Novice Hurdlers 2014/15

Grasshopper said:
I think Peace and Co is just begging to get chinned in the Triumph. I'm not convinced he'll get up the hill.
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Wouldn't be backing him myself at current price but happy enough to have backed him at 8s. Tendency to pull is a bit of a worry and many have pointed out he won't get away with that in a Triumph. But the horse does at least have a win at Cheltenham to his name and hopefully the triumph will be run at a more suitable pace


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Here is a list of recent winners of the Deloitte Hurdle, the 2015 edition of which will be run on Sunday. Is there a better novice race anywhere for identifying future Grade One winners?

2014 Vautour 5 11-9 R Walsh 7/4 (W P Mullins)
2013 Champagne Fever 6 11-10 P Townend 2/1Fav (W P Mullins)
2012 Benefficient 6 11-10 B J Cooper 50/1 (A J Martin)
2011 Oscars Well 6 11-10 R M Power 7/1 (Mrs John Harrington)
2010 Dunguib 7 11-10 B T O'Connell 3/10Fav (Philip Fenton)
2009 Pandorama 6 11-10 P Carberry 6/4 (Noel Meade)
2008 Forpadydeplasterer 6 11-10 D N Russell 11/4 (Thomas Cooper)
2007 Aran Concerto 6 11-10 P Carberry 4/6Fav (Noel Meade)
2006 Mr Nosie 5 11-7 P Carberry 11/10Fav (Noel Meade)
2005 Royal Paradise 5 11-7 M A Fitzgerald 4/5Fav (Thomas Foley)
2004 Brave Inca 6 11-10 B M Cash 13/2 (C A Murphy)
2003 Solerina 6 11-5 P Carberry 11/10Fav (James Bowe)
2002 Like-A-Butterfly 8 11-6 C F Swan 1/1Fav (C Roche)
2001 Colonel Braxton 6 11-6 K A Kelly 6/4Fav (D T Hughes)
2000 Youlneverwalkalone 6 11-13 C O'Dwyer 8/13Fav (C Roche)
1999 Alexander Banquet 6 11-13 R Walsh 1/2Fav (W P Mullins)
 
Grey said:
Here is a list of recent winners of the Deloitte Hurdle, the 2015 edition of which will be run on Sunday. Is there a better novice race anywhere for identifying future Grade One winners?

2014 Vautour 5 11-9 R Walsh 7/4 (W P Mullins)
2013 Champagne Fever 6 11-10 P Townend 2/1Fav (W P Mullins)
2012 Benefficient 6 11-10 B J Cooper 50/1 (A J Martin)
2011 Oscars Well 6 11-10 R M Power 7/1 (Mrs John Harrington)
2010 Dunguib 7 11-10 B T O'Connell 3/10Fav (Philip Fenton)
2009 Pandorama 6 11-10 P Carberry 6/4 (Noel Meade)
2008 Forpadydeplasterer 6 11-10 D N Russell 11/4 (Thomas Cooper)
2007 Aran Concerto 6 11-10 P Carberry 4/6Fav (Noel Meade)
2006 Mr Nosie 5 11-7 P Carberry 11/10Fav (Noel Meade)
2005 Royal Paradise 5 11-7 M A Fitzgerald 4/5Fav (Thomas Foley)
2004 Brave Inca 6 11-10 B M Cash 13/2 (C A Murphy)
2003 Solerina 6 11-5 P Carberry 11/10Fav (James Bowe)
2002 Like-A-Butterfly 8 11-6 C F Swan 1/1Fav (C Roche)
2001 Colonel Braxton 6 11-6 K A Kelly 6/4Fav (D T Hughes)
2000 Youlneverwalkalone 6 11-13 C O'Dwyer 8/13Fav (C Roche)
1999 Alexander Banquet 6 11-13 R Walsh 1/2Fav (W P Mullins)
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So the entries on Sunday are here

http://info.hri-racing.ie/Content/RAS/entries/Microsoft_Word__2015_ONOR027.PDF
 
Some of the The Challow Hurdle winners have done ok and it's produced a couple of horses who still might go to the top.....as you know Irish Grade 1's don't count :lol:

Large Action
Denman
Wichita Lineman
Diamond Harry
Reve de Sivola
Fingal Bay
Taquin du Seuil
 
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edgt said:
Nick Mordin with you on that Grassy.
He says no way is he the 6/4 shot, has not improved his rating since his first run and NM prefers a better stayer for Triumph H. ( for what it's worth )
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Not surewhere you stand as you don't really say which words are your and which are NM's but there's a few on here seem to be dead against Peace and Co but I can't for the life of me understand why.

