Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

Tanlic said:
With all respect EC what a crock.

Min looked as if he was late for a wedding and was pulling Ruby's arms out and refused to settle wheras Douvan fell asleep after 2 hurdles and never woke up until Ruby was taking the saddle of his back.

He was tucked away in 4th place all the way round and going at their pace not his.

Min was faster a blind man could see that without a stop watch but better? you are pulling our chain pal :D

If he's within 7 lbs of Douvan he's **** up in the Supreme and I am pretty sure he is but lets not get carried away too much with a phenomenal looking 1/7 win against boats.
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yes you are right..its complete rubbish

sorry for cluttering thread up with nonsense...i've removed the post..don't know what i was thinking of really

i
 
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Tanlic said:
Why on earth do you think Chltenham will suit him better that Aintree eg? He's 100% a 2 mile speedster who go bogged down for about 3 seconds at Kempton and then flew. At Cheltenham he was flat out to get up the hill.

Nicky is sending him back to Kempton, He went there last time when he could have gone to Sandonw's stiff track for twice the money.

I'd hold those AP bets until nearer the time,
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Maybe you will, but I wont be holding them. I'd disagree with you there on most points.

Firstly, I don't think Altior is 100% a speed horse. He has a lot of natural speed, but also a lot of stamina in his pedigree. He may actually be suited further in time with High Chaparral tending to turn out stayers over the jumps & they've decided to stay over the minimal trip this season as he can be buzzy in his races. Henderson also has High Chaparral offspring in the form of Hadrians Approach (most notable win over 3m5f in Sandown B365 Gold Cup), Caracci Apache has a G2 win over 3m & Different Gravey has won twice over 2m4f. His dam has form over 20f so that suggests there's more than enough stamina in his pedigree to make Cheltenham and that hill more suitable than Kempton.

Secondly, I can't find a replay of the St. Stephen's Day win, because Apple wont allow the Flash Player Racing UK demand to allow viewing, but my abiding memory is that Nico was getting animated on him around that last turn before getting him out into the open where he powered home. I could be wrong, and would love to see the finish again (if anyone can source it please put it up here) but my abiding memory, having invested heavily, is that I was worried for a little longer than 3 seconds.

Thirdly, I don't think he was entirely 'flat out' to get up the hill at Cheltenham when beating Maputo, a very good ex flat horse going for a 5 timer. He had the hinderance of the loose horse, Drumlee Sunset, who hampered him after they turned in. He was ridden after the last & stuck on gamely up the hill with the loose horse virtually shadowing him without actually hindering him from the last. The plus side, unlike some of Henderson's he finds plenty when tackled and that stamina in his pedigree told. It was only Altior's second start over hurdles and he was entitled to improve,(which he did judging by how far he beat Simon Squirrel by from Cheltenham to Kempton). Maputo, running for a bang in form stable, had 4 hurdle wins to his name since mid August & was as fit as a flea.

And lastly, Nicky Henderson is sending him back to Kempton again. It's no secret he likes to get a run, if possible, into them at Kempton before March. He feels it sharpens them up so I wouldn't be reading too much into that.

Personally I'd prefer if he kept him fresh for March but who am I to doubt the man who's trained the most festival winners ever? I suppose he's buzzy and racing keeps the edge off him.



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Download Puffin and use it as a browser Kauto. Gets round the flash player problem and works fine on your apple devices.
 
Thanks lads. Got it sorted there & watched a replay. Nico definitely got fairly animated on him coming off the bend between 3 & 2 out and the commentator even said taking that last bend he was now 'driven'. Open Eagle was travelling like a dream in front for Ruby and that allowed Altior to get off the rail approaching 2 out and surge home but he definitely responded very well to Nico's urgings to get back on track.

He definitely has a nice mix of speed and stamina which will hopefully stand him in good stead come March.




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Kauto Abu said:
Maybe you will, but I wont be holding them. I'd disagree with you there on most points.

