship pace.

I also think the stable second string Put the Kettle On is a better bet at 25/1 anyway. She' already been over to Cheltenham this season and proven she's not a 25/1 shot. If she wasn't the perceived second string I reckon she'd be no more than half her current price. I'm also intrigued by Skelton's Maire Banrigh. Brewinupastorm is a must each way bet at 10's or so. Global Citizen and Rouge Vif (maybe proven otherwise tomorrow) are no back numbers either at big prices. I also wouldn't be shocked if Willie dropped Tornado Flyer in here either. There's some cross-form with Eclair de Beufeu that puts him close to Notebook over 2 miles, and he looks better suited by 2 miles to me. 40/1 is huge if he runs here.

Also I've had the feeling that this race is going to be a boilover for some time now, and I'll be backing in the each way market accordingly. None of those at the head of the market have convinced.
 
Might pay to keep an eye on the novice chase at Plumpton today, the winner wins a £60,000 bonus if it goes on to win any steeplechase at the Cheltenham Festival. This is a five race series and the four previous winners were Champagne Court (Jeremy Scott), Lisp (Alan King), Highest Sun (Colin Tizzard) and De Plotting Shed (Suzi Best)

Today's race

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/44/plumpton/2020-02-10/749388/
 
Double Handful said:
I'm a fan of Notebook and what he's done so far over fences has been very impressive.
However, that was a tough tough race at DRF. Him and Cashback were battered all the way up the run in. It was maximum effort!
DRF to Cheltenham is 5 weeks 2 days - and it's not unreasonable to factor in the DRF could possibly have taken a lot out of him.
That combined with his Cheltenham run last year, he's not a bet for me at 3/1 right now. Purely on price/value basis.
How much shorter can Notebook get come off time on the Tuesday?
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This is the great thing about consensus. What evidence is there he had a hard race bar all the pundits saying it? What trainer would run at DRF if the gap between the two festivals was not enough to recover. What formline beats Notebook at Cheltenham? He is a 3/1 shot, quite remarkable.
 
There was a similar train of thought after last years DRF, that it would effect the Irish horses and ultimately bar the concrete in the gold cup, they all fared well

Henry pulled out Minella on account of the ground, so I'm thinking Notebook is a horse that he retains plenty of faith in to be tough enough to take 2 races

Best horse in the race, 3/1. If you get that on the day, get rich
 
HawkWing said:
Apples Jade didnt. Min didnt.
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Apples Jade hasn’t done much since, Cheltenham just may not be here track.

Min was given an awful ride. I say awful ride, they got the tactics wrong, openly admitted. Both poor examples.

I’ve got a couple of slips with Notebook at 25s on, they’re comfortably my best bets and I hold some nice other dockets (and some poor ones)

It Notebook is 3s come the day or bigger, I’ll be certainly topping up and building some nice multiples around it.
 
Only 2 horses won at both the DRF and Cheltenham Festivals last year. Envoi Allen and Klassical Dream.

That's 2 out of 15. Granted there are varying reasons for that. Some winners at DRF didn't make it to Cheltenham and others ran below par or got injured etc. But overall it's a low return.

Bringing it back to Notebook. Yes he's 3/1 now with some books, but he's 11/4 NRNB with others. I believe you'll still get 11/4 or 3/1 on the day. Hence why backing him now at 3/1 without NRNB concession, or at 11/4 with the NRNB safety net, doesn't interest me.
 
Double Handful said:
Only 2 horses won at both the DRF and Cheltenham Festivals last year. Envoi Allen and Klassical Dream.

That's 2 out of 15. Granted there are varying reasons for that. Some winners at DRF didn't make it to Cheltenham and others ran below par or got injured etc. But overall it's a low return.

Bringing it back to Notebook. Yes he's 3/1 now with some books, but he's 11/4 NRNB with others. I believe you'll still get 11/4 or 3/1 on the day. Hence why backing him now at 3/1 without NRNB concession, or at 11/4 with the NRNB safety net, doesn't interest me.
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Is your only reason to take him on the hard race? What beats him? Why do you assume he will be 3/1 on the day?
 
Two winners followed up from last years festival (Klassical Dream and Envoi Allen)

The Irish trained Gold Cup first and second, Champion hurdle winner, Arkle Winner, Ballymore winners did not run in the DRF.

Horses that flopped having won/run well at DRF included Apples Jade, Min, Vision d'Honneur, Hardline, Rhinestone, Bellshill before we start to look at the handicaps.
 
Slim said:
Is your only reason to take him on the hard race? What beats him? Why do you assume he will be 3/1 on the day?
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If Notebook is the best out there, and he may be, its a poor year. I think if you had said to WPM that Cash Back would turn out to be his best 2m novice this year, he would have been disgusted. (Melon, Laurina and Klassical Dream) I'd have Ichy Feet, Brewinup a storm over them, especially at the odds.
 
Notebook is rightly favourite but Cash Back is over twice the price for a three-quarter length margin the last time. 7/1 NRNB is very fair.

Willie is a creature of habit and it's worth noting that his runners in previous years in the beginners chase that Cash Back won in November were:
2017 Al Boum Photo
2016 Min
2015 Douvan
2014 Vautour
 
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Double J said:
Apples Jade hasn’t done much since, Cheltenham just may not be here track.

Min was given an awful ride. I say awful ride, they got the tactics wrong, openly admitted. Both poor examples.

I’ve got a couple of slips with Notebook at 25s on, they’re comfortably my best bets and I hold some nice other dockets (and some poor ones)

It Notebook is 3s come the day or bigger, I’ll be certainly topping up and building some nice multiples around it.
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All this and more
 
He’ll be 11/8 6/4 on the day. I’m not taking the 3/1 cause j don’t need to, but if he is on the day he gets topped up.

He’s beat the best of the Irish. The best of the English is, well yeah, there isn’t one. I give Brewin’upastorm a squeeze at placing but that’s about it.

I’m not talking about last years DRF form. But what beats Notebook? You find something in the Arkle form that would beat Notebook?

Itchy Feet goes to the Marsh
 
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Slim said:
Is your only reason to take him on the hard race? What beats him? Why do you assume he will be 3/1 on the day?
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No, that's not what I'm saying at all. I like Notebook and think what he has done so far has been top class. And I would love to be on at a bigger price and still can see myself having him onside on the day.

But right now at 3/1 antepost, he doesn't interest me as a bet.

Why will he be 11/4 or 3/1 on the day.... Because I don't see what can happen between now and then for him to shorten significantly. I'd think you'll get that price at least early in the morning anyway.

There are a few other minor factors (As well as the very hard race at DRF) that put me off backing him now Antepost.

He might not even get there.
His run at Cheltenham last year was really poor.
His antics before the start at DRF.


Overall I don't disagree with your analysis of the Arkle as a race and his obvious chance in it. I just think all things considered, there's no need, or significant advantage, to backing him right now.
 
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