Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

Personally I'd be disappointed if Altior wins the Supreme. For me this race is about the future and it's my favourite race of the meeting in the hope that we see a truly exceptional horse who looks destined for great things. The fact that historically they haven't gone on to achieve that is largely by-the-by (very immediate history excluded) as we still live in expectation until that time proves otherwise.

and can I see Altior challenging for the Champion Hurdle next year ?. No I can't, as I feel as though I know how good he is and a length or so beating to the likes of Ch'Tibello and Maputo is it.

Min would excite were he to live up to the hype as would Buveur D'air and the only other horses I feel capable of posting something with a real wow factor are Yorkhill (Neptune bound ?), Moon Racer (will he be 100% fit in time ?) and to a lesser extent Tombstone.
 
Kauto Abu said:
How far ahead are Altior & Buveur D'air on ratings than Vaniteux & Josses Hill going into Vautours Supreme win?

I know L'ami Serge was rated higher against Douvan but a lot went against him on the day, even from the off.
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Vaniteux 154
Josses Hill 148
L'Ami Serge 153

going into the supreme.

Altior and Buveur D'Air both currently 154.
 
wilsonl said:
Min would excite were he to live up to the hype
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thats exactly the point i'm making about official ratings though..there is no hype ..he has already lived up to expectations in my little world..on that last run..its a rock solid big figure race..but because the OR is too low..he is deemed as being hyped..which i think is incorrect

hype is words above performance..he has shown what he can do already..he is no mre hyped than altior imo

after all this..something will come and do em both:lol:
 
I should have been clearer EC.

Hype, Potential, whatever words we use - if he doesn't win a championship event - at least at some point - following the expectation then ultimately he'll have done nothing because nobody will look back in ten years time and say "Remember that Min ?, what great times he used to record".

As important as they are, if they're not produced on the day it matters then they count for jack other than allowing time & form students like yourself to liberate cash off other races with related lines.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Figures derived before mid-November can be misleading, I reckon. Oftentimes, they are based on 'winter' horses coming out and beating horses who have run-up a sequence in the summer - which appears to be the case with Altior.

I would treat any high-figure awarded in October/early-November with a degree of caution, for this reason.
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I largely agree. The earlier the figure is put up the less reliable it can be vis-a-vis winter racing but I'm happy to take on board any rating from 01 November or the last week in Ocotber. This is when the big guns are tested with a view to getting them close to 100% before freshening them up ahead of Cheltenham.

However, I don't think Maputo's OR147 looked over-generous when Altior beat him. What was unsatisfactory was the way the race was run. It left question marks.

I do think, though, that the Kempton form next time is right out of the top drawer. Going back to the ORs of the beaten ones at the time and what they've done since only points in one direction. Tanlic opined elsewhere that Open Eagle stopped to noting that day. If that's the case then the others must have been in reverse because he put seven lengths between himself and the third from two out, with the third also putting distance between himself and the fourth (who was weakening).

Open Eagle, representing Mullins, and Marracudja, for Nicholls, both came into the race with winning November form. For me, Open Eagle was there to run to his best (and was ridden accordingly) to test the English form against what they had at home. I reckon they got a bit of a shock when Altior left Open Eagle for dead.

Here it is: http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20151226/2563579/15250045
 
DO

..Ball D'Arc is now officially rated 143...which is just below what i've had for him for 3 races...the difference is..they just gave him that figure..on my calcs he has been at that level for last 3 runs. Nice to have it confirmed anyway..and its still a bit lenient imo

are you sure you have him at 136?..or is that before last win?
 
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wilsonl said:
Personally I'd be disappointed if Altior wins the Supreme.
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It will be the opposite for me!

Like EC1, when I go high with one when no-one else does and events prove me correct, I get almost as much of a buzz from that as from winning money. As I said elsewhere, the one regret I have is wimping out with only 1 pt win at 8/1 but it was early January (once I'd work out the figures for the race) and Min was all the talk.

If Altior runs to 165 and Min beats him I won't complain. Altior will have done what I backed him to do in terms of running to his rating. I'll just have to doff my virtual hat to Min.

However, I won't accept that Min already has that kind of figure on the board until the likes of Ball D'Arc comes out and runs 10lbs better than I can rate him :) No offence, EC1 :p
 
The line with Open Eagle is a bit questionable imo, DO - insofar as the Supreme Novices is concerned anyway. He (Open Eagle) has proven to be more of a stayer, and it's no real surprise that a genuine 2-miler would make him look a bit flat-footed. And Marracudja's previous form has also been let-down left, right and centre.

