I had a tickle at 30.0 just before the publication of the Labour manifesto that the next government will be a LAB/SNP coalition. Should this speculative bet come in I'm concerned it wouldn't be honoured anyway, as Sturgeon has stated she would consider a 'confidence and supply agreement' akin to the DUP/CON arrangement but not a formal coalition. At least it's currently trading at 20.0 so I got some putative 'value'...
Oooopppss!!
- Thread starter gigilo
- Start date
Indeed, though to be strictly correct 'value' isn't a new word I've discovered; rather, one I've used far too much but still struggle to comprehend. Mark Coton and the other village's Gingertipster have been kind enough to offer their help in unravelling this gordion knot of a problem but as a result, sadly, one was put out to pasture at the Punters' Funny Farm years ago and the other looks value at 21/20 48.8% 2.05 105 to be committed there shortly. I remain relatively sane but I think the straitjacket was averted only by the wise move to cease value hunting amongst the now too well satiated horse players by throwing the occasional pebble into the ocean of lemmings fed a high-fat low-nutrient banquet of worthless information, with the notable exception of some correspondents here on TalkingPolitics
There's been an intriguing and welcome reemergence of a worthwhile correspondent on TRF, now reincarnated. I look forward to reading her missives, though it has to be said that thus far the metamorphosis has just resulted in a gross over-reliance on the exclamation mark
Always enjoy reading your thoughts Wolfman and glad that they still carry the eldritch, malefic undertone that's long been your hallmark
Howzat!!!
There's been an intriguing and welcome reemergence of a worthwhile correspondent on TRF, now reincarnated. I look forward to reading her missives, though it has to be said that thus far the metamorphosis has just resulted in a gross over-reliance on the exclamation mark
Always enjoy reading your thoughts Wolfman and glad that they still carry the eldritch, malefic undertone that's long been your hallmark
Howzat!!!
walsworth
Journeyman
Nicola Sturgeon, I think!
Oh Crikey, I'd missed this, but then I probably spend more time watching America at the moment. I mean we're small potatoes compared to what's going on over there. They're a whole different league of insanity and theatre
Anyway, my take on the polls
So far as I can see the commentators in this country seem to be missing something rather obvious, namely that Boris Johnson is on the same mark as Theresa May according to the generic polling. This needn't be that surprising when we're dealing with polarity as not many people migrate between the two camps
The swing from 2017 to the current day is from Labour to the Liberals
This begs one fundamental question. Where?
If this swing is generic, then the Tories win by about 50 seats. If however its regional, and the product of Labour's voters in the south east and south west abandoning the party in favour of a more likely challenger, then the government might have a problem. This whole thing could be a lot closer than people realise
It's going to come down to what I'll call the 'crap towns' of the Midlands and Yorkshire, but before I expand on that it might be worth looking at where the conservatives are vulnerable
I'm struggling to think they'll hold their Scottish seats. If Nicola Sturgeon hadn't been so obsessed with pushing the IndyRef2 in 2017 (against her party's advice) they wouldn't have won them then. Since 2017 of course they've also lost Ruth Davidson who I'm sure played a big part in their revival. So that's 12/13 seats they'll be losing. Where else might they lose? This gets harder to find but I'll run through a few candidates that spring to my mind, specific ones and general ones
Will they lose seats on the Fylde Coast? OK, Boris did call Quadrilla off 24 hours after calling the election but the voters there have spent 3 or 4 years opposing fracking. That sort of conditions you somewhat and gives you a different mindset and perspective. Do they trust Boris not to restart? Might the years of protests and public meetings etc begin to erode their faith in the Tories?
Might Labour gain Swindon now that Honda have demonstrated that Brexit has consequences?