Firstly, I don't think Altior is 100% a speed horse. He has a lot of natural speed, but also a lot of stamina in his pedigree. He may actually be suited further in time with High Chaparral tending to turn out stayers over the jumps & they've decided to stay over the minimal trip this season as he can be buzzy in his races. Henderson also has High Chaparral offspring in the form of Hadrians Approach (most notable win over 3m5f in Sandown B365 Gold Cup), Caracci Apache has a G2 win over 3m & Different Gravey has won twice over 2m4f. His dam has form over 20f so that suggests there's more than enough stamina in his pedigree to make Cheltenham and that hill more suitable than Kempton.

Secondly, I can't find a replay of the St. Stephen's Day win, because Apple wont allow the Flash Player Racing UK demand to allow viewing, but my abiding memory is that Nico was getting animated on him around that last turn before getting him out into the open where he powered home. I could be wrong, and would love to see the finish again (if anyone can source it please put it up here) but my abiding memory, having invested heavily, is that I was worried for a little longer than 3 seconds.

Thirdly, I don't think he was entirely 'flat out' to get up the hill at Cheltenham when beating Maputo, a very good ex flat horse going for a 5 timer. He had the hinderance of the loose horse, Drumlee Sunset, who hampered him after they turned in. He was ridden after the last & stuck on gamely up the hill with the loose horse virtually shadowing him without actually hindering him from the last. The plus side, unlike some of Henderson's he finds plenty when tackled and that stamina in his pedigree told. It was only Altior's second start over hurdles and he was entitled to improve,(which he did judging by how far he beat Simon Squirrel by from Cheltenham to Kempton). Maputo, running for a bang in form stable, had 4 hurdle wins to his name since mid August & was as fit as a flea.

And lastly, Nicky Henderson is sending him back to Kempton again. It's no secret he likes to get a run, if possible, into them at Kempton before March. He feels it sharpens them up so I wouldn't be reading too much into that.

Personally I'd prefer if he kept him fresh for March but who am I to doubt the man who's trained the most festival winners ever? I suppose he's buzzy and racing keeps the edge off him.



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Have you been reading my mail ? :D Yes Nicky likes to run them at Kempton to sharpen them up for Cheltenham but not at that meeting he doesn't.

He sends 2nd and 3rd string to the meeting or horses he thinks might not be suited to Cheltenham.

Last year he sent Bivouc while his main 3 triumph horses stayed at home and he got stuffed. Days of Thunder won the Dovecote but missed Cheltenham for Aintree.

He had a couple of runners the year before Full Shift who won but failed at Cheltenham along with Cup Final who bombed out in both the Dovecott and the Supreme. He ran a well touted bumper horse that day and he missed Cheltenham to go to Aintree.

He did win the Dovecot in 2013 with Forgotten Voice who Guess what? Missed Cheltenham for Aintree only to be trounced by My Tent or Yours

Every runner he's had in the race in the last 10 years has failed to win the Superme or even come close. One however did win the Adonis at the meeting and that was my old pal Binocular who Nicky was told wouldn't be running at Cheltenham and would be going to Aintree until the famous 11th hour phone call (wasn't even being quoted in the race until 12 hours before the off) He did have another winner at the meeting that day Riverside Theatre but he missed Cheltenham to go to Newbury. Punjabi won the Adonis but failed to win Katchit's Triumph but he wasn't that highly thought of at the time.

If you can think of one horse that Nicky ran at Kempton on the last Saturday of February and went on to win at Cheltenham the same year you are a better man than me.

That could all change with this horse but our Nicky is going to Kempton because he is terrified and rightly so of WPM/Min and you can be sure he will be half thinking of missing the Supreme in favour of Aintree. Very much a case of a bird in the hand and Nicky could surely have gone for the Dovecot with another horse

Nicky describes Altior as an out and out 2 miler so I doubt if he'll be stepping him up any time soon.
 
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Kauto Abu said:
Maybe you will, but I wont be holding them. I'd disagree with you there on most points.

Firstly, I don't think Altior is 100% a speed horse. He has a lot of natural speed, but also a lot of stamina in his pedigree. He may actually be suited further in time with High Chaparral tending to turn out stayers over the jumps & they've decided to stay over the minimal trip this season as he can be buzzy in his races. Henderson also has High Chaparral offspring in the form of Hadrians Approach (most notable win over 3m5f in Sandown B365 Gold Cup), Caracci Apache has a G2 win over 3m & Different Gravey has won twice over 2m4f. His dam has form over 20f so that suggests there's more than enough stamina in his pedigree to make Cheltenham and that hill more suitable than Kempton.

