Novice Hurdlers 2012-13

the supreme is the last race champagne fever should run in good horse but not fast enough.
makes you wonder if they are not that confident about un atout to consider cf as a contender.

i would think the stable considers Pont alexander and Ballycassy as their two main hopes for success in the novice races.

they may heve been wiser to have stuck with the original plan for Cf and sent him straight over fences
 
treetangle said:
You wonder if people say keep novices away from Championsip races purely because they have already backed them for the novice race.

Everyone could see the horse wasn't phased by the most competitive handicap of the season. The fact is he reduced it to a procession. As people have said the other progressive types filled the places. I certainly wouldn't give up hope of Cotton Mill improving considerably on better ground and on that basis he still has a decent each-way shout in the Champion. As for My Tent Or Yours he has every right to line up in an open renewal and with the owner already having the Supreme favourite that would seem the logical route to take.

Hopefully, for the sake of the markets a decision will be taken sooner rather than later. Anyone know the cut off for supplementary entries?
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Not an argument for either race but I would be more concerned about the suitability of the track than the quality of opposition. Quicker ground is also a slight worry although the ground on the first day is unlikely to be better than good to soft. Perhaps worth noting that although it has been assumed he wants better ground his bumper defeats came on good and good to soft ground.
 
treetangle said:
Perhaps worth noting that although it has been assumed he wants better ground his bumper defeats came on good and good to soft ground.
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That defeat at Aintree though was in a super hot race and it's the level of performance that's important not the position he came in. A lot of punters seem to be over thinking ways of getting this animal beat in the Supreme. Won't happen.
 
Euronymous said:
That defeat at Aintree though was in a super hot race and it's the level of performance that's important not the position he came in. A lot of punters seem to be over thinking ways of getting this animal beat in the Supreme. Won't happen.
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I am not talking him down as I think he should go for the Champion. It was a decent race at Aintree but if they staged the race again he would be very short to be beat the same field.
 
Aragorn said:
Henderson said she's tiny and won't be fencing this year.

I have to disagree with Tanlic though (Shock) about her destruction of Fago.... He fell in a heap after going too quick and she stayed on past him. I'd fancy him to beat her over those fences more often than not. Personally I think Nicholls bought the right one.
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Utopie Des Bordes heads for the Bartlett. Her chances must be considered a bit slender after today's outing at Sandown, I would have thought.
 
She's a stayer, for sure. She will probably be relatively unconsidered in the Albert Bartlett and I won't be backing her but it wouldn't surprise me to see her run a big race and maybe grab a place. She is a grade 1 winner after all.
 
She owes me nothing that's for sure so if she doesn't win at Cheltenham que sera. I had a fair ide he'd keep her in novice company so you pays your money and takes your chances as they say. Amazed you can still get 25/1 about her as you say Aragorn she is very much a stayer.

When consider how tough a course Cheltenham can be she will still be going when 95% of them will have cried enough.

Given testing conditions that will increase her chances further but no doubt there will be a Black Jack Ketchum in there somewhere that will do her for toe. If she gets her conditions she could be worth another a bet in the place market on the day.

Fascinating race at Ascot today where River Maigue and Far West clash.

BG is going to have his work out settling RM who pulled like a train last time. He's obviously a very good horse with a big engine but he's also very flashy and his body and brain don't seem to be fully connected just yet. If Ruby boxes clever and sets a stop star pace I reckon he can unsettle RM and make BG's job even harder.

The way Far West performed last time stopping and starting shouldn't be a problem as he's a bit of a monkey.

I hate to oppose River Maigue as he is a class act but until he learns to settle he's a danger to himself and I really like Far West who impressed me no end last time.

Having backed Far West in the Triumph I hope he can win this today but my main worry is PN may have left plenty to work on whereas RM put's so much into his homework he'll be as fit as a flea.......I think watch and learn could be the best policy.
 
Just about to set off for Haydock and I'm looking forward to the Prestige. For fun, I had a look at the pedigrees of those yet to be tried over fences to see if chasing will be their calling. The numbers before the relatives denote how close the relation (3rd dam, 1st dam of...)

Two Rockers 6bg Milan A King
3/1 Marcus Du Berlais 3rd 2005 Irish Grand National
3/1 Michel Le Bon 2nd 2012 Badger Ales Trophy
Creepy 5bg Westerner M Keighley
2/1 Sir Oj 1st 2006 Gowran Park Champion Chase
2/2 Cannington Brook 1st 2012 Tommy Whittle Chase
3/3 Over The Furze 2nd 2002 Newlands Chase
4/0 Last Link 1st 1963 Irish Grand National
4/1 Last Suspect 1st 1985 Grand National
5/1 Fortria 1st 1961 Irish Grand National
Shotgun Paddy 6bg Brian Boru E Lavelle
3/1 Patricksnineteenth 1st 2004 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase
5/1 Fabulous 3rd 1980 Charlie Hall Chase
 
I thought Far West is the most impressive novice I've seen this season including MTOY......Can't see him being beaten in the Triumph and being PN's Champion Hurdle horse next year...proper racehorse
 
Tanlic said:
I thought Far West is the most impressive novice I've seen this season including MTOY......Can't see him being beaten in the Triumph and being PN's Champion Hurdle horse next year...proper racehorse
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Wouldn't be in my top ten. Today's race was hardly a true test - basically he just settled that bit better, quickened up that bit better and jumped that bit quicker than a rival who may well have been overrated. I heard the interview with Skelton and got the distinct impression they were concerned how he would pick up on the soft ground. Likely quicker conditions at Cheltenham would be an even bigger concern. Our Conor's dismissal of Diakali and co looks the most solid piece of juvenile form and I don't think it is any surprise that he has retained favouritism.
 
