Novice hurdlers
At Punchestown last Saturday, all eyes were on the fearsome Min, whom bookmakers had sought to make as unattractive as possible in the ante-post market for the SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle even before he made his Irish debut last month. He completed his latest task in good style and is now best priced at a ludicrous 6/4.
If winning the opening race of the 2016 Festival for Walsh, Mullins and owner Rich Ricci, Min would be following in the footsteps of the last three victors: Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan. He could also be the opening act in that team again dominating the first-day card, with Douvan, Faugheen and Annie Power or Vroum Vroum Mag to follow.
After coming within one hurdle of an incredible pay-out on the first day of last year's Cheltenham Festival (insofar as incredible pay-outs are allowed to happen in the British betting industry) when accumulators linking Douvan, Vautour and Faugheen hit the dust along with Annie Power, bookmakers have been intent on keeping their trousers firmly in place this time around.
But it's not just bookmakers manoeuvring frantically. Ratings services are also doing their best to inflate Min's numbers so he arrives at Cheltenham as their top-rated contender. On Attheraces on Monday, Timeform's Jamie Lynch even begged Mullins to run Min in the Deloitte so they can grant him a big figure.
And there's the truth of it: Min's reputation far outstrips his achievements. As Lynch's mostly humorous plea implied, one of the reasons is that Min hasn't had the opportunity to take as high a rank as his audience believes him capable. He just hasn't run in good enough races.
Now, it might be he's perfectly able to justify this giddy infatuation. There is certainly a hell of a lot to like about the way he jumps - he's agile and sure-footed - and he wasn't even remotely extended when beating Attribution by nine-and-a-half lengths here. The time was very good.
He also moves like a horse who'll improve when encountering a sounder surface and that usually happens in a Supreme. His trainer has endorsed that interpretation, noting after this Grade Two success: "I think he's going to be better on better ground. I was concerned about that heavy ground. He does his best work at home on good ground."
However, Mullins' other comments contain reference to one less positive aspect of the performance. Having hitherto been at characteristic pains to play down Min's form, he said: "The way he pulled early on and when the other two caught up with him, I thought we'll find out what's in the tank. But the way he drew clear and jumped the last like a fresh horse showed exactly what he had in the tank!"
Min was indeed keen from the outset, so keen that when he took off a half-stride too early at the third due to his sheer enthusiasm for matching strides with the leader - and cleared it soundly but at a stretch - Walsh decided to let him go clear. He settled better in front and proceeded to jump in that attractive way but, of course, he was entirely unhassled on a long lead.
His closest pursuers were ridden to get within three lengths at the second last but were unable to muster any further challenge. This may not be solely due to Min's ability; it's at least partly due to their lack of it.
Attribution is the horse who slammed the brakes on when leading A Great View approaching the last at Punchestown last month; in overtaking him under pressure, the winner was unimpressive and the runner-up I described as "one to be wary of" in Road 4. Last Saturday's third was Ball D'Arc, who had previously been steadily improving at a fair level. Racing Post Ratings have him progressing 15lbs here.
To my mind, it's no wonder that Min "drew away and jumped the last like a fresh horse" - he had vastly inferior rivals to beat. But it's highly unlikely he'll be able to race that fiercely in a Supreme and get away with it against horses that are rated near or, already in the case of Altior, more highly than him.
Do not misunderstand me: Min is clearly a major nascent talent and he could well win a Supreme, but he has elements of unprofessionalism and has neither achieved enough nor his prospective rivals so little to merit being 6/4. That's a bad price.
Yes Nicky likes to run them at Kempton to sharpen them up for Cheltenham but not at that meeting he doesn't.
At least it stopped me from a bit of research, there had to be one or two there with over 50 winners. 
