Novice & Juvenile Hurdlers 2019/20

HawkWing said:
My, aren't we defensive. So much nonsense in making an argument. But keep doubling down.
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I'm not sure stating the case for not backing him is being defensive Hawk Wing? You tell me there's something wrong with my staking plan if I don't back him too? You also say I'm talking nonsense? And any of us against him are getting carried away?

I admire your passion. You're presumably all in on him and can't see him being beaten. But to be honest you've completely lost me with where you're going with this and why? It's quite normal for people to have different opinions in racing so I'll just put it down to you having a bad day needing to kick the cat and move on.
 
I’m on a Shishkin roller-coaster here.

Second-guessing myself about his speed. Maybe I’ve been switched-off too long?

I’ll say this. If he goes in the Supreme, I’d fancy his chances, but I’d want to see a moderately-aggressive ride. I’m not saying he needs to make it, but I’d be looking for him to take the race by the scruff of the neck two-out, and dare them to go past.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’m on a Shishkin roller-coaster here.

Second-guessing myself about his speed. Maybe I’ve been switched-off too long?

I’ll say this. If he goes in the Supreme, I’d fancy his chances, but I’d want to see a moderately-aggressive ride. I’m not saying he needs to make it, but I’d be looking for him to take the race by the scruff of the neck two-out, and dare them to go past.
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Which you won’t get with NDB riding. He saves horses for another day, nothing aggressive about his rides at all.
 
I don't get why you have a downer on NdB, DJ.

His record is very good, riding overall at 24% wins this season. That strikes me as pretty high and he's operating consistently around that rate over hurdles, fences and in bumpers.

Richard Johnson is only operating at 18%.
Brian Hughes 21%

Barry Geraghty, who rides much less frequently these days and who can be very selective about what he rides, is on 25%.

I would suggest if you see NdB giving one a negative ride it's very deliberate.
 
Likewise, DO - I’ve no idea why people are hating on Nico. I think he is a perfectly competent jock.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't get why you have a downer on NdB, DJ.

His record is very good, riding overall at 24% wins this season. That strikes me as pretty high and he's operating consistently around that rate over hurdles, fences and in bumpers.

Richard Johnson is only operating at 18%.
Brian Hughes 21%

Barry Geraghty, who rides much less frequently these days and who can be very selective about what he rides, is on 25%.

I would suggest if you see NdB giving one a negative ride it's very deliberate.
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I’ve had this before, I get why people like him, I just can’t. Rides a finish like a 5 year old on a rocking horse. More often than not it appears he doesn’t like to give horses a hard time and saves them for another day, rather than getting stuck in and having to do dirty work.
He doesn’t like a difficult challenge (see the Might Bite unseat at Aintree when he jumps off) could have easily stayed on that horse, as bad an unseat as I’ve seen.
I could name various instances. The Pentland Hills ride st Haydock being one. As poor a ride as I can remember.

Don’t get me wrong he is capable of a good ride, see Coneygree Gold Cup as one example. But if he wasn’t riding for Hendo I can absolutely guarantee his stats won’t be as pleasing to the eye.

I could be talking waffle out of my arse anyway, it’s just literally an opinion and I’m not saying your wrong or I am. I just know I could pick 10 jockeys just over here I’d rather have on my horses.
 
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No way Nico would have the job with Hendo if he was as bad as you make out.
If he rode a finish as bad as you say why are his stats in close finishes nearly top if not top of the tree?
Think it's pocket talk DJ.
 
Double J said:
I’ve had this before, I get why people like him, I just can’t. Rides a finish like a 5 year old on a rocking horse. More often than not it appears he doesn’t like to give horses a hard time and saves them for another day, rather than getting stuck in and having to do dirty work.
He doesn’t like a difficult challenge (see the Might Bite unseat at Aintree when he jumps off) could have easily stayed on that horse, as bad an unseat as I’ve seen.
I could name various instances. The Pentland Hills ride st Haydock being one. As poor a ride as I can remember.

Don’t get me wrong he is capable of a good ride, see Coneygree Gold Cup as one example. But if he wasn’t riding for Hendo I can absolutely guarantee his stats won’t be as pleasing to the eye.

I could be talking waffle out of my arse anyway, it’s just literally an opinion and I’m not saying your wrong or I am. I just know I could pick 10 jockeys just over here I’d rather have on my horses.
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I have a big downer on Richard Johnson and he's the champion jockey so I get where you're coming from DJ. For every good ride I've seen Johnson give, I could point out two bad ones, I reckon, but I'm sure people would disagree with me.

