Novice & Juvenile Hurdlers 2019/20

Envoi Allen straight to the Ballymore then and Abracadabras straight to the Supreme.

As an Ante Post ticket holder on Abracadabras I'm very happy about that.
 
Happy to take Shishkin on me. Will go off fav I’ve no doubt, De Boinville puts me off for one and I think they’re better horses
 
He looked good but - while I'm possibly talking through my ante post vouchers - how, after winning a listed race (albeit impressively) is he half the odds of G1 winner Abacadabras, who easily left subsequent ICH 2nd Darver Star behind in the Royal Bond.

A combination of Hendo optimism and recency bias.
 
I reckon Shishkin will end-up running in the wrong race (Supreme) at Cheltenham, and would love to take a price now, about him winning the JLT/Marsh Novice next season.

Looks all-over a chaser to me, but one that perhaps doesn’t quite have the tactical-speed, for G1s at two-miles.
 
Not sure what he did wrong. The complaints after Newbury were "what did he beat" "it was only a maiden", he beats graded class animals without turning a hair - I think he pulled nicely clear over the last two. It was the pure speed on the run in at Newbury that was really impressive. Not sure any of the novices could have topped that then. I think he will take a good deal of beating, with the softer the ground the better.
 
I saw one wag on Twitter describe Nico as “motionless” in the closing stages yesterday, which is completely misleading.

Shishkin was never in any danger, but was ridden right out - in much the same manner as he was at Newbury - and went further and further clear. That’s not demonstrating 2m speed, imo, it’s demonstrating stamina, and in a Supreme Novices, I’d be concerned that the real speedsters might get away from him, before he has a chance to get up to full tilt.
 
One could argue that you need stamina to win a Supreme.

It's a kind of quirk re the Cheltenham novices that Ballymore winners can end up Champion Hurdle horses while Supreme winners can end up as stayers.
 
Grasshopper said:
I saw one wag on Twitter describe Nico as “motionless” in the closing stages yesterday, which is completely misleading.

Shishkin was never in any danger, but was ridden right out - in much the same manner as he was at Newbury - and went further and further clear. That’s not demonstrating 2m speed, imo, it’s demonstrating stamina, and in a Supreme Novices, I’d be concerned that the real speedsters might get away from him, before he has a chance to get up to full tilt.
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probably just means he needs to be asked the question and ridden to produce speed. a horse powering on with the jockey motionless doesn't make them quicker than horses that need to be asked first. altior a fine example of the latter.

the way shishkin finished off the race yesterday shows he'd probably be fine in the ballymore but the keen going nature he's shown in his last 2 races might mean supreme is the better option. i can see both sides.
 
Yesterday Shishkin won easily from a 139 horse who might be some way better than that. The third didn't have an OR and was the 33/1 rag so could arguably pull the form down. The fourth was rated 143 but was only fourth favourite and the only other runner was the 141 third-fav whose measure had been taken two out when he fell. The winner also recorded his highest Topspeed rating. I'm not a fan of Topspeed but at least the figure suggests the race wasn't falsely run.

Via the runner-up, Shishkin is 150+p

Even a notional five lengths in hand would rank him alongside many previous supreme winners and he's likely to improve again by mid-March as the trainer will almost certainly have had him short of his peak.

I think it will take an exceptional performance to beat him.

Edit:

Would I back him right now?

No. This isn't like Altior who was an absolute cert on my figures and who was 8/1 on 05 January. I took out some heavy insurance at 11/4 w/o Min but he was still allowed to go off at 4/1 on the day. The same might happen with Shishkin so I'm happy to bide my time.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I saw one wag on Twitter describe Nico as “motionless” in the closing stages yesterday, which is completely misleading.

Shishkin was never in any danger, but was ridden right out - in much the same manner as he was at Newbury - and went further and further clear. That’s not demonstrating 2m speed, imo, it’s demonstrating stamina, and in a Supreme Novices, I’d be concerned that the real speedsters might get away from him, before he has a chance to get up to full tilt.
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In no way was he ridden right out. He was asked to go and win his race and he did. It was clear that he was in no danger and left to coast home. Motionless is wrong but arent we all a bit old to be getting upset about wags on twitter. He was asked to hit top gear at Newbury and did so in the last 100 yards. Maybe surprised de Boinville in doing so, Maybe not. Again, I dont think any novice could have lived with that speed.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yesterday Shishkin won easily from a 139 horse who might be some way better than that. The third didn't have an OR and was the 33/1 rag so could arguably pull the form down. The fourth was rated 143 but was only fourth favourite and the only other runner was the 141 third-fav whose measure had been taken two out when he fell. The winner also recorded his highest Topspeed rating. I'm not a fan of Topspeed but at least the figure suggests the race wasn't falsely run.

