barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,775
Mmm, I wish he was as laid-back as CH. With the raucous Cheltenham crowd he might throw the race away before it starts. I’ll jump off him quickly if it looks ominous.
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Novice Hurdlers 21/22
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
Mmm, I wish he was as laid-back as CH. With the raucous Cheltenham crowd he might throw the race away before it starts. I’ll jump off him quickly if it looks ominous.
granger
Senior Jockey
In that ground, I wouldn't hold it against a horse to not look spectacular
Take the pluses from it namely he got another day out and not a **** easy race
Take the pluses from it namely he got another day out and not a **** easy race
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I caught a clip of Aiden saying just that......he said nothing would quicken up in the ground it was very tacky which is often the case at Haydock
granger
Senior Jockey
Any Haydock race should carry a squiggle
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The ground was pretty much gs on the hurdle track.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
There's an element of truth in that.
Gaz's Way De Solzen
Apprentice
Stewart Machin said, just as they jumped off, that he had got 'warm' in the parade ring.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That's being silly
Gaz's Way De Solzen
Apprentice
I think he will win the race, think he is a proper horse. He's the one I am on for the Supreme.
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Tanlic is getting a it of stick here, and I think he's spot on with regards Dysart Dynamo being the most deliberate and least fluent of the big four in the Supreme market.
I've watched all their races back several times now and Sir Gerhard and Jonbon are much quicker over their hurdles than Dysart Dynamo is, who at times is a bit ponderous and less fluent, generally spending more time in the air. Something Willie can work on for sure, but given Sir Gerhard has the prime spot with his entry at the DRF, if he wins well enough, there's no way he gets shifted out of the Supreme I don't think.
If that happens then it becomes a case of whether Willie want to go with two guns or whether he splits them. The Ballymore looks the easier race to win, so given previous MO you'd think he will want one of them running in it. Therefore it's worth looking at the profile of Willie's Supreme winners to see which is more likely to stay there. He's a creature of habit and for the Supreme all of his winners have either started out in points or out of France. His few candidates that started out in bumpers have all been unplaced and have a 0% win and place record. In other words Dysart Dynamo doesn't fit his usual MO. Experience also seems to have become increasingly important for the race. DD will lack it with a couple of relatively easy bumpers and hurdles as his only career experience. So you have to surmise his overall profile looks more suited to a Mullins Ballymore type.
Ultimately though, even with this kind of analysis none of us know what goes where, and Willie definitely won't have made a decision yet because he doesn't need to. And as we've seen to our cost sometimes, that's right up to the last minute (Vautour anyone?!). So we can only have opinion rather than be certain, but it's definitely worth looking at the reasons that decisions might be made.
I've heard people say the market is suggesting a decision has been made, but that's rubbish. The run on prices for DD Supreme and Sir G Ballymore is because people will have had big antepost positions on both Dysart Dynamo for the Ballymore and Sir Gerhard for the Supreme, so the bookies will have seen a ton of money the other way round in a very short space of time. so they will just cut because they can knowing punting behaviour. Given they have a stack of money the other way round they move to a win/win position and it's in their interests to cut DD for the Supreme and Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore, and run of money forces them to do it anyway. Ne money for Dysart Dynamo for the Supreme will have come as well because he just won a recognised Supreme trial, so he was sure to be very heavily cut. None of which means he goes to the race though.
FWIW I see the case both ways, but when considering all these factors, if Sir Gerhard puts a performance in at the DRF then I'd still see it as Sir Gerhard Supreme and Dysart Dynamo Ballymore. I'd also add that Sir Gerhard is the only one that's been in a decent race so far, and he'll get another one in a couple of weeks. If he does that well I think his current Supreme price will look ridiculous.
I've watched all their races back several times now and Sir Gerhard and Jonbon are much quicker over their hurdles than Dysart Dynamo is, who at times is a bit ponderous and less fluent, generally spending more time in the air. Something Willie can work on for sure, but given Sir Gerhard has the prime spot with his entry at the DRF, if he wins well enough, there's no way he gets shifted out of the Supreme I don't think.
If that happens then it becomes a case of whether Willie want to go with two guns or whether he splits them. The Ballymore looks the easier race to win, so given previous MO you'd think he will want one of them running in it. Therefore it's worth looking at the profile of Willie's Supreme winners to see which is more likely to stay there. He's a creature of habit and for the Supreme all of his winners have either started out in points or out of France. His few candidates that started out in bumpers have all been unplaced and have a 0% win and place record. In other words Dysart Dynamo doesn't fit his usual MO. Experience also seems to have become increasingly important for the race. DD will lack it with a couple of relatively easy bumpers and hurdles as his only career experience. So you have to surmise his overall profile looks more suited to a Mullins Ballymore type.
