Novice Hurdlers 2016/17

Absurdistan said:
hahaha the kiss of death on my double of Lough Derg Spirit and Claimantakinforgan.
On first view lds stuck me as a neptune horse, but eats the ground up, jumps beautifully and appears to have a serious engine.
I'm hoping for a strongly run race.
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Ya likewise here. I was very taken with his debut under rules. He jumped for fun but I don't think he beat much. Indeed his stablemate Silverhow was beaten out of site next time out in a better race and he was still pitching with a chance after the 2nd last in LDS win.

The Captain Forez form line for me is stronger with Pingshou winning a good Cheltenham race and making Jenkins get quite serious to win. Bags Groove got pipped on the line yesterday by an inspired Dickie Johnson ride but they pulled miles clear of previous winners. CF French form is quite encouraging too. At the prices he was the bet for me and he's getting weight all around.


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RP saying Skybet gone NRNB for the Supreme at the Festival, I thought it was for their race at Ascot tomorrow ?


edit......both RP and SL running with it so guess it's right
 
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Lough Derg Spirit would have more toe than Thomas Campbell and should get first run on him. He took a bit of time to get going last time out and even on this stiffer course he might not catch the fav

Lough Derg Spirit and Thomas Campbell f/c worth a bet
 
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I think they all reckon Jenkins is a Wonder Horse, are are boosting for the form behind him. I think it's strong enough, but might be getting over-rated.

LDS did it in a common canter at Kempton, and whilst it was a weaker race, the manner was all class. I'm hopeful that he can prove it again today. Henderson's other yoke does worry me though.
 
I've done very well from Jenkins form lines from that Punchestown bumper last season and the Newbury race this year so that's why I'm keen on Captain Forez. I think Jenkins could be a bit special and CF kept him honest 'til he tired late on at Newbury.


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Kauto Abu said:
Maybe. LDS is taking some walk in the market whereas TC is shortening.


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Keep in Line seems to have been heavily supported throughout the morning too.
I was quite keen on Captain Forez myself, but haven't had a bet yet. Looks wide open between the top 4 protagonists. Probably not the best value bet any of us will have today.
 
I took the 25/1 Lough Derg Spirit for the Supreme straight after Kempton so I'll be well happy if he can dispatch these. His jumping we impeccable that day and I'm hoping for more of the same.

No bet on today's race though and I'm concerned by the flip flopping of favouritism.
 
Nothing like doing your dough before Xmas. Still it was only small stakes and while the winner did it well enough today you'd have to see that as another boost for Jenkins with Captain Forez running well enough as he would have been a lot further behind the Jenkins horse had the latter jumped during the early part of the Newbury race.
 
LDS & TC both need a trip, winner robbed it from the front with a good ride but I don't think he'll be near winning it come March. The one thing to take from his win is they'll have a hare for the Supreme.

Captain Forez will be some chaser. You get the feeling whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus, Harry Skelton minded him up the straight and he'll excel once he fills out his huge frame. Two cracks of the whip but enough to grab second without getting anyway serious.


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trefflich said:
All over the Mullins horse to derail the DD hype train...beaten nothing so far
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Definitely siding with invitation Only at the prices. He's not flashy but he was regarded as their best bumper horse last year. Elliott has said Death Duty will be an Albert Bartlett horse too.

You'd think one of them will take a wander in their respective market too, at which point I'll be backing them in the Neptune/AB depending on whoever is defeated.
 
A lot of support for Invitation Only the past few days which will probably see him go off fav today. He is the speedier of the two battling for favouritism and getting 3lbs off DD could swing it in his favour. I'm waiting on him to fill a double with Harry from Ascot yesterday.

However, I think Moulin A Vent is also way overpriced in this at 20/1 also and have done him ew in the hope he might nick second. There's no way he should be that price, his form is rock solid and is similar enough to Monalee & Baltazar D'aillier who are much shorter. Sean Flanagan raves about this fella.

He beat Brelade over 2m in Galway. Brelade has won twice since beating Battelford & Joey Salsa. That form should be held up again in the first at Navan. Monbeg Notorious got the better of him in Down Royal and he's since run 2nd in a graded race where the ground looked to have gone against him in Cork. And on his last outing he beat Minella Til Dawn & Runfordave, both have won since beating classy performers. MTD yesterday beat a Mullins horse that had attracted lorry loads of money!!

On a side note MAV is available for the Neptune with B365 at 25/1 but is s massive 50/1 with pp. Taking into consideration there are horses in the Neptune market who wont be next nor near the starters flag come March 15th next, that certainly looks value to me so that's another to add to my early festival bets.


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