Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

Loving the way Min goes about his trade. Enthusiastic, jumps neatly, travels strongly - everything you would want in a Supreme horse.

Agree he has the look of a chaser about him too.
 
I can't believe the bookies cut Min from 11/4 to 5/4 in certain cases after beating a few trees there. He would want to have lapped them to have justified that cut.

On the plus it means others will be massive value and Min, getting lit up as he did today passing the stands, I'll be taking him on every time. Especially with the quality of opposition in Altior, Buveur D'air & Yanworth to name a few.

Altiors time in winning his hurdle race on St Stephen's day was exactly 1 second slower than Faugheen's winning time in the Christmas Hurdle on the same card & about 5 seconds faster than normal over C&D. More importantly Altior was a few seconds faster over the last half mile & that with Faugheen quickening to great affect.

That, to me anyway, leaves a big impression & with Cheltenham to suit him more than Kempton 8/1 is massive.


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these were my timings from 1st hurdle

XMAS H2015Faugheen63.9954.1769.6227.35215.13
NovH2015Altior63.4954.5070.3527.32215.66

<colgroup><col width="70"><col width="69"><col width="115"><col width="51"><col width="51"><col width="51"><col width="51"><col width="21"><col width="80"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 70"][/TD]
[TD="width: 69"][/TD]
[TD="width: 115"][/TD]
[TD="width: 51"] H1-H3 [/TD]
[TD="width: 51"] H3-H5 [/TD]
[TD="width: 51"] H5-H7 [/TD]
[TD="width: 51"] H7-FIN [/TD]
[TD="width: 21"][/TD]
[TD="width: 80"] Total [/TD]

</tbody>
 
The conditions of the two races also bizarrely meant Altior carried a pound more than Faugheen which also needs to be taken into consideration.
 
faugheen has run for a long way faster than Altior though from H3 to H7..if Altior had run the same.there...he wouldn't have finished in nearly as fast a time as he did

its a cracking effort from Altior all the same
 
I am blown away by Min's time figure today..and the fact he done it so easy.

The oppo today wasn't poor...Attribution..a 142 RPR hoss...thats a stone below an average Supreme type was left in the weeds..mainly just from the last hurdle. It will be interesting to see what attributiuon does next..improving all the time. Ball D'Arc is no slouch..beat a Mullins hottie last time

I think the 2nd + 3rd will end up rating higher than current on next run if the large figure Min ran to is justified..I have him about a 160+ hoss on todays time..and he won easily

if the 2nd + 3rd back that time up ..it will be very interesting to see them again
 
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Ive just watched Min for the first time and I don't know if he has Faugheen or Douvans engine yet but wow can he jump. An absolute natural.
 
Odds are bordering on criminal. I've won the on the last two Supremes thanks to this juggernaut but win or lose I'll be dodging this bookie-bottle-job to the extreme.

Lay ?. No chance. Not my strategy anyhow.

Buveur Dair and Yanworth at the odds ?. Absolutely.
 
The bookies have had it in the ass from these connections in the last two Supremes. Is it really any wonder they are keen to duck Min?
 
Altior and buveur dair now the value e/w pokes for me.Altior seriously impressive on the clock last time and he wasn't stopping-8/1 tasty
 
Can be nothing but impressed by Min yesterday.
Bookies could be getting smashed on first day.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Min is now rated 147P by Timeform
Click to expand...

they confuse me..way high with some..low with others..Min hammered a 142 RPR hoss..but they only give 5 extra..should be at least 158+. Altior was a 152 on my calcs in December after it won at Ascot

thats way too conservative no matter how you read form or time rate or whatever
 
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They expect will have taken a reasonably strict interpretation of the winning-distance to generate the rating, EC1 (second has OR of 132, so scales clearly not the same), with the large P denoting that the horse is expected to be capable of running to a much higher rating.
 
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their ratings though are generally about 8lb higher than mine..overall..whenever i see a TF rating i mentally knock a few off for what i have..this is other way round by some way...doesn't add up. I'll wager they have more than 132 for teh 2nd horse..you can usually add at least 8 to official ratings to get what they have

i do believe they latch on to certain horses..ie Golden Horn on the flat..and they have them as a sort of figurehead horse..Min appears to not be one of them...does anyone know what they have for Altior for instance?

Douvan was OR rated 155 at this last year..and even Ruby says this one is similar..even if he isn't..he has to be OR 150 minimum..TF always higher than OR
 
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so TF have Altior at the same mark as the Official handicapper had Douvan at same time last year..thats the point i was making about Min being underrated by TF
 
Grasshopper said:
Loving the way Min goes about his trade. Enthusiastic, jumps neatly, travels strongly - everything you would want in a Supreme horse.

Agree he has the look of a chaser about him too.
Click to expand...

Totally agree, hurdles look completely effortless for him he just saunters from one side to the other and doesn't even touch them! Looks a very good prospect.
 
With all respect EC what a crock.

Min looked as if he was late for a wedding and was pulling Ruby's arms out and refused to settle wheras Douvan fell asleep after 2 hurdles and never woke up until Ruby was taking the saddle of his back.

He was tucked away in 4th place all the way round and going at their pace not his.

Min was faster a blind man could see that without a stop watch but better? you are pulling our chain pal :D

If he's within 7 lbs of Douvan he's **** up in the Supreme and I am pretty sure he is but lets not get carried away too much with a phenomenal looking 1/7 win against boats.
 
Kauto Abu said:
I can't believe the bookies cut Min from 11/4 to 5/4 in certain cases after beating a few trees there. He would want to have lapped them to have justified that cut.

On the plus it means others will be massive value and Min, getting lit up as he did today passing the stands, I'll be taking him on every time. Especially with the quality of opposition in Altior, Buveur D'air & Yanworth to name a few.

Altiors time in winning his hurdle race on St Stephen's day was exactly 1 second slower than Faugheen's winning time in the Christmas Hurdle on the same card & about 5 seconds faster than normal over C&D. More importantly Altior was a few seconds faster over the last half mile & that with Faugheen quickening to great affect.

That, to me anyway, leaves a big impression & with Cheltenham to suit him more than Kempton 8/1 is massive.


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Click to expand...

Why on earth do you think Chltenham will suit him better that Aintree eg? He's 100% a 2 mile speedster who go bogged down for about 3 seconds at Kempton and then flew. At Cheltenham he was flat out to get up the hill.

Nicky is sending him back to Kempton, He went there last time when he could have gone to Sandonw's stiff track for twice the money.

I'd hold those AP bets until nearer the time,
 
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