Secondly, I can't find a replay of the St. Stephen's Day win, because Apple wont allow the Flash Player Racing UK demand to allow viewing, but my abiding memory is that Nico was getting animated on him around that last turn before getting him out into the open where he powered home. I could be wrong, and would love to see the finish again (if anyone can source it please put it up here) but my abiding memory, having invested heavily, is that I was worried for a little longer than 3 seconds.

Thirdly, I don't think he was entirely 'flat out' to get up the hill at Cheltenham when beating Maputo, a very good ex flat horse going for a 5 timer. He had the hinderance of the loose horse, Drumlee Sunset, who hampered him after they turned in. He was ridden after the last & stuck on gamely up the hill with the loose horse virtually shadowing him without actually hindering him from the last. The plus side, unlike some of Henderson's he finds plenty when tackled and that stamina in his pedigree told. It was only Altior's second start over hurdles and he was entitled to improve,(which he did judging by how far he beat Simon Squirrel by from Cheltenham to Kempton). Maputo, running for a bang in form stable, had 4 hurdle wins to his name since mid August & was as fit as a flea.

And lastly, Nicky Henderson is sending him back to Kempton again. It's no secret he likes to get a run, if possible, into them at Kempton before March. He feels it sharpens them up so I wouldn't be reading too much into that.

Personally I'd prefer if he kept him fresh for March but who am I to doubt the man who's trained the most festival winners ever? I suppose he's buzzy and racing keeps the edge off him.
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So much of this I agree with.

By the way, KA, if you have a Skybet account you can access their entire race video archive* but I don't use Apple stuff so maybe that wouldn't make any difference to you.

For me, you really only need to watch Altior in action to know Cheltenham will suit him far better than Kempton or Aintree. He has a lot of size about him and a ground devouring stride.

*The only issue I have with it is that the pictures supplied by ATR (nearly all Irish races included) have the aspect ratio wrong. This gives a slightly distorted perception.
 
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Flown won both the Dovecot and the Supreme but there was over 2 weeks between races that year.......oops I messed up...EDIT Cheltenham doesn't start to the 15th to take in St Patricks day so as you were.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
So much of this I agree with.

By the way, KA, if you have a Skybet account you can access their entire race video archive* but I don't use Apple stuff so maybe that wouldn't make any difference to you.

For me, you really only need to watch Altior in action to know Cheltenham will suit him far better than Kempton or Aintree. He has a lot of size about him and a ground devouring stride.

*The only issue I have with it is that the pictures supplied by ATR (nearly all Irish races included) have the aspect ratio wrong. This gives a slightly distorted perception.
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Thanks Desert Orchid, Racing UK seem to insist on flash player where as ATR let you watch it immediately. I think I have found a way around it now tho.

Ya again I agree there with everything you say about Altior's size & stride. That bit of stamina in his pedigree is necessary there too and means he's a lot more settled in his races, all be it a tad buzzy, than flat breeds like My Tent or Peace & Co who pull the arms out of their jockeys using up precious energy.


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Tanlic said:
Flown won both the Dovecot and the Supreme but there was over 2 weeks between races that year.......oops I messed up...EDIT Cheltenham doesn't start to the 15th to take in St Patricks day so as you were.
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To be honest Tanlic I stopped reading your initial post early at;

"He sends 2nd and 3rd string to the meeting or horses he thinks might not be suited to Cheltenham"


Altior has won a Supreme novice trial at his only visit to the course & is 4/4 over hurdles having clocked a similar time to Faugheen last time out so he's obviously bang up there in regards novice hurdle ranks. The betting would suggest he's the stable's first choice and clear 2nd fav for the Supreme!!

I didn't read the rest of your post initially but I see you answered your own question now so I suppose your a better man than yourself.......if that makes sense. ;) At least it stopped me from a bit of research, there had to be one or two there with over 50 winners.

