Novice & Juvenile Hurdlers 2019/20

Euronymous said:
How they've come up with those ratings for Shishkin **** alone knows.

The horse behind him lto was a typical overrated Sketon, Shan Blue. He was fav for a Newbury novice and fell, didn't look like winning anyway and Severano who did win is hella exposed. He was then joint fav for that race at Warwick when Harry Senior bolted. Well beat in an average renewal by Mossy Fen. I can't see how his OR is higher than Asterion and Abas.
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Weren't people questioning what Altior had done, and ended up allowing Min to go off at a good bit shorter?

Simon Rowlands did a piece on sectionals earlier this week and put up the following figures:

Envoi Allen 158
Abacadabras 157
Asterion Forlonge 156
Shishkin 155
Master Debonair 154
Fiddlerontheroof 153

I have no idea how they compare with previous seasons' novices but they look pretty high to me. Paul Kealy put up Shishkin for this race last month based on his finishing speed (last hurdle to line being very fast by comparison to the ones he beat) backing up visual impression.

It may well be that we have an exceptional group of novices, considering Min was 'only' 152 the day Altior beat him. It's maybe also worth noting that Altior and Min got RPRs of 166 and 160 respectively for that race. That kind of figure, especially Altior's, often gets placed in a Champion Hurdle.
 
Sporting John has to come into the equation for the Supreme or Ballymore after that performance

Slick jumper as well

Around 7s now for the Supreme and Ballymore
 
38 stand their ground in the Triumph Hurdle

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WPM apparently confirming Asterion goes for the Supreme

Mr Donnelly has left it up to us to decide where to run all of his horses and we think this lad should go for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. We had originally considered him to be an Albert Bartlett type as he shows us very little speed at home, but he has been brilliant over much shorter trips.




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I really do fancy Latest Exhibition for the Albert Bartlett. Likeable trainer as well, saw a few interviews on YouTube from his home/stables & really seems a nice guy.
 
Solo. What a lovely horse. No surprise to see him shorten so much for the Triumph. Definitely my idea of the winner.
 
Deeply impressive.

Couldn't really decide between him and the runner-up earlier today so left the race alone, then decided to have a value pop at the King horse Blame It On Sally. If you get the chance to watch the race again, note how the jockey put the brakes on just after the final turn. Clearly much better than the final placing and probably targeting a decent handicap further down the line once it has run enough to qualify for a mark.
 
viking said:
Solo looking impressive there but not sure he beat much


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I really really don't agree with this. The 2nd a listed winner in France and the 3rd has a good run in Ireland. He hasn't beat them, he's destroyed them
 
Slim said:
I really really don't agree with this. The 2nd a listed winner in France and the 3rd has a good run in Ireland. He hasn't beat them, he's destroyed them
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He definitely destroyed them but it looked to me like one of those races where connections of everything else in the race had their money on the front two. Not many of the rest were given hard races from the home turn. I'd largely ignore the horses from third back but beating Fujimoto Flyer so impressively shouldn't be dissed.
 
I don’t care what he beat. It’s the way he did it, the way he traveled and jumped and the physical specimen that he is.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He definitely destroyed them but it looked to me like one of those races where connections of everything else in the race had their money on the front two. Not many of the rest were given hard races from the home turn. I'd largely ignore the horses from third back but beating Fujimoto Flyer so impressively shouldn't be dissed.
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They finished in the right order. The 3rd was a very interesting runner and the 2nd was an expensive purchase. He is the right fav for the Triumph.
 
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Solo massively impressive, and should be clear Fav for the Triumph, imo (edit: I see now he is).

Will jump Goshen and the rest senseless. Already looks the finished article over a hurdle.
 
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I'm somewhat pre programmed to oppose the Adonis winner. You have to go back 10 years to Zarkander and Soldatino days to find winners that have gone on to win the triumph at Cheltenham. In fact since 2011 there hasn't been a single winner of the Adonis even placed in the triumph.

Every year when there is an impressive Adonis winner, there is always a massive overreaction to the triumph market.

Beltor and Redicean are 2 in recent years that stick in the memory as ones that got massively over hyped after their Adonis wins. Both of these went off 2nd fav in the triumph to powerful connections short priced favs (Peace &Co. and Apples Shakira respectively) and finished down the field!

Solo was obviously very very impressive yesterday. But I think because of the way the triumph market was before yesterday, with Goshen, Allmamkind and Aspire tower all much of a muchness, and no clear powerful connections short price fav already in place, that's partly why Solo has (and probably rightly so) jumped to the head of the market.

Right now I'd be inclined to take him on and look for some value EW play. The test at Kempton couldn't be any different to the one they face at Cheltenham and I wonder is it also a case that the races come too close together?
 
Double Handful said:
I'm somewhat pre programmed to oppose the Adonis winner. You have to go back 10 years to Zarkander and Soldatino days to find winners that have gone on to win the triumph at Cheltenham. In fact since 2011 there hasn't been a single winner of the Adonis even placed in the triumph.

Every year when there is an impressive Adonis winner, there is always a massive overreaction to the triumph market.

Beltor and Redicean are 2 in recent years that stick in the memory as ones that got massively over hyped after their Adonis wins. Both of these went off 2nd fav in the triumph to powerful connections short priced favs (Peace &Co. and Apples Shakira respectively) and finished down the field!

Solo was obviously very very impressive yesterday. But I think because of the way the triumph market was before yesterday, with Goshen, Allmamkind and Aspire tower all much of a muchness, and no clear powerful connections short price fav already in place, that's partly why Solo has (and probably rightly so) jumped to the head of the market.

Right now I'd be inclined to take him on and look for some value EW play. The test at Kempton couldn't be any different to the one they face at Cheltenham and I wonder is it also a case that the races come too close together?
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Never seen so much drivel condensed into one excruciating essay...
 
Double Handful said:
Solo was obviously very very impressive yesterday. But I think because of the way the triumph market was before yesterday, with Goshen, Allmamkind and Aspire tower all much of a muchness, and no clear powerful connections short price fav already in place, that's partly why Solo has (and probably rightly so) jumped to the head of the market.
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I've read a few number-crunchers in the last wee while and the consensus is that the exposed juveniles are no great shakes, as was the case in the days of Zarkandar and Soldatino.

That will be a factor in Solo's price.

There's a headline waiting to be written on the Friday morning:

Just Han Solo the Prize...

(Coat :o)
 
Slim said:
Never seen so much drivel condensed into one excruciating essay...
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I only read all the posts above this morning. And the general view from multiple people seemed to be that Solo was a good bet at 3/1 fav for the triumph. I was just trying to be thorough in making a point and backing it up with facts.

Suppose I simply could have said Solo is overrated and underpriced...
 
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