Double Handful
At the Start
No entries for Andy Dufresne.
Just heard that. Strange
Not in either Novice hurdle at DRF either - has the horse had a setback?
No entries for Andy Dufresne.
I saw one wag on Twitter describe Nico as “motionless” in the closing stages yesterday, which is completely misleading.
Shishkin was never in any danger, but was ridden right out - in much the same manner as he was at Newbury - and went further and further clear. That’s not demonstrating 2m speed, imo, it’s demonstrating stamina, and in a Supreme Novices, I’d be concerned that the real speedsters might get away from him, before he has a chance to get up to full tilt.
I saw one wag on Twitter describe Nico as “motionless” in the closing stages yesterday, which is completely misleading.
Shishkin was never in any danger, but was ridden right out - in much the same manner as he was at Newbury - and went further and further clear. That’s not demonstrating 2m speed, imo, it’s demonstrating stamina, and in a Supreme Novices, I’d be concerned that the real speedsters might get away from him, before he has a chance to get up to full tilt.
Yesterday Shishkin won easily from a 139 horse who might be some way better than that. The third didn't have an OR and was the 33/1 rag so could arguably pull the form down. The fourth was rated 143 but was only fourth favourite and the only other runner was the 141 third-fav whose measure had been taken two out when he fell. The winner also recorded his highest Topspeed rating. I'm not a fan of Topspeed but at least the figure suggests the race wasn't falsely run.
Via the runner-up, Shishkin is 150+p
Even a notional five lengths in hand would rank him alongside many previous supreme winners and he's likely to improve again by mid-March as the trainer will almost certainly have had him short of his peak.
I think it will take an exceptional performance to beat him.
Edit:
Would I back him right now?
No. This isn't like Altior who was an absolute cert on my figures and who was 8/1 on 05 January. I took out some heavy insurance at 11/4 w/o Min but he was still allowed to go off at 4/1 on the day. The same might happen with Shishkin so I'm happy to bide my time.
Too many of Nicky's novice hurdlers have gone to the Supreme looking like world-beaters, but have flattered to deceive and have placed or fallen short at restrictive odds. He's had horses with this kind of profile pretty much every year for the last 25 years and only Altior has won. That one was already special on the clock, and he also had more experience including a couple of battles in his locker.
Backing the Shishkin's of this world at the Festival is a guaranteed way to the poor house. Better to take it on the chin if he does win than back him in my opinion. The only way I'd back him is if he drifted out to an each way price, or I already had an antepost ticket at big prices which is fair enough.
It can hardly be any clearer that Henderson has had one winner, Altior at 4/1, in 27 years Hawk Wing. In many of those years he's had a horse in the top three in the market, and often run two fancied horses. I don't know for a fact but I'll hazard a guess that he's had between 30 and 40 runners in the Supreme over that time.
It's nothing to do with a horse being odds on. It's to do with what the horse has achieved in relation to its price and market position, and then comparing it to how other horses have fared with a similar profile. History tells you a lightly raced Henderson horse that has pummeled horses in bang average races don't win this. Many have tried, all have failed.
I think I'll stick to my own 'out of whack' staking plan rather than yours thanks Hawk Wing, as I'm not sure how you make those kind of statistics pay!! :blink:
All that said, Shishkin will probably go on to be a top class chaser, and if he's beaten in the Supreme I wouldn't discount backing him for next seasons Arkle. Henderson has history for his type of horse doing exactly that after being turned over in the Supreme.