If Pentland Hills looked bad at Haydock, I'd venture that they didn't want it to win that day. Again, no more than unsubstantiated opinion, but I wouldn't have touched it with a barge pole on the day.

Of course he'll get one badly wrong. They all do. But I don't think he gets many wrong.
 
Nico for me is the best jump jockey since Paul Carberry, nowdays the best riding by miles


About Shiskin
looks a very good prospect
but my feeling is that he is going to the Supreme because Envoi Allen is going to the Ballymore
 
Some of the stuff you read about jocks and rides are hilarious.
Nico is a quality jock.
 
Frankel said:
Some of the stuff you read about jocks and rides are hilarious.
Nico is a quality jock.
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Yes
It was amazing

The man has a brain, sense of pace, the horses jump for him and a serious and professional man who knows the stable horses

Top jockey
 
The pocket talk I can’t agree with. Don’t get me wrong I’ve lost a few quid on some of his mounts, but the ones I used as an example just this season I didn’t back, particularly Pentland Hills. I couldn’t have him and was suckered into the Darasso train. But I would certainly feel short changed if I was on Pentland Hills.

Currently in work. Would lobe to give a detailed reason why, but strapped for time. Best of luck with your selections today anyway DO. Nice to see you back posting
 
Pentland Hills is a funny one, last season he showed no indication that he'd stop once in front. His first run at Cheltenham he clearly blew up. At Haydock the jockey hit the front after the last, that to me is perfect race riding, would suggest the horse not the jockey is the issue as he'd shown no previous (over jumps). He did give a poor ride to Lami Serge at Ascot, but then we know he's a dog and a glance through his form shows that not many jocks have got it right on him.
 
So after Chantry House’s win yesterday does Nicky send both him and Shishkin to the Supreme or does he split them up? I’d imagine JP will want a say in where Chantey House goes, and usually he’d want to target the Supreme over the Ballymore. It’s possible Nicky says that Chantry can’t beat Shishkin I suppose.

We’ve also got the Donnelly’s with a similar problem with Asterion Forlonge in the mix. It wouldn’t seem to make much sense for all three to go to the Supreme, but I suspect they all will. The Donnelly’s have The Big Getaway for the Ballymore anyway, unless he goes up in trip for the Albert Bartlett. Not something he looks as though he particularly needs.
 
Given the Donnelly's have both Shishkin and Asterion Forlonge for the Supreme surely they will be tempted to divert one of them to the Champion Hurdle?
 
Maruco said:
Given the Donnelly's have both Shishkin and Asterion Forlonge for the Supreme surely they will be tempted to divert one of them to the Champion Hurdle?
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Why? The Supreme is one of the most prestigious races of the week, as is the Arkle, as is the RSA. Why pass up the chance to win one.
 
Euronymous said:
Darlan and Binocular
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I guess it might be an arguement over definitions - overhyped supposed world beaters don't start at 8/1 (Binocular) and 7/1 (Darlan). Horses with potential absolutely.

Interestingly with hindsight, both deserved to be shorter, and deserving of more hype than they got. Binocular vs Captain Cee Bee and Darlan vs Cinders and Ashes.

If you were guaranteed that Shiskin was to win the 2021 Champion Hurdle, he'd be a bet at 3/1 for the 2020 Supreme.
 
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Darlan 7/1
Binocular 8/1
Altior 9/2
Shishkin 3/1

bookies ducking Hendo novices more and more, price is unjustified, as is Champ's.
 
I want to take Champ on, I just genuinely can’t see with what so far.

Allaho if he goes here, feeling he’ll go for the Marsh and they’ll send Faugheen RSA if at all.
 
Following on from the CH thread, the top 5 in the Supreme betting with OR and best RPR:

11/4 Shishkin 153/154
5/1 Abacadabras 149/151
5/1 Asterion Forlonge 153/156
8/1 Envoi Allen 154/153
8/1 Fiddlerontheroof 154/152
 
How they've come up with those ratings for Shishkin **** alone knows.

The horse behind him lto was a typical overrated Sketon, Shan Blue. He was fav for a Newbury novice and fell, didn't look like winning anyway and Severano who did win is hella exposed. He was then joint fav for that race at Warwick when Harry Senior bolted. Well beat in an average renewal by Mossy Fen. I can't see how his OR is higher than Asterion and Abas.
 
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