Anna Soubry is standing independent in Broxtowe. She only had an 800 majority at the last election anyway. The Liberals aren't contesting Broxtowe, so there's 2000 votes there to go somewhere. The Tories (in their infinite wisdom) have bought an outsider in for the seat too who is an ethnic minority. I'm struggling to think this is going to help persuade the Brexit brigade and some of the outer east Nottingham estates like Strelley and those more working class districts to the north around Kimberley. Anna will still have some loyalists within the constituency who won't support the transplanted candidate too. Indeed, I was speaking to Broxtowe Tories the other day and they divided 3 conservative and 1 for Anna. If that pattern repeats, Labour wins easily
Hastings is another one. Amber Rudd was treated quite shabbily by Boris Johnson. She's bound to have constituency workers and activists who will be sympathetic to her plight who might be prepared to abstain now on an even smaller majority, and it transpires that the current replacement candidate is under investigation for anti Semitism
This is just half a dozen seats I can think off. There's probably half a dozen more where the party has a fruitbat of a local candidate who is going off message and a badly organised local party that's failing to manage the situation. We don't necessarily know where these are because they don't often hit national news, but they have a habit of working their way into the local media. I'd imagine there's a dozen such seats in total
Now in more general terms I'm struggling to see where Labour will gain seats from the Tories. They should pick up between 2 and 5 in London, but I think they're pretty close to 'peak London' at the moment, so I'd have said that will be on the lower side. They might get 1 or 2 in Wales, and possibly 1 in Southampton
The big question for me is what percentage of the 8% of Labour support that has disappeared since 2017 has gone to the Liberals in the South West and the suburban commuter towns of the South East? If this is regional support that never converted into Labour seats anyway, then it's not going to damage them in terms of seat count. If it transfers to the Liberals though, then the Tories could lose 3 seats in the South West, 1 in London, and 1 in the South East
We've seen tactical voting in by-elections plenty of times. We've occasionally seen it in a constituency when it's been well publicised and organised (Bath in 1992 when Chris Patten lost comes to mind). We've never seen it operating across the country before, but in these days of internet and social media, the public has never had a better platform to push it. If the vote divides along Brexit lines then the Tories have a problem. They're currently losing that particular roll up 53/47. That four Brexit party MEP's left last week to campaign for the Tories tells me that there's an issue. All four cited the Brexit party as damaging the prospects of achieving Brexit. These four turncoats will have access to internal party polling by constituency and you have to interpret their move to indicate that the Tories aren't getting Labour supporters to vote for them, but getting them to vote for Farage instead
This brings me to the crap towns which is where the Tories have their best chance. They didn't pick up many seats in 2017 outside of Scotland, but there was a band across the north Midlands where they gained five IIRC. I think that can probably be widened now to include North Wales (Wrexham) Ashfield, Bolsover, Bassetlaw, Grimsby and some of the crap towns they've got in South Yorkshire too. I think they Tories already hold most of the crap towns they've got in the west midlands, but I expect them to make further gains there as well
It all depends on how the vote is distributed
I'm thinking back a little bit to how the SDP/ Liberal Alliance used to eat up the Labour party across the whole country. They used to poll in the low 20's, yet only ever got 24 seats at their peak in 1983 and 22 in 1987. Their support was widespread but sprinkled. When their support became more concentrated, more regionally, and the result of eating into Labour again, they got 52 seats under Charles Kennedy with a 6% lower vote share than they had in the 1980's under the Alliance. (They got 62 under Clegg in 2010 with the same sort of vote share as they got under David Steele/Owen)
My own read is that the conservatives win by about 25, but its really difficult to call. If we see widespread and wholesale tactical voting though then the so-called 'progressive alliance' have the votes to form a coalition government
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Interesting analysis Alun. Instinctively this is much closer than the polls would have us believe, and I think you're right in terms of how Brexit may swing seats away from the Conservatives.
I do think though that Corbyn has pretty much rendered himself unelectable, and the big winners in this will be the Libs. Just how many gains is hard to predict, but again the feeling I have is it'll be in much larger numbers than we've seen that when they peaked. The question is how much they'll split the vote by, and from who. You cite Swindon for example. Are the Libs not more likely there than Labour to knock off the Conservative candidate? I genuinely see Labour as being the biggest losers in this election, and all the surprises will be Liberal gains.
Is there a set of circumstances where you can see a hung parliament and a Lib led Coalition?
