Novice Chases 2021-22

On the basis that we’re at the season’s mid point and yet despite being entered numerous times, Appreciate It hadn’t be seen over fences it’s not that surprising but one can’t help but feel if he was trained by Henderson there would have been an outcry over the lack of update before now over one so short in ante post markets.

Something obviously hasn’t been right for a while in his (re)conversion to fences.
 
I'd rather not go through the argument again, Lee..........but the difference with Appreciate It, is that Mullins hasn't issued any prior, upbeat reports about his well-being. There have been some entries for the horse, but otherwise, there has been no news until today. Also, Mullins does not have a track-record of ducking challenges with his best horses - quite the opposite, in fact.

You are trying to compare an apple with an orange, imo.
 
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I’d agree with most of that Grass but (and I’m most likely talking through my pocket when I say this), having a fairly nice position on him for the Arkle it would have been nice to have heard something before now to suggest he wasn’t pleasing them over fences because I find it hard to believe it’s a coincidence that he’s suddenly not quite right so is to revert to hurdles when he’s missed many opportunities to jump a fence this season.

He’d be 9 before he were to take in any of the end of 22/23 season novice chases if they went that route so it’s unlikely they’ve elected to protect his novice status for the sake of missing 2 or 3 months of this season.

Maybe we (or least I) just expect too much transparency from trainers regarding these things.
 
Take my advice and leave the Arkle well alone.......if ever a race looked like it's going to throw up a shock it's this one. You heard it here first :whistle:
 
Trainers are pretty secretive by nature, I think Lee....or at least, the public won't be informed until connections have been........and I think that's fair enough. In the case of Appreciate It, having missed so many entries, there was always some level of doubt starting to creep in with him...........dare I say it, in much the same way as an element of doubt is starting to creep in with Shishkin (there certainly is for me).

All I seek is some degree of consistency from trainers. If a horse is in trouble or behind schedule, then it's probably best to say nothing at all, until you're ready to give the bad news. I can live with that.

I acknowledge the 'They're not machines' argument, but when upbeat bulletins are issued one week, only to be followed a week later with reports about said horse having been held up in work etc - that's the part which irritates.
 
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Is it possible that Appreciate It's work is such that they think he has a serious chance of winning the Champion Hurdle?
 
Could it be that Appreciate It didn't school well enough over fences?

On to Kempton, Ahoy Senor v Bravemansgame is tasty if they both turn up
 
The thing that really irritates me is when a trainer has given a very upbeat message about a horse prior to a race and than tells you after the race that they’d left plenty to work with and it was only 90% there.
 
Not as funny as the conspiracy theory that they took Istabraq to Cheltenham for the final time to lay him -some nutters on the internet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is it possible that Appreciate It's work is such that they think he has a serious chance of winning the Champion Hurdle?
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Not convinced, DO. As a wide-margin winner of a Supreme, he’d be in the ball-park anyway, and I doubt he’d be working so well that they would find-out anything particularly new.

My suspicion is that the horse has had some sort of setback, probably won’t be ready to race (if at all) until the DRF, and they’d rather not send him to an Arkle with a single chase run under his belt. The switch back to hurdling makes sense, simply from a calendar perspective, and ai reckon that’s all there is to it.
 
This is the perfect track/trip for them to meet again.

A stiff 3m I’d take Ahoy Senor any day whereas 2m4f I’d be with Bravemansgame. But 3m at Kempton on decent ground, it’s very tough to call.
 
It should be quite a race, for sure. Really looking forward to it. I'm not sure BMG should be odds-on, I have to say, but it's a no-bet race for me.
 
Gaz's Way De Solzen said:
What are we all thinking of Ahoy Senor vs Bravemansgame at Kempton over Christmas?

Really looking forward to this, pretty similar in type too. Should be a cracker!
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Despite a couple of sketchy jumps at Newbury Ahoy Senor looked very good although he did have a tendency to jump right a little so may be better off at Kempton anyway. Brave mans game looked overall more impressive in the jumping department but started to jump left as he was starting to tire towards the end. With the proven stamina and the right handed track I'd think Ahoy senor would probably get the best of the argument and probably by quite some way on Boxing day but I'd be happy to side against him any race at Cheltenham atm.
 
You got my interest up Danny but I don't understand your logic.

Of course I could be wrong but Bravemansgame looks to be a far superior jumper to me and I reckon after 4 or 5 fences this race will be done and dusted

I can see Bravemansgame immediately puting Ahoy Senor under pressure by getting from A to B much quicker.

I don't like the way Ahoy Senor jumps and not just because he jumps left. It like he almost baloons his fences and Kempton is not a track to be wasting time going from A to B

So I don't think he has the jumping abilty to keep tabs on Bravemansgame who should take this easily.

There's not too many takers at his current price on the machine so I am loitering in the hope to get 10/11 or evens before backing him
 
Tanlic said:
You got my interest up Danny but I don't understand your logic.