Ultimately though, even with this kind of analysis none of us know what goes where, and Willie definitely won't have made a decision yet because he doesn't need to. And as we've seen to our cost sometimes, that's right up to the last minute (Vautour anyone?!). So we can only have opinion rather than be certain, but it's definitely worth looking at the reasons that decisions might be made.
I've heard people say the market is suggesting a decision has been made, but that's rubbish. The run on prices for DD Supreme and Sir G Ballymore is because people will have had big antepost positions on both Dysart Dynamo for the Ballymore and Sir Gerhard for the Supreme, so the bookies will have seen a ton of money the other way round in a very short space of time. so they will just cut because they can knowing punting behaviour. Given they have a stack of money the other way round they move to a win/win position and it's in their interests to cut DD for the Supreme and Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore, and run of money forces them to do it anyway. Ne money for Dysart Dynamo for the Supreme will have come as well because he just won a recognised Supreme trial, so he was sure to be very heavily cut. None of which means he goes to the race though.
FWIW I see the case both ways, but when considering all these factors, if Sir Gerhard puts a performance in at the DRF then I'd still see it as Sir Gerhard Supreme and Dysart Dynamo Ballymore. I'd also add that Sir Gerhard is the only one that's been in a decent race so far, and he'll get another one in a couple of weeks. If he does that well I think his current Supreme price will look ridiculous.
Ant before you write an essay at least look at what Willie Mullins ran in the race Dysart Dynamo won previously. I'll give you a clue...
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Are you trying to suggest they thought Dysart Dynamo was their Supreme horse before the Moscow Flyer and they targeted the race because of it?
I don't need any clues. Since the DRF race was reduced to 2 miles in 2018 all his number one Supreme horses have come from there. He hasn't used the Moscow Flyer for his first string for a long time. If you're referencing Douvan and Vautour which presumably you are that was when the Leopardstown race was over 2m2f.
As for the essay, I was going to do a four part video, but I was concerned I'd talk a load of shite! :lol:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Look at Dysart Dynamo's running style and ground preference. He is not a horse for the Ballymore. Sir Gerhard is still massively overpriced for the Ballymore.
Wasn't Appreciate It's bumper over 2m4f. Things change.
He's won on soft and yielding, including on soft over two miles two and half, so I'm not sure another couple of furlongs is likely to inconvenience him. He's more stoutly bred than Sir G too.
His running style is fine for both races. There's no sign of him tearing away, which was Willie's concern before the season started. I would have a question mark over two miles in that that the other three look quicker and slicker over their hurdles, and Tanlic was spot on with that.
Don't forget Sir Gerhard has got a course experience advantage over the others in the book too, so the value is 9/1 for him in the Supreme if you think he wins next week.
Actually I've just checked and he's been clipped into 8/1 by PP and Sportsbook now, and blue elsewhere. But even so 8/1 is much too big.
The bets in my opinion are:
Supreme - Sir Gerhard 8/1
Ballymore - Dysart Dynamo 8/1
And the opposite double DD Supreme and SG Ballymore at whatever price it is now.
The bets in my opinion are:
Supreme - Sir Gerhard 8/1
Ballymore - Dysart Dynamo 8/1
And the opposite double DD Supreme and SG Ballymore at whatever price it is now.
Like an injury to Ferny Hollow. He was the Ballymore horse to that point HW, so it's not the same. Both were also out of Irish Points. Dysart Dynamo isn't.
Again I'll reiterate nobody really knows, but Willie is very much a creature of habit, and there are reasons for it.
I don't think you can call much of what a top trainer does "Habit." I think they have logicked, sounded out reasons for what they do, even if their thinking at some point becomes a little stale and some new young gun comes steaming up to either destroy them or rejuvenate them.
I'm not trying to get involved with the debate of where DD runs (and I haven't looked at SG.) I just take issue with the idea of a "habit" being a reason for anything. Trainers have just as much information as us when they make their decisions. In fact, I'd hazard a guess in saying they have more information than us. Our job is figuring out what information they have extra, via what they've shown, and how that informs us as to what they're going to do.
In that case "habit" is the last thing I'd rely on.
Patterns can only tell you so much, but if you see something to him that is "habit" I'd really like a clear explanation of it (and presume I'm a moron if this post hasn't already lead you to believe so.)
I disagree about running style. Townend said he took off with him after the first in the Moscow Flyer. Not arguing about taking the angle, but I dont think Willie went to the Moscow Flyer to prep for the Ballymore.
I think when you say 'our job is figuring out what information they have extra, via what they've shown, and how that informs us as to what they're going to do', my original post is doing exactly that isn't it?
Therefore I'll substitute the words 'is a creature of habit' for 'follows a sound and proven methodology' to save splitting hairs, and to avoid the confusion I may have caused in my essay! Although I do sometime wonder why I bother, which is why I haven't much recently!
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