Henderson is not afraid to run his festival horses from mid to the end of Feb if he feels it will be an advantage to them full stop. My Tent or yours in that Kempton bumpers for jumpers in '14 to take the edge off him while the rest of the field were tucked up in their box a good example. People laughed at the idea yet the horse was a head away from winning the Champion Hurdle.

Also to suggest he's running scared of Min is just plain silly.


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tiggers1972 said:
Didn't Soldatino win at Kempton and then the Triumph?
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Yes indeed, there's another one. The '10 Triumph I think, beat Barizan?? As I said with 53 festival winners there's bound to be a few.

Other horses mightn't have had a run since January coming into the festival. It's very much horse dependent and like him or loathe him Henderson will always do right by the horse.


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Une Artiste is another horse. Well beaten by Baby Mix (40L) in that Kempton meeting before going on to win the '12 Triumph under Jerry McGrath.


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Katarino, in 1999, won at Kempton by 8L before following up with victory in the Triumph hurdle 2 weeks later, again by 8L.


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Altior's already had 4 runs over hurdles and a fifth would be quite high for a typical Supreme winner. Anybody using NJH's past methods for getting horses to the Supreme needs to consider regardless of how many near misses he's had it's a race where he constantly falls short, even with CH standard horses, so there's every chance he would try something different.

And although I put Altior as my dark horse in the TTF I just don't see him winning the supreme. I'm normally on the lookout for a more inexperienced horse with greater potential. He looked outpaced to me turning in at Kempton and that can't be a good sign in a race where they often go a right clip.

I'm really keen on Buveur D'air if he definitely goes there and have pieces at 14/1 but at this stage there's no denying Min's chances even if his price is bordering on criminal. It has however reached a point where it's a no-bet race until we see what offers are available nearer the day as a couple of £50 no lose offers on Buveur D'air would be good news providing Nicky gets another successful run into him before then.
 
Here's an extract from Lydia Hislop’s very readable ‘Road to Cheltenham series’ on the Sporting Life website. It is what I would have written if I could write…

Novice hurdlers
At Punchestown last Saturday, all eyes were on the fearsome Min, whom bookmakers had sought to make as unattractive as possible in the ante-post market for the SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle even before he made his Irish debut last month. He completed his latest task in good style and is now best priced at a ludicrous 6/4.
If winning the opening race of the 2016 Festival for Walsh, Mullins and owner Rich Ricci, Min would be following in the footsteps of the last three victors: Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan. He could also be the opening act in that team again dominating the first-day card, with Douvan, Faugheen and Annie Power or Vroum Vroum Mag to follow.
After coming within one hurdle of an incredible pay-out on the first day of last year's Cheltenham Festival (insofar as incredible pay-outs are allowed to happen in the British betting industry) when accumulators linking Douvan, Vautour and Faugheen hit the dust along with Annie Power, bookmakers have been intent on keeping their trousers firmly in place this time around.
But it's not just bookmakers manoeuvring frantically. Ratings services are also doing their best to inflate Min's numbers so he arrives at Cheltenham as their top-rated contender. On Attheraces on Monday, Timeform's Jamie Lynch even begged Mullins to run Min in the Deloitte so they can grant him a big figure.
And there's the truth of it: Min's reputation far outstrips his achievements. As Lynch's mostly humorous plea implied, one of the reasons is that Min hasn't had the opportunity to take as high a rank as his audience believes him capable. He just hasn't run in good enough races.
Now, it might be he's perfectly able to justify this giddy infatuation. There is certainly a hell of a lot to like about the way he jumps - he's agile and sure-footed - and he wasn't even remotely extended when beating Attribution by nine-and-a-half lengths here. The time was very good.
He also moves like a horse who'll improve when encountering a sounder surface and that usually happens in a Supreme. His trainer has endorsed that interpretation, noting after this Grade Two success: "I think he's going to be better on better ground. I was concerned about that heavy ground. He does his best work at home on good ground."
However, Mullins' other comments contain reference to one less positive aspect of the performance. Having hitherto been at characteristic pains to play down Min's form, he said: "The way he pulled early on and when the other two caught up with him, I thought we'll find out what's in the tank. But the way he drew clear and jumped the last like a fresh horse showed exactly what he had in the tank!"
Min was indeed keen from the outset, so keen that when he took off a half-stride too early at the third due to his sheer enthusiasm for matching strides with the leader - and cleared it soundly but at a stretch - Walsh decided to let him go clear. He settled better in front and proceeded to jump in that attractive way but, of course, he was entirely unhassled on a long lead.
His closest pursuers were ridden to get within three lengths at the second last but were unable to muster any further challenge. This may not be solely due to Min's ability; it's at least partly due to their lack of it.
Attribution is the horse who slammed the brakes on when leading A Great View approaching the last at Punchestown last month; in overtaking him under pressure, the winner was unimpressive and the runner-up I described as "one to be wary of" in Road 4. Last Saturday's third was Ball D'Arc, who had previously been steadily improving at a fair level. Racing Post Ratings have him progressing 15lbs here.
To my mind, it's no wonder that Min "drew away and jumped the last like a fresh horse" - he had vastly inferior rivals to beat. But it's highly unlikely he'll be able to race that fiercely in a Supreme and get away with it against horses that are rated near or, already in the case of Altior, more highly than him.
Do not misunderstand me: Min is clearly a major nascent talent and he could well win a Supreme, but he has elements of unprofessionalism and has neither achieved enough nor his prospective rivals so little to merit being 6/4. That's a bad price.
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No surprise that LH is seeking to talk-down Min, having put Altior up for the Supreme a few weeks back. We all do this, to an extent.
 