Via the runner-up, Shishkin is 150+p

Even a notional five lengths in hand would rank him alongside many previous supreme winners and he's likely to improve again by mid-March as the trainer will almost certainly have had him short of his peak.

I think it will take an exceptional performance to beat him.

Edit:

Would I back him right now?

No. This isn't like Altior who was an absolute cert on my figures and who was 8/1 on 05 January. I took out some heavy insurance at 11/4 w/o Min but he was still allowed to go off at 4/1 on the day. The same might happen with Shishkin so I'm happy to bide my time.
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The same could be said for Asterion Forlonge DO. He easily beat 146 rated horse 9 1/2 L in a grade 1 race. The 2nd 3rd & 4th running almost to within a pound of their ratings. You could say Asterion Forlonge is a 156+p.
 
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I'm against him too. Not because I don't think he can win, but because he's terrible value for a horse with no experience. Two completed runs over hurdles against clearly inferior horses isn't an ideal prep. I think he'll place and something will out-battle him.

Too many of Nicky's novice hurdlers have gone to the Supreme looking like world-beaters, but have flattered to deceive and have placed or fallen short at restrictive odds. He's had horses with this kind of profile pretty much every year for the last 25 years and only Altior has won. That one was already special on the clock, and he also had more experience including a couple of battles in his locker.

Backing the Shishkin's of this world at the Festival is a guaranteed way to the poor house. Better to take it on the chin if he does win than back him in my opinion. The only way I'd back him is if he drifted out to an each way price, or I already had an antepost ticket at big prices which is fair enough.
 
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Maruco said:
Too many of Nicky's novice hurdlers have gone to the Supreme looking like world-beaters, but have flattered to deceive and have placed or fallen short at restrictive odds. He's had horses with this kind of profile pretty much every year for the last 25 years and only Altior has won. That one was already special on the clock, and he also had more experience including a couple of battles in his locker.

Backing the Shishkin's of this world at the Festival is a guaranteed way to the poor house. Better to take it on the chin if he does win than back him in my opinion. The only way I'd back him is if he drifted out to an each way price, or I already had an antepost ticket at big prices which is fair enough.
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People are getting very carried away in their opposition to this horse. The type of discussion on here has the tone of him being odds on at the festival. 3/1 freely available. Your staking plan is way out of wack if backing shiskin's at the festival ends you in the poor house.

Henderson has had two favourites that I can remember that were both beaten - My Tent or Yours and Amaretto Rose. Sprinter Sacre was 12/1 (IIRC). Not sure what hyped world beaters you are referring to.
 
None that were favourite spring to mind but Angels Breath was fairly well hyped and disappointed


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It can hardly be any clearer that Henderson has had one winner, Altior at 4/1, in 27 years Hawk Wing. In many of those years he's had a horse in the top three in the market, and often run two fancied horses. I don't know for a fact but I'll hazard a guess that he's had between 30 and 40 runners in the Supreme over that time.

It's nothing to do with a horse being odds on. It's to do with what the horse has achieved in relation to its price and market position, and then comparing it to how other horses have fared with a similar profile. History tells you a lightly raced Henderson horse that has pummeled horses in bang average races don't win this. Many have tried, all have failed.

I think I'll stick to my own 'out of whack' staking plan rather than yours thanks Hawk Wing, as I'm not sure how you make those kind of statistics pay!! :blink:

All that said, Shishkin will probably go on to be a top class chaser, and if he's beaten in the Supreme I wouldn't discount backing him for next seasons Arkle. Henderson has history for his type of horse doing exactly that after being turned over in the Supreme.
 
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Maruco said:
It can hardly be any clearer that Henderson has had one winner, Altior at 4/1, in 27 years Hawk Wing. In many of those years he's had a horse in the top three in the market, and often run two fancied horses. I don't know for a fact but I'll hazard a guess that he's had between 30 and 40 runners in the Supreme over that time.

It's nothing to do with a horse being odds on. It's to do with what the horse has achieved in relation to its price and market position, and then comparing it to how other horses have fared with a similar profile. History tells you a lightly raced Henderson horse that has pummeled horses in bang average races don't win this. Many have tried, all have failed.

I think I'll stick to my own 'out of whack' staking plan rather than yours thanks Hawk Wing, as I'm not sure how you make those kind of statistics pay!! :blink:

All that said, Shishkin will probably go on to be a top class chaser, and if he's beaten in the Supreme I wouldn't discount backing him for next seasons Arkle. Henderson has history for his type of horse doing exactly that after being turned over in the Supreme.
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My, aren't we defensive. So much nonsense in making an argument. But keep doubling down.
 
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