The fact he has not improved his rating since his first run is meaningless.

Had you put 2 or 3 horses that could finish in front of Karezak last time then Barry wouldn't have spent 90% of the race waiting for the rest to get a move on.

He gave the horse the ride the opposition demanded and as easy a race as he possibly could on the way round with a few slap on the backside to waken him out of a deep sleep after the last......He wasn't out to increase his rating by slamming them 20 lengths and doing the horse more harm than good but that's not to say he couldn't

If Karezak turns up in the Triumph he wont get within 20 lengths of him if some decent animals turn up IMO

Plenty negativity but just empty words stating nothing about why you/they think he'll get beat.........No horse to beat him mentioned, grassy on what?, who knows saying he wont get up the hill when he just flew up it like it didn't exist, Fonz wants to lay him but why instead of UDS for reason best known to himself and Nick Moron just loves being controversial because it keeps him in the limelight.

Peace and co will not be beat at Cheltenham IMO he's a Champion Hurdler in waiting against inferiors who wont even get him flustered.....and you can take that to the bank

Not get up the hill? That's cracker that is :lol:

The only negative I can see is he is still a bit green but not as green as would see him beaten,
 
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I saw something similar before with Grandouet at Cheltenham, Tanlic. He was hacking all over them (in the Bula, I think), but didn't put any more daylight between himself and those in behind after jumping the last. In short, he didn't win with anything like as much authority as it seemed he would, before he got to the last hurdle, and Peace and Co's last outing at Cheltenham was very similar.

Peace and Co might well win the Triumph, but I think he is vulnerable to something that stays better. Every horse has a price at which you want to back, and one at which you want to lay. Peace and Co is a 7/4 shot in a competitive race where almost the entire field is potentially open to further progress - on that basis, I'm perfectly happy to oppose him.
 
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Tanlic
Those are Mordin's words; to him the horse does not at this stage rate as highly as Our Conor or Detroit City.
As such 7/4 6/4 is no value at this stage.
I just miss Bachelors Hall; his analysis is pure magic and great reading still.
Peace And Co keeps winning so who am I to bitch him?
 
Winner might just be something out of the ordinary. Commentator said NJH's wasn't finding but I thought that he improved plenty from his previous efforts, like they expected he would, but he was just totally outclassed.
 
Grasshopper said:
I saw something similar before with Grandouet at Cheltenham, Tanlic. He was hacking all over them (in the Bula, I think), but didn't put any more daylight between himself and those in behind after jumping the last. In short, he didn't win with anything like as much authority as it seemed he would, before he got to the last hurdle, and Peace and Co's last outing at Cheltenham was very similar.

Peace and Co might well win the Triumph, but I think he is vulnerable to something that stays better. Every horse has a price at which you want to back, and one at which you want to lay. Peace and Co is a 7/4 shot in a competitive race where almost the entire field is potentially open to further progress - on that basis, I'm perfectly happy to oppose him.
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Absolutely nothing like Grandouet. Grandouet was a strong traveller with an extremely high cruising speed but he wouldn't have the kick this horse has. His best ever performance came against Overturn due to the fact he maintained that cruising speed throughout all but the last 100 yds of the race

BG is mustard keen on him and couldn't believe the way he quickened at Donnie and it takes a lot for him to say something like that (Being the only jockey on the planet to have ridden an aeroplane :o)

That was an awful race at Cheltenham in the sense they went no pace, the worst thing that could have happened when they were experimenting in holding the horse up. Barry still rode him with total confidence and despite using up lots of energy pulling his arms out he still put the race to bed in a matter of strides.