I would personally have Altior a lot closer to his 'Maputo' mark of 147, than your given 164. That kind of mark would win practically every running of the Supreme Novices in the last 20 years (as your own research attests to), and wouldn't be a kick in the rear-end off winning a couple of Champion Hurdles either. I would have to have severe doubts as to its accuracy, given the quality/nature of the opponents he faced, and the time of year in which he generated it. Novices simply don't run to those kinds of marks, that early in the season, imo.

Each to their own though. :cool:
 
EC1 said:
..Ball D'Arc is now officially rated 143...
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... which still only puts Min on 154 :)

A lot now depends on whether that 143 was arrived at in agreement with the UK handicapper. As I said before, when Ball D'Arc was raised to 135 I allowed for the average 6lbs differential between the ORs either side of the Irish Sea. If the UK handicapper says Ball D'Arc is 149 then we'll have Min on 160, which will be 6lbs ahead of Altior's 154. On the other hand, the new OR might just be a true reflection of the improvement Ball D'Arc has made since the race against Min.

It's getting interesting.
 
Grasshopper said:
The line with Open Eagle is a bit questionable imo, DO - insofar as the Supreme Novices is concerned anyway. He (Open Eagle) has proven to be more of a stayer, and it's no real surprise that a genuine 2-miler would make him look a bit flat-footed. And Marracudja's previous form has also been let-down left, right and centre.

I would personally have Altior a lot closer to his 'Maputo' mark of 147, than your given 164. That kind of mark would win practically every running of the Supreme Novices in the last 20 years (as your own research attests to), and wouldn't be a kick in the rear-end off winning a couple of Champion Hurdles either. I would have to have severe doubts as to its accuracy, given the quality/nature of the opponents he faced, and the time of year in which he generated it. Novices simply don't run to those kinds of marks, that early in the season, imo.

Each to their own though. :cool:
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I do get where you're coming from, GH. But look at what the well-beaten horses that day at Kempton have since done. The only one that has disappointed is Simon Squirrel. For every franking of the form of Buveur D'Air or Min that has been quoted, I reckon there is at least an equally convincing one for Altior.

Current RPRs for the Supreme (adjusted to 12-0), and they only have Altior on 154 too:

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<colgroup><col class="colB" style="width: 30px; margin-top: 100px;"><col class="colC" style="width: 48px;"><col><col class="colB" style="width: 30px; margin-top: 100px;"><col class="colA" style="width: 38px;"><col><col><col class="colB" style="width: 30px; margin-top: 100px;"><col class="colB" style="width: 30px; margin-top: 100px;"><col class="colB" style="width: 30px; margin-top: 100px;"></colgroup><thead id="lc_horseCardHead" class="cardHead" style="position: relative; z-index: 2; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">[TR]
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TRAINER RTF%​
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[TH="class: r, align: right"]RPR[/TH]
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[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]61111[/TD]
[TD="class: h"]Altior80
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[TD="class: c, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD]11-7[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[/TD]
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[TD="class: r, align: right"]154[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]145[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]161[/TD]
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[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]22-141[/TD]
[TD="class: h"]Bleu Et Rouge38
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[/TD]
[TD="class: c, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD]11-7[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]—[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]159[/TD]
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[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2-O11[/TD]
[TD="class: h"]A Toi Phil51[/TD]
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[TD]11-7[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
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[TD="class: r, align: right"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]159[/TD]
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[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]11-111[/TD]
[TD="class: h"]Yorkhill73
distance-d.gif
[/TD]
[TD="class: c, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD]11-7[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]—[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]135[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]159[/TD]
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[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]43-11[/TD]
[TD="class: h"]Min66
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[TD]11-7[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]—[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]130[/TD]
[TD="class: r, align: right"]159[/TD]
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A lot now depends on whether that 143 was arrived at in agreement with the UK handicapper.
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Given that the 143 for Ball d'Arc is for a win achieved only a couple of days ago, I doubt the UK handicapper was consulted before issuing this new mark.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
... which still only puts Min on 154 :)

A lot now depends on whether that 143 was arrived at in agreement with the UK handicapper. As I said before, when Ball D'Arc was raised to 135 I allowed for the average 6lbs differential between the ORs either side of the Irish Sea. If the UK handicapper says Ball D'Arc is 149 then we'll have Min on 160, which will be 6lbs ahead of Altior's 154. On the other hand, the new OR might just be a true reflection of the improvement Ball D'Arc has made since the race against Min.

