Novice Chasers 2020 / 2021

The fall was an inevitability, not an abberation during an otherwise solid jumping performance.

I cannot have him even with the weight concession, which I confess is greater than I realised, but will (I think) make little odds whhen AF jumps a fence the way he does.
 
Grasshopper said:
The fall was an inevitability, not an abberation during an otherwise solid jumping performance.

I cannot have him even with the weight concession, which I confess is greater than I realised, but will (I think) make little odds whhen AF jumps a fence the way he does.
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I didn't realise the weight concession would be as big as it is going to be, but I agree with you, Asterion Forlonge just didn't look a natural chaser at Limerick and he wasn't quick over his fences, where as Envoi Allen will take lengths out of the field you'd imagine.
 
Grasshopper said:
The fall was an inevitability, not an abberation during an otherwise solid jumping performance.
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from memory i didn't remember his jumping to be bad so i've just had a quick rewatch and his jumping is generally fine before he tips out? shortens up to a couple and has to fiddle over but does without much fuss. wasn't even a single error before he tipped up and definitely not an "inevitability" he'd fall.

https://www.racingtv.com/videos/wat...etting-exchange-faugheen-novice-chase-grade-1
 
Maybe I’m being harsh, but I want no part of a horse that shifts as much as he does at an obstacle.

He just lacks fluency, and that’s a must-have in Grade 1 chases - novice or otherwise. Not doubting his engine or class - but for me, he is one to oppose over fences, whilst he’s still being talked-up as a top prospect.
 
his jumping doesn't look naturally great i agree, but i don't see him as a fall waiting to happen that ploughs through his fences like a Great Field (;)), more someone who may lose ground to better horses who jump well like envoi

i think current odds of 5/2 aren't that bad over a horse with his engine that is getting 11lb with the added upside he may end up not even facing EA. have to think there's no chance AF gets taken out either as this is a much better race for him than anything at the DRF given it's going right handed.
 
In Great Field’s defence, at least he used to fall like a man who was high on life, and not a toddler taking its first steps.

;)
 
I'm backing the Mullins horse. That's a lot of weight and until he came down at Limerick his jumping was ok. I'll Probably back to partial lay it as Envoi Allen certainly drifted IR during the Drinmore as for just a split second it looked like Assemble was gonna make him work for it.
 
granger said:
11lbs is big

I think one of them ducks it
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really does make no sense for AF to duck it other than it's a bit quick after a fall but if he didn't seem ok at home he probably doesn't even hold an entry. they could wait for the DRF to see how he goes left handed but surely it's better to keep him right handed until it's absolutely necessary.
 
Nobody has blinked yet , still time for a stone bruise or a didn't eat up but if the 2 go to post EA must be jumping out off his skin because you just wouldn't risk him otherwise.
 
From what I”ve seen he’s always jumping out of his skin. Wish I could earwig the riding instructions if they both turn up.
 
Anyone tempted to back Asterion Forlonge just needs to think how much a better animal Envoi Allen is over hurdles, and then remember the fences are an asset to him and a hindrance to Asterion Forlonge. Receiving 11lbs isn't enough for Asterion Forlonge to win unless Envoi Allen has a significant off day, or he fluffs his lines in the jumping department.
 
Copied from the A/P thread:

Top novices on RPRs as per the Weekender regular feature:

Shishkin 170
Chatham Street Lad 163
Envoi Allen 162
Royale Pagaille 160
Protektorat 160
Monkfish 160
 
Maruco said:
Anyone tempted to back Asterion Forlonge just needs to think how much a better animal Envoi Allen is over hurdles, and then remember the fences are an asset to him and a hindrance to Asterion Forlonge. Receiving 11lbs isn't enough for Asterion Forlonge to win unless Envoi Allen has a significant off day, or he fluffs his lines in the jumping department.
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Are they a hindrance? Seems a bit early for that call.

And the best race AF ran in as a hurdler he probably covered 50 yards more than any other horse.
 
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Euronymous said:
They really are such a waste of time in trying to evaluate a good race.
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I think they serve a purpose. They often highlight form that might otherwise be overlooked.

Once you get them all in the same ballpark then our own different interpretations of the form can kick in to allow us to sort the wheat from the chaff.
 
With novices though so many are just too un-exposed. Before last year's RSA Copperhead was rated 8ls higher than Minella Indo
 
Euronymous said:
Are they a hindrance? Seems a bit early for that call.

And the best race AF ran in as a hurdler he probably covered 50 yards more than any other horse.
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To my eye anything in front of AF is a hinderance Euro. He'd **** up in an Ascot Gold Cup though! :lol:
 
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I've managed to cash out my Shan Blue - RSA - each way bet. I backed him before his boxing day win, thinking the RSA would be his target.

Fair play to Bet 365, who made a decent cash out offer, which given the trainer said he's unlikely to run in the RSA, I thought was more than fair.

You go back ten years or so, and the anti-post betting landscape was so different, almost vile or criminal how unfair it was.
 
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Marb said:
I've managed to cash out my Shan Blue - RSA - each way bet. I backed him before his boxing day win, thinking the RSA would be his target.

Fair play to Bet 365, who made a decent cash out offer, which given the trainer said he's unlikely to run in the RSA, I thought was more than fair.

You go back ten years or so, and the anti-post betting landscape was so different, almost vile or criminal how unfair it was.
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At least you stood a chance of getting a decent ante-post price 10 years ago


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