Novice & Juvenile Hurdlers 2019/20

Double Handful said:
I only read all the posts above this morning. And the general view from multiple people seemed to be that Solo was a good bet at 3/1 fav for the triumph. I was just trying to be thorough in making a point and backing it up with facts.

Suppose I simply could have said Solo is overrated and underpriced...
Click to expand...

You draw the conclusion to look for "e/w value in the race" when if you read your own a analysis it's obvious the market was light pre-Solo. He is only going to get shorter. As for looking back at previous Adonis winners and assuming the market always overreacted os dangerous. I wouldn't lay 3/1 Solo myself and if I did how previous winners of the race performed would give me no confidence.
 
In relation to the Triumph market nothing will compare to Apples Shakira and how much money was on her. Bet365 went top price every other horse in the race. There liability must have been around ten million. Solo will be no Apples Shakira and in all likelihood could end up very bankable on the day
 
granger said:
Bigger days lie ahead
Click to expand...
Yeah that was the assumption alright. Slim had been eyeing him up for the county hurdle, but we were discussing on another thread a couple of days ago that it seemed strange that he was declared for today. Surely it's too close to Cheltenham for it to be a prep run or an excercise in manipulating his mark?

Why is he running today is more the question? His current Irish mark of 135 doesn't need any work to get into any festival H'Caps!

He's weak in the market today, so that would suggest there's a bigger target in the pipeline, but what is it?
 
Double Handful said:
Back to today, is Tiger Tap Tap worth backing at 10/1 ?
Click to expand...

More sympathetic hands today in the saddle and the hood applied. It would not surprise me if he ran a big race but I am not backing him. He needs to make the running so what he does at the start will tell you how mindful they are of the 134 mark. Longterm I would love to bet him in a county hurdle off 138-140.
 
Double Handful said:
Yeah that was the assumption alright. Slim had been eyeing him up for the county hurdle, but we were discussing on another thread a couple of days ago that it seemed strange that he was declared for today. Surely it's too close to Cheltenham for it to be a prep run or an excercise in manipulating his mark?

Why is he running today is more the question? His current Irish mark of 135 doesn't need any work to get into any festival H'Caps!

He's weak in the market today, so that would suggest there's a bigger target in the pipeline, but what is it?
Click to expand...

No need to manipulate the mark. He was dropped a pound to 134. This is an exercise in getting the horse more relaxed. I'm told the County Hurdle is the aim.
 
Last edited:
Slim said:
No need to manipulate the mark. He was dropped a pound to 134. This is an exercise in getting the horse more relaxed. I'm told the County Hurdle is the aim.
Click to expand...
Yeah that's what I thought. Mark is fine. You think he could still run in the county in 2 weeks time?


Edit: I see your edit now re: The County hurdle [emoji106]
 
Last edited:
Double Handful said:
Yeah that's what I thought. Mark is fine. You think he could still run in the county in 2 weeks time?
Click to expand...

Once you don't give a horse a hard race there it is no different to a bit of work. If Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls and others think they can prep a horse this soon it just shows you how all the "hard race" theories thrown around after the DRF 6 weeks before the festival were massively wide of the mark.
 
Last edited:
Slim said:
Once you don't give a horse a hard race there it is no different to a bit of word. If Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls and others think they can prep a horse this soon it just shows you how all the "hard race" theories thrown around after the DRF 6 weeks before the festival were massively wide of the mark.
Click to expand...
Yeah I hear you. I was definitely guilty of jumping on that bandwagon, when using the "hard race" he had at DRF as a negative against Notebook.

Wicklow brave won the county hurdle less than 2 weeks after running in the Imperial cup.
 
Double Handful said:
Yeah I hear you. I was definitely guilty of jumping on that bandwagon, when using the "hard race" he had at DRF as a negative against Notebook.

Wicklow brave won the county hurdle less than 2 weeks after running in the Imperial cup.
Click to expand...

Adherents to the 'bounce theory' reckon a horse will be able to produce its best form again after about 6 weeks/42 days although I don't imagine the figure should be taken as rigid.

I think a lot also depends on how 'hard' the race was to start with.

Grundy and Bustino never recovered from their King George. Some Grand National winners never recover. I think Altior took a bit more than six weeks after the Cyrname race to get his mojo back.

As for Wicklow Brave, I'm not sure you could really count his effort in the Imperial Cup as hard race. My memory might be playing tricks on me but as I recall he missed the break and was looked after.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Adherents to the 'bounce theory' reckon a horse will be able to produce its best form again after about 6 weeks/42 days although I don't imagine the figure should be taken as rigid.

I think a lot also depends on how 'hard' the race was to start with.

Grundy and Bustino never recovered from their King George. Some Grand National winners never recover. I think Altior took a bit more than six weeks after the Cyrname race to get his mojo back.

As for Wicklow Brave, I'm not sure you could really count his effort in the Imperial Cup as hard race. My memory might be playing tricks on me but as I recall he missed the break and was looked after.
Click to expand...
Wicklow ran horribly in both the Betfair and Imperial. One of them he definitely missed the start, but can't quite recall which one.

I was on in both and deserted for the county, still to my dismay!! But you're correct in saying he was looked after in both, when any winning chance was gone.
 
I backed him in both too. I'd been invited over to the brother's on the Friday to watch the racing and at the last minute decided to take my laptop with me just in case I wanted to back anything.

In the lead-up to the County we talked about WB's two fruitless visits that season when we woth backed him. The brother said something about being sick if it won and I agreed so I stuck some sickness insurance on at the last minute at something like 25/1.
 
I saw a friend yesterday at the CA Point to Point and he told me he was advised to back Solo for the Triumph when he arrived in the UK. He duly did and has him at 33s!!!
 
Just about everything at the head of the market in the triumph is a front runner. Will be some dash to the first flight!!

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
 
Maxbet said:
Blowing Wind won the Imperial off a mark of 138, 5 days later off 145, he blitzed the County field!
Click to expand...

Is there still a bonus? It was 100k in 2018. The time is not the problem it's how much harder the races are. The last horse I remember going close was Ashkazar the year after Gaspara had actuality completed it in the Fred Winter.
 
Yes think it's £50k now.

Flying Angel only just failed to land the bonus in 2016 after running second in the Martin Pipe.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Yes think it's £50k now.

Flying Angel only just failed to land the bonus in 2016 after running second in the Martin Pipe.
Click to expand...

Impossible to find details of it anywhere. I suppose Paddy Power have just picked up the sponsorship after the Matchbook debacle.
 
jinnyj said:
I saw a friend yesterday at the CA Point to Point and he told me he was advised to back Solo for the Triumph when he arrived in the UK. He duly did and has him at 33s!!!
Click to expand...

Hope he has NRNB. If I had that price and he ended up not running I'd want a sick bag the size of a bin liner.
 
Back
Top