It's getting interesting.
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i don't get why you rely on the official handicapper so much tbh..the only advantage i have in doing ratings is i am in advance of his final view...i've had him at 145 for 3 runs now..because that is what he showed me he was..its no good waiting for loads of races imo..its too late then.

my calcs show me he hasn't improved..he has just churned out 3 solid 145 ish marks each time..which is why i really rated Min's race..the day after it had been run..not weeks down the line
 
The official handicapper works full-time and has access to all the form both electronically and hard copy. He can assess a race via ten year averages as well as or rather than collateral form.

Since Phil Smith took over, I've found the official ratings to be much more accurate than they were before. Looking at some of the old races this morning, there were placed horses in old Supremes running off marks in the 120s. That would be highly unlikely nowadays.

I've also found that ORs for novice hurdlers and handicappers tend to be a fair bit higher than RPRs although they tend to harmonise towards the end of the season. For example, at Haydock last Saturday, Frodon went into his race off 138 and won, beating the 145-rated Fixe Le Kap at levels. He got an RPR of 132 for that, which was deemed to be an improvement on his previous form. His new OR is 145. That's a whopping 13lbs difference. Call it a stone to round it up. Two full-time people analysing the same data. They can't both be correct.

From experience of analysing these things, though, I tend to find the official handicapper's view to be much more accurate than RPRs. There might be an element of bias in this, though, as my ratings are much closer to the official ones.

I happen to believe the official handicapper pegged back Altior's last run by rating the race on 10 year averages rather than on the collateral form. I'll have a wee trawl through the blogs at the BHA site to see if he mentions the race.
 
OK, he doesn't mention the race but I found this snippet which helps explain how they think:

It’s never easy putting figures on a race where all bar the winner have run below form, but we do have a few methods we can use for a guide. Historical standards suggested a figure around 163 for Top Gamble, but as his rating had settled between 152 and 155 over the last twelve months I wasn’t sure I wanted to credit him with that level of improvement. Instead I went back to his last race, a competitive handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, which I knew was working out well.
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So there you have it. If they think a rating looks too good they won't go with it.

I'm not shackled by such considerations and neither are you, EC1. This might be where we get our edge.
 
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it don't really bother me what he rates novice hurdlers tbh..particularly when he is 3 races late with a figure i've already got ..it took him a while to catch up with Altior...and many others
 
Desert Orchid said:
This might be where we get our edge.
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i get an edge by knowing Ball D'arc was a 145 hoss behind Min..very few folk spotted that..and many other races will be under rated in future as in the past.

waiting for horses to confirm what the figures tells you in future races..loses you that edge though,,by then every one and mother is on em..like altior...ball d'arc etc
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The official handicapper works full-time and has access to all the form both electronically and hard copy. He can assess a race via ten year averages as well as or rather than collateral form.

Since Phil Smith took over, I've found the official ratings to be much more accurate than they were before. Looking at some of the old races this morning, there were placed horses in old Supremes running off marks in the 120s. That would be highly unlikely nowadays.

I've also found that ORs for novice hurdlers and handicappers tend to be a fair bit higher than RPRs although they tend to harmonise towards the end of the season. For example, at Haydock last Saturday, Frodon went into his race off 138 and won, beating the 145-rated Fixe Le Kap at levels. He got an RPR of 132 for that, which was deemed to be an improvement on his previous form. His new OR is 145. That's a whopping 13lbs difference. Call it a stone to round it up. Two full-time people analysing the same data. They can't both be correct.

From experience of analysing these things, though, I tend to find the official handicapper's view to be much more accurate than RPRs. There might be an element of bias in this, though, as my ratings are much closer to the official ones.

I happen to believe the official handicapper pegged back Altior's last run by rating the race on 10 year averages rather than on the collateral form. I'll have a wee trawl through the blogs at the BHA site to see if he mentions the race.
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There is a potential volume issue here though.

The OH has to handicap every race, with limited resources (people) to crunch the numbers. This can lead to a degree of sloppiness, just to get through the workload, whereas we have the luxury of focusing on races-of-interest. I certainly place just as much stock in opinions expressed here, as I do the Official Handicapper's opinion.

RPRs I find to be utter hogwash, and I wouldn't use them to wipe my beady-hoop.

I'll leave you to ponder on that rather alluring image. :lol:
 
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Grasshopper said:
The OH has to handicap every race, with limited resources (people) to crunch the numbers.
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There's a squad of them, though, who operate under guidelines issued by Phil Smith and they conference-call on a daily basis to discuss difficulties. They're no more prone to sloppiness than you or me.
 
Altior fans will be glad to see Gwafa dot in there again at Huntingdon. Sixth in that Kempton race he does the form lines no harm at all. Fergusons horse was clearly fancied too, nice bit of money overnight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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