I do think though that Corbyn has pretty much rendered himself unelectable, and the big winners in this will be the Libs. Just how many gains is hard to predict, but again the feeling I have is it'll be in much larger numbers than we've seen that when they peaked. The question is how much they'll split the vote by, and from who. You cite Swindon for example. Are the Libs not more likely there than Labour to knock off the Conservative candidate? I genuinely see Labour as being the biggest losers in this election, and all the surprises will be Liberal gains.
Is there a set of circumstances where you can see a hung parliament and a Lib led Coalition?
No.
Swindon South is the seat that's marginal. The conservatives majority is 2,500 to Labour. The Liberals aren't a factor in Swindon. People forget its a light industrial town (railways before Honda). Labour has a tradition there. Swindon behaves much more like the light industrial towns of the East Midlands. They trend conservative but can go Labour under certain circumstances (places like Loughborough). The Liberals aren't a factor. The question really is whether Honda has delivered a punch on the nose to the Brexiteers?
I'm not sure I can see a Liberal led coalition under Jo Swinson. She's pretty poor. Her only claim to high office appears to be that she escaped the cull of 2015 and was somehow left standing.
I'd have thought it more likely that they could engineer the removal of Corbyn and his replacement with someone who might acceptable. If I were looking for a seriously long shot price on someone, then I might tempted for a few shekels on Ed Miliband at about 500/1, but obviously you need a coalition first, then you need the SNP and Liberals to refuse to work with Corbyn and make his resignation conditional (that won't be easy) and even then you've got to find the replacement who'd be acceptable. I suspect history is being a little bit kinder to Miliband, who warned us the high risk dangers that the recklessly cavalier Cameron was running. He's a full degree to the right of Corbyn, but still not a Blairite, so could occupy that Goldilocks zone. He has some ministerial experience (admittedly only at the Environment) but I'd have thought he was acceptable
The reason I mention a Lib led coalition is because I'm too often hearing the noise that people can't vote for either of the two main parties and they're going to default to the Libs. I'm hearing it from all ages as well. My kids range from 35 to 24 and they are all independently saying it, and alsosaying a large number of their friends are saying the same thing. Interestingly they are all leavers and are making this decision irrespective. I also have a number of friends of a similar age to me saying the same and they are were split between stay and remain. Throw remain in to that mix with the Libs firmly on that bandwagon and I think we could see a bit of a shock come Thursday night / Friday morning with the Libs polling exceptionally well.
The feeling is that people neither trust Johnson or Corbyn to the extent that they find it impossible to vote for either, and the lack of noise around Swinson is doing her a favour despite the fact that she's pretty useless. She's picking up the remain vote but strangely she's also picking up leavers. The Tories will have their vote split further by the Brexit Party, and Labour will just lose seats because of Corbyn. Given it's going to be an election dominated by Brexit and personality politics, and policy and spending seem to be largely irrelevant, the Libs are likely to do very well. The question is to what extent.
I think no overall majority is the most likely outcome. And given Brexit divides are in the mix it may be difficult for anyone to form a Government.
The feeling is that people neither trust Johnson or Corbyn to the extent that they find it impossible to vote for either, and the lack of noise around Swinson is doing her a favour despite the fact that she's pretty useless. She's picking up the remain vote but strangely she's also picking up leavers. The Tories will have their vote split further by the Brexit Party, and Labour will just lose seats because of Corbyn. Given it's going to be an election dominated by Brexit and personality politics, and policy and spending seem to be largely irrelevant, the Libs are likely to do very well. The question is to what extent.
I think no overall majority is the most likely outcome. And given Brexit divides are in the mix it may be difficult for anyone to form a Government.
