Novice Hurdlers 2012-13

Jezki is rated 153 and My Tent Or Yours was rated 149 going into today's race.

Captain Cee Bee and Binocular, when going for the Supreme in the same colours, were rated 142 and 143 respectively, and they weren't bad.
 
The fact JP ran both Captain Cee Bee and Binocular in the Supreme doesn't mean he'll do the same this time.

Nicky Henderson was dead set against Binocular running in the race and wanted to run him in the Triumph Hurdle but was not allowed to. The cash was already down on Franchoek who was a huge gamble antepost and on the day 5/4 £55000-£40000 £2750-£2000 £5000-£400 £3750-£3000 £2500-£2000 £2000-£1600 £1000-£800 £29150-£26500 £5500-£500 £2200-£2000(x4) £1100-£1000(x2) £10000-£10000(x10) £5000-£5000 £3000-£3000 £2000-£2000 £1000-£1000(x2).

In the Supreme preview in March Binocular wasn't even mentioned http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbJhBdDxkx4 as Nicky wanted to run him in the Triumph.

When it comes to JP it's not just down to Nicky Henderson where horses run. AP and Frank Berry have a huge influence on what runs where.

AP is left with Binocular as his only mount in the Champion Hurdle. He can as things stand ride Jezki or My Tent Or Yours in the Supreme or he can give himself the opportunity to win both races by advising JP to run the latter in the Champion Hurdle.....I know what I would do.
 
You wonder if people say keep novices away from Championsip races purely because they have already backed them for the novice race.

Everyone could see the horse wasn't phased by the most competitive handicap of the season. The fact is he reduced it to a procession. As people have said the other progressive types filled the places. I certainly wouldn't give up hope of Cotton Mill improving considerably on better ground and on that basis he still has a decent each-way shout in the Champion. As for My Tent Or Yours he has every right to line up in an open renewal and with the owner already having the Supreme favourite that would seem the logical route to take.

Hopefully, for the sake of the markets a decision will be taken sooner rather than later. Anyone know the cut off for supplementary entries?
 
I'm normally dead set against it as for most novices it's a complete waste of time. There's no race quite like the Champion Hurdle and one mistake at a crucial stage and you can almost guarantee you're winning nothing

However he is one very serious horse and he just made the performances of Zarkandar and Get Me Out of Here look very ordinary by comparison.

I just can't see JP running both in the Supreme but then he is a very fair man and perhaps he'll wish both trainers all the best and let em scrap it out.

Interesting build up to the race now that's for sure
 
Current ratings of the market leaders (even allowing MYOT and Meloodic Rendezvous running off pre-weekend marks) shows projected field already better than those Zarkandar beat.
 
treetangle said:
You wonder if people say keep novices away from Championsip races purely because they have already backed them for the novice race.

QUOTE]

I haven't backed him for anything myself, I just believe in giving horses time, in the same way as I am dead against 4yo horses going chasing. I know giving them time sometimes backfires and something goes wrong but still it is the way I feel about it.
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From today's Sporting Life
Following his front-running victory in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Saturday, the trainer reported it would be most likely the grey would drop back to two miles for the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Last year's Champion Bumper hero, who was a big disappointment on his previous start at Naas, does still have entries in the Neptune Investment Management and Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdles.
"He doesn't have to lead but he has loads of stamina," Mullins told At The Races.


"At the moment we have said the Supreme Novices', but he's so stoutly bred we could go any trip.
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"You could ride him a lot differently in the three-mile race. It's a huge difference in trip, but he gallops, he loves the track and he's all stamina in his pedigree. If he did go a longer trip we wouldn't make as much use of him."

This AntePost game is a real old lark!
 
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Tout Seul said:
From today's Sporting Life
Following his front-running victory in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Saturday, the trainer reported it would be most likely the grey would drop back to two miles for the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Last year's Champion Bumper hero, who was a big disappointment on his previous start at Naas, does still have entries in the Neptune Investment Management and Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdles.
"He doesn't have to lead but he has loads of stamina," Mullins told At The Races.