Who said anything about today race being any sort of test for Far West? I'm looking way beyond that at the horse himself the way he travels and carries himself his attitude and overall I see a horse who's a bit special.

You guys simply don't see what I see because you don't have the gift. That's reserved for people like me and Mystic Meg

On a serious note I think he's a better horse than Zarkandar was at this stage of his career and he'll win the Triumph and go on to be a real player in next years Champion Hurdle.

As far as Harry Skelton goes he was being cautious as he had no idea how good River Maigue was. "River Maigue is one I hold in high regard" is what BG said in his blog and only a fool would have said he was certain to beat him. I myself wrote on here it was a race better watched.

As far as the race goes it looked like it was just a matter of time until BG asked the question going to the second last but the second Ruby asked Far West to quicken it was instant putting 3 lengths between him and River Maigie in a matter of strides and he is no mug.

If Far West isn't in your top 10 Tree Tangle I'd love to see your list of the 10 better novice Hurdlers in the British Isle's
 
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Tanlic said:
As far as Harry Skelton goes he was being cautious as he had no idea how good River Maigue was. "River Maigue is one I hold in high regard" is what BG said in his blog and only a fool would have said he was certain to beat him. I myself wrote on here it was a race better watched.
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Perhaps Skelton should have a closer look at what River Maigue has actually achieved. He was tonked by Royal Guardsman and then beat Master Malt. Both have since been pretty woeful. The horse he beat at Kempton is struggling to translate bumper form and the one standout run came in a falsely run race. Not sure what price he is now but he never really had a prayer in the Supreme.

Far West doesn't look anything like a potential Champion Hurdle winner to me. Personally, wouldn't be surprised if he is jumping a fence sooner rather than later but we shall see. Don't think we need to be Mystic Meg to realise humble pie isn't your favourite delicacy.
 
Tanlic said:
If Far West isn't in your top 10 Tree Tangle I'd love to see your list of the 10 better novice Hurdlers in the British Isle's
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Pont Alexandre
Rule the World
Jezki
My Tent Or Yours
Un Atout
Dodging Bullets
At fishers Cross
The New One
Defy Logic
Gevrey Chambertin
Melodic Rendevouz
Taquin De Sueil
 
treetangle said:
Perhaps Skelton should have a closer look at what River Maigue has actually achieved. He was tonked by Royal Guardsman and then beat Master Malt. Both have since been pretty woeful. The horse he beat at Kempton is struggling to translate bumper form and the one standout run came in a falsely run race. Not sure what price he is now but he never really had a prayer in the Supreme.

Far West doesn't look anything like a potential Champion Hurdle winner to me. Personally, wouldn't be surprised if he is jumping a fence sooner rather than later but we shall see. Don't think we need to be Mystic Meg to realise humble pie isn't your favourite delicacy.
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What he's achieved? The horse is just out of his nappies. Kauto Star lost 3 of his first 5 races in the UK Sprinter Sacre beat a horse by a nose in his first run that wouldn't get within a distance of him now and in his next but one he lost to Frarscatti Park. If trainers looked at bare form of novices instead of looking at their potential they'd be sending them off to the knckers yard by the dozen.

As far as BG is concerned he said "I’m convinced this is a horse with a bright future ahead - I like him a lot" I would be inclined to agree with him before you especially as you can't even be bothered to look at what price the horse is for the Supreme.

It would seem someone was impressed by Far West who 5/1 joint fav from as big as 10/1 with several of the major bookies.

If he does win the Triumph he'll no doubt follow in the footsteps of both Celestial Halo and Zarkandar and will head for the Champion Hurdle if not I suppose he could go chasing but I doubt if PN has any thoughts in that direction at the moment.

Not when he's saying things like this "Zarkandar works every day with Far West and, if you saw them, you'd think that Far West was a nailed-on certainty for the Triumph"

I saw something really special in this horse when he won that Micky Mouse race at Cheltenham and until he's beaten I'll stick to my guns and be looking to back him for the big one in 2014 if he wins the Triumph as I expect.
 
By Poliglote. I'll have good money he won't be quick enough on better ground when it comes, which it inevitably will.

There are definitely going to be some shocks this year; the seemingly omnipresent soft/heavy ground will have created some false form.
 
Tanlic said:
What he's achieved? The horse is just out of his nappies. Kauto Star lost 3 of his first 5 races in the UK Sprinter Sacre beat a horse by a nose in his first run that wouldn't get within a distance of him now and in his next but one he lost to Frarscatti Park. If trainers looked at bare form of novices instead of looking at their potential they'd be sending them off to the knckers yard by the dozen.

As far as BG is concerned he said "I’m convinced this is a horse with a bright future ahead - I like him a lot" I would be inclined to agree with him before you especially as you can't even be bothered to look at what price the horse is for the Supreme.

It would seem someone was impressed by Far West who 5/1 joint fav from as big as 10/1 with several of the major bookies.

If he does win the Triumph he'll no doubt follow in the footsteps of both Celestial Halo and Zarkandar and will head for the Champion Hurdle if not I suppose he could go chasing but I doubt if PN has any thoughts in that direction at the moment.

Not when he's saying things like this "Zarkandar works every day with Far West and, if you saw them, you'd think that Far West was a nailed-on certainty for the Triumph"

I saw something really special in this horse when he won that Micky Mouse race at Cheltenham and until he's beaten I'll stick to my guns and be looking to back him for the big one in 2014 if he wins the Triumph as I expect.
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This is pretty typical of plenty of your posts dropping quotes as if it adds some extra weight to your often flimsy arguments. If you want to swallow these quotes at face value that's up to you.

Why should I want to know the price of a horse that in my opinion has no chance?

If you fancy Far West so much why are you waiting to see if wins the Triumph first? Can't imagine the bookmakers fighting shy of offering a price.
 
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