Of course I could be wrong but Bravemansgame looks to be a far superior jumper to me and I reckon after 4 or 5 fences this race will be done and dusted

I can see Bravemansgame immediately puting Ahoy Senor under pressure by getting from A to B much quicker.

I don't like the way Ahoy Senor jumps and not just because he jumps left. It like he almost baloons his fences and Kempton is not a track to be wasting time going from A to B

So I don't think he has the jumping abilty to keep tabs on Bravemansgame who should take this easily.

There's not too many takers at his current price on the machine so I am loitering in the hope to get 10/11 or evens before backing him
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I can't really see Bravemansgame trying to force the issue when there has to be doubts about his stamina and I never really buy the Kempton is an easy 3 miles it simply isn't. Perhaps a fallacy created by its easier to get the trip in the King George than it is in a Gold Cup which goes without saying really as there is a couple of furlongs extra and a ruddy great hill.

I think if you are backing Bravemansgame then you are backing imo only with a hope of Ahoy Senor blundering his chance away. I wouldn't normally get involved with novice chasers until the festival and only really then token bets. So its merely an opinion but I thought Ahoy Senor for one with so little experience to win the races that he has in the fashion that he has, well he could be very smart. He took quite a grip both at Aintree and Newbury and still finished strongly so he has some engine. Whether or not inexperience will cost him who knows but I wouldn't be banking on that.
 
on a line through Pay The Piper, It would be a brave man at this game to back Ahoy Senor!
 
WPM decribed Appreciate as a good old fashioned chasing type. He's going on 8 years old and the Champion Hurdle is not on his bucket list or you wouldn't get a sniff at 7/1
plus his Supreme win has been badly let down by the 2nd who has lost afew times since.


There are plenty races in Ireland that would suit him more and you can bet that is where he will stay and pick up some easy prize money if he runs at all.
The older he gets the less chance of him getting to the top of the chasing tree and the best bet is to let him keep winning as many easy races as he can.
 
Maxbet said:
on a line through Pay The Piper, It would be a brave man at this game to back Ahoy Senor!
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Tbh i don't think you'd have to be brave to back in what effectively is probably a 3 horse race. Whilst I understand your way of thinking to me that looks like finding evidence that backs up your own opinion. If you looked at the straightest line of form Ahoy Senor accounted for Bravemansgame over 3 miles over hurdles quite easily and by quite a way and didn't look any sort fluke about it. BMG fans will say maybe its a poor performance after Cheltenham is there anything real to back that up ? He won 3 races over the winter barely breaking a sweat and then came up short at Cheltenham where he faded quite badly in the closing stages but its hardly a gruelling season or a gruelling race and at Aintree he was going plenty well enough and found nothing at the business end. Fans of Ahoy senor may well point to the fact that he's won that on only his second start over hurdles and no reason why there is not plenty more to come and at the very least thus far he hasn't come up short at the highest level as BMG clearly did.

As for the pay the piper line of form firstly you are taking it for granted that Ahoy Senor wouldn't have won if he'd stood up. There was nothing in it when he slipped up and just because he was off the bridle it wouldn't be a surprise that a horse who certainly looks like he's better at 3 mile wouldn't have stayed on strongly over the inadequate 2m4f trip. Pay the piper didn't win in the end he was just outstayed over the 2m4f he took on BMG over even further before dropping back to 2m to pick up a race. Also BMG had the benefit of a previous run where as when Ahoy Senor was taking him on it was his first race of the season.
The way i see it is i wouldn't really be taking a line of form like that and putting any great faith in it.

Bravemansgame did look brilliant at Haydock and did everything right and the fact he's accounted for Fusil Raffles and Itchy feet this season sets a certain standard and a high one for a novice. What Ahoy Senor did at Newbury was make probably 3 fairly bad jumping errors but still win a grd2 by a distance on what effectively was his 1st completed start over fences and only his 5th start under rules. There is a lot he can improve on and what he's already done entitles him to be favourite he's also a guaranteed stayer. Tbh its far too much discussion for a horse I'll have a token bet on at best but I'll be more interested to see just how good he is as until he comes up short I'll hold out hope that he might be something a bit special.
 
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Maxbet said:
on a line through Pay The Piper, It would be a brave man at this game to back Ahoy Senor!
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Surely the line directly with BMG is more relevant? Besides, the 2m4f trip at Carlisle was always on the sharp side for Ahoy Senor.

I am taking the coward’s option and won’t have a bet. Two really promising horses taking each other on,
and I am struggling to split them (BMG has definitely improved for fences).
 
Plenty evens around for Bravemansgame so I have gone in hard...

5***** bet for me.

I honestly think he'll take this easily doing handstands:cool:
 
Can't see why Ahoy Senor doesn't lead in this and if he gets into a rhythm out front this track seems to suit for that. They may not see which way he goes...
 
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