"At the moment we have said the Supreme Novices', but he's so stoutly bred we could go any trip.
  • Profiles

"You could ride him a lot differently in the three-mile race. It's a huge difference in trip, but he gallops, he loves the track and he's all stamina in his pedigree. If he did go a longer trip we wouldn't make as much use of him."

This AntePost game is a real old lark!
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Latest news - Willie is going to run him in the 4 miler - as he stays all day :ninja:
 
Typical- the 4 miler, the bumper and the mares race are the only races I omitted from my cunning staking plan.
 
Just thought it was worth mentioning a horse on here called MANY CLOUDS, trained by Oliver Sherwood and owned by Trevor Hemmings. I've been looking at some form lines and he appears one to watch, (has form with Gevrey Chambertin). Much more interestingly, he's been backed across the boards with most firms at tasty prices for both the Neptune and Albett Bartlett today (see Oddschecker). He has no immediate entries bar those two races next month, so the money springing up for him today is intriguing to say the least, and worth a mention. Any thoughts on what race he's likely to go for are welcome. I myself fancy him more for the Neptune.
 
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If anything positive can be taken out of this it must be how confident they are of landing the punt with Ballycasey. You have a three time Grade 1 winner as opposed to a horse who has beaten a maiden winner a couple of lengths. Fair enough that he came off the subs bench when Champagne Fever was under a cloud but surely if the owner doesn't want two runners in a race that is precisely where he should return now.
 
Marble said:
Just thought it was worth mentioning a horse on here called MANY CLOUDS, trained by Oliver Sherwood and owned by Trevor Hemmings. I've been looking at some form lines and he appears one to watch, (has form with Gevrey Chambertin). Much more interestingly, he's been backed across the boards with most firms at tasty prices for both the Neptune and Albett Bartlett today (see Oddschecker). He has no immediate entries bar those two races next month, so the money springing up for him today is intriguing to say the least, and worth a mention. Any thoughts on what race he's likely to go for are welcome. I myself fancy him more for the Neptune.
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He beat a well touted Nicholls horse today - pair clear. Previously, well beaten by Up And Go and other than the weight concession didn't look too many excuses. Bookmakers likely to shorten anything at this stage. You would have thought he needs to improve to play a leading role in either race. His half brother (The Tullow Tank) should win a maiden hurdle in the near future.
 
treetangle said:
He beat a well touted Nicholls horse today - pair clear. Previously, well beaten by Up And Go and other than the weight concession didn't look too many excuses. Bookmakers likely to shorten anything at this stage. You would have thought he needs to improve to play a leading role in either race. His half brother (The Tullow Tank) should win a maiden hurdle in the near future.
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Ah right, cheers for that Treeangle.

I guess 33/1 or whatever is about right but he is progressing nicely isn't he, The Albett looks a hot race but if Many Clouds can pick up a better hurdle on the way to Cheltenham he'd deserve his place. You seem to know more about the horse than me though so thanks again for that info.
 
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I know nothing about times but I see the race Many Clouds won today was slower than standard by 51 seconds, and the listed hurdle Melodic Rendezvous won was slower than standard by 44 seconds. Thats not a huge difference is it? Even accounting for the fact Melodic won easily. Would any time gurus confirm (or deny!) the first novice hurdle was a fast race given the bad ground? Or does the fact Melodic won so easy rendor my analysis meaningless?
 
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It's 7 seconds Martin. To give you an idea it takes about 14 seconds to get up the Cheltenham hill from the last.

It would indicate considering MC was all out and MR won in a canter that MR would be half way home in his horse box by the time MC got into the winners enclosure.

Or if you like MR would pick MC up and carry him
 
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Ardross said:
Latest news - Willie is going to run him in the 4 miler - as he stays all day :ninja:
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He'd have more chance in that than he would the Supreme....not a hope in hell he'll go that route he's nowhere near good enough and will be switched to an easier race 100%........drop back to 2 miles my a$$
 
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