This horse is in a different league to Grandouet and as highly thought of as Spirit Son was with a bit more maturity about him for his age (Green but not so cabbage looking you could say). If there's a danger in the Triumph Hurdle I am damned if I can see it and tomy eyes he's as far ahead of anything in the race as UDS is in his.

I read the word competitive and Triumph Hurdle in the same sentence I just shake my head and wonder what race are these guys looking at?....I thought Faugheen was running in the Champion Hurdle :blink:
 
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Tanlic said:
Winner might just be something out of the ordinary. Commentator said NJH's wasn't finding but I thought that he improved plenty from his previous efforts, like they expected he would, but he was just totally outclassed.
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Yep, you might me right Fist. He was well backed and won easily so perhaps West Wizard did run into one, but he's still one to avoid as will probably be short again next time
 
Impressive stuff from Qewy there at Newbury
Hacking up from a few decent sorts off a strong pace and looked to have been a decent time.
 
fonz said:
Impressive stuff from Qewy there at Newbury
Hacking up from a few decent sorts off a strong pace and looked to have been a decent time.
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20/1 would seem more than fair for the supreme if that's his target. Some speculation on RUK that he might be saved for Aintree though as he's only run on flat tracks so far. Quite a turn of foot he showed on softish ground there.


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Seven Barrows thought there's was a bit of a good thing and Ferguson horse simply destroyed him. can't keep thinking everything Ferguson trains will stop going up the Cheltenham Hill
I'd be happy to have a few quid on him at 20's if he runs in the Supreme, he certainly wasn't stopping yesterday and looks like a horse to keep on the right side of.
 
Segal doesn't think it is certain Douvan will be in the supreme & wouldn't be surprised at all if NC runs in the supreme & Douvan in the Neptune. Pointed to the fact Champagne fever & Vautour ran in the Deloitte before going on to win the supreme.
 
Wylie has Shaneshill (Neptune) and Black Hercules (Potato race) so it would not be a surprise. I would be surprised if Douvan didn't run as well though.

Willie and Ruby have to recognise that with so many of the best horses in their care, they have to meet every so often!!!

I was very impressed with Nichols Canyon, he hurdles really well and given he was rated 111 on the flat, he is a danger to them all.
 
i was impressed with Nichols Canyon as well but the stable has been saying for some time that Douvan is their best novice hurdler and therefore Ruby's likely choice. From a personal gambling point of view I'd be delighted if Shaneshill was the Ruby choice in the Neptune but I'd settle for the AB with Patrick on Black Hercules.
 
They clearly thought Alvisio Ville was better than NC as well... He is all over a chaser though to be fair. He is enormous!
 
I really haven't been that impressed by the novice hurdlers in Ireland this time round. I reckon we've seen much better in previous years and they might just struggle this year.

Douvan however was very impressive especially in his latest race but if there's a negative about him it would be he may be more at home racing round Newbury in the Hennessy in the future than running round the undulation of Cheltenham on fastish ground. He looks massive on video but that might well be an illusion but if he happened to come under pressure at Cheltenham I'd worry about him handling the course.

They seem to think Lami Serge will improve further when he gets goodish ground but that may just be wishful thinking personally I think he's way too slow in doing things to be winning a Supreme.

No doubt Douvan deserves to be fav he looks every bit like another Willie Mullins scary monster but I do like this horse of John Ferguson's, Qewy.

Barry Geraghty must have thought he was home and hosed on Saturday.

There were a few going well round about him but he looked to have them all covered until AP brought Qewy through.

You can only imagine what went through Barry Geraghty mind when this thing took of like someone had stuck a red hot pokers up it's jacksie and left him for dead.

A fair horse on the flat he's come to hand slowly over hurdles still looks a bit green/wayward and there could be a lot more improvement to come.

Why he is still 20/1 baffles me and I have no idea if he'll run so I will wait but I'll definitely back him ew on the day if he's anything like his current price

The fact he went violently left at the weekend is a slight worry as he has done so before but Cheltenham is left handed anyway.
 
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Whatever Willie has said, Nicholls Canyon's performance on Sunday is better than any piece of form Douvan has to offer so far. Douvan is a very opposable favourite. If Nicholls Canyon runs in the Supreme his form on Sunday should be good enough to win it in any normal year, and it'll take something special to beat him.
 
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