Kauto Abu said:
Yes indeed, there's another one. The '10 Triumph I think, beat Barizan?? As I said with 53 festival winners there's bound to be a few.

Other horses mightn't have had a run since January coming into the festival. It's very much horse dependent and like him or loathe him Henderson will always do right by the horse.


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zarkandar did the same double in 2011
 
Rightly or wrongly I took the view that Altior was not for me in the Supreme Min or no Min. I would rather look elsewhere for an alternative. Buveur D'air is the one I want to see again.
 
Substitute the name 'Douvan' for 'Min' and that article could've been written 12 months ago.

From a betting perspective it will be exactly the same strategy as last year. Include Min in the acca's whilst also taking him on with the risk free bets that will surely be offered nearer the time.
 
TheBear said:
Substitute the name 'Douvan' for 'Min' and that article could've been written 12 months ago.
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To be fair to Douvan he had beaten horses like Sizing John & Alpha Des Obeaux along the way who were a lot more superior to what min was taking on.

Added to that Douvan didn't get lit up in any of his prior races. If he does that at Cheltenham it's game over with the quality of horse behind him.


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TheBear said:
Substitute the name 'Douvan' for 'Min' and that article could've been written 12 months ago.

From a betting perspective it will be exactly the same strategy as last year. Include Min in the acca's whilst also taking him on with the risk free bets that will surely be offered nearer the time.
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I agree with that but Douvan was available at 3/1 straight after the Moscow Flyer before shortening to 5/2, which was available on the day of the Supreme (and 3/1 in some places on the morning in offers etc.). Min was no bigger than 3/1 BEFORE the Moscow Flyer after one 4/11 maiden win to his name.

He could turn out to be the next Pegasus but still didn't warrant that.
 
wilsonl said:
I agree with that but Douvan was available at 3/1 straight after the Moscow Flyer before shortening to 5/2, which was available on the day of the Supreme (and 3/1 in some places on the morning in offers etc.). Min was no bigger than 3/1 BEFORE the Moscow Flyer after one 4/11 maiden win to his name.

He could turn out to be the next Pegasus but still didn't warrant that.
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Yes the price is ridiculous, but as Hislop alludes to herself, you can't really blame the bookies for running scared of history repeating itself for a 4th year in a row. I can't remember a time when one yard was so dominant and can be relied upon to have their horses in peak fitness in March. I'm struggling to think of a Mullins horse that has run below par at the last two festivals.

If I was a bookie I'd be making sure that I was on the right side of all his runners, especially in the grade 1 events.

I also agree with the point made about who Douvan had beat but we're looking at it retrospectively. Sizing John went off 25/1 for that Supreme so he wasn't really considered to be in the top bracket of that years novices.
 
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