Liberal support traditionally used to come in the last week as undecideds had to get off the fence
I have two fears for the Liberals though
1: There are areas where they really aren't a factor (Yorkshire & Humbs, North East, West Midlands, and East Midlands). This needn't be a disadvantage though. Our FPTP system discriminates in favour of local clusters rather than national vote share. It's how the SNP can end up with 8% of seats on 3% of the vote. If the Liberals can pick up in the south west, and the commuter towns of the south east, then they can become a factor. They needn't be out of luck in Lancashire either taking Tory votes
2: I think the bigger concern though is that they just don't have the depth of close majority marginals to work with. They're very often finding themselves needing to over turn 10% before they start making progress. They can't do that on the Labour vote alone. If they do, we end up with a result like we saw in the 1980's when the SDP drew support off Labour and the Tory vote held up
Just by way of one fly in the ointment, and that's Nigel Farage. He's already announced that Brexit will become the 'Reform Party' after the election and he's been much more vocal in his criticism of Johnson in the last 48 hrs, and the Tories are increasing venting against Farage too. They need to be careful. There's still the spectre of UKIP kicking around in Tory seats. It only take Farage to advocate a spoiler for UKIP (can't see it myself - but if they continue to blame and criticise him - who knows). Farage has a cult following like Trump. He could easily stick 2% on UKIP in Tory held marginals for the hard core no dealer leavers
I have two fears for the Liberals though
1: There are areas where they really aren't a factor (Yorkshire & Humbs, North East, West Midlands, and East Midlands). This needn't be a disadvantage though. Our FPTP system discriminates in favour of local clusters rather than national vote share. It's how the SNP can end up with 8% of seats on 3% of the vote. If the Liberals can pick up in the south west, and the commuter towns of the south east, then they can become a factor. They needn't be out of luck in Lancashire either taking Tory votes
2: I think the bigger concern though is that they just don't have the depth of close majority marginals to work with. They're very often finding themselves needing to over turn 10% before they start making progress. They can't do that on the Labour vote alone. If they do, we end up with a result like we saw in the 1980's when the SDP drew support off Labour and the Tory vote held up
Just by way of one fly in the ointment, and that's Nigel Farage. He's already announced that Brexit will become the 'Reform Party' after the election and he's been much more vocal in his criticism of Johnson in the last 48 hrs, and the Tories are increasing venting against Farage too. They need to be careful. There's still the spectre of UKIP kicking around in Tory seats. It only take Farage to advocate a spoiler for UKIP (can't see it myself - but if they continue to blame and criticise him - who knows). Farage has a cult following like Trump. He could easily stick 2% on UKIP in Tory held marginals for the hard core no dealer leavers
The exit polls are forecasting a walkover for BJ.
Seems that most forecasters have massively underestimated the degree of averision to the Labour and Liberal party leaders, which will see the Tories home comfortably, and also may have had some bearing on the strong SNP showing.
Leastways, it puts the UK in a stronger position for negotiating Brexit, and Boris is worldly enough to appreciate that 'no deal' is not an option for either side.
Seems that most forecasters have massively underestimated the degree of averision to the Labour and Liberal party leaders, which will see the Tories home comfortably, and also may have had some bearing on the strong SNP showing.
Leastways, it puts the UK in a stronger position for negotiating Brexit, and Boris is worldly enough to appreciate that 'no deal' is not an option for either side.
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simmo
Senior Jockey
I'm shaking my head in dismay at yet another decision for Scotland being made by the English.
The sooner we are rid of the shackles of their poor decision making the better.
The sooner we are rid of the shackles of their poor decision making the better.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,034
The worst possible scenario:
BJ in power and the prospect of Ruth Davidson skinny-dipping in Loch Ness... :blink:
BJ in power and the prospect of Ruth Davidson skinny-dipping in Loch Ness... :blink:
simmo
Senior Jockey
I occasionally have Twitter DM exchanges with a fairly high profile American on political and they always assure me its about 'match ups'. There might very well be a bit of that going on.
Theresa May was a turgid grey lady. She was decent match up for Corbyn, who would himself be a good match up for anyone
The other thing I'd add is that relatable slogans that capture the zeitgeist of the day are very important. People don't read manifestos but they do 'get' a slogan. I was aware that 'Get Brexit Done' was landing on the runway, whilst 'For the Many' had fallen short and ended up in a neighbouring field. It's why 'Make America Great Again' worked as opposed to 'Make America Whole' or "I'm with Her". What would you rather be, Great or Whole?
One of the best ones of course was Tony Blair's "Things Can Only Get Better", that was fairly unique in so far as it was tacitly saying things are **** at the moment without necessarily sounding negative as it clearly suggests that there was a way of out of it. Again, people recognised it and it captured the zeitgeist of the time
simmo
Senior Jockey
Astounded by labour pundit on BBC Scotland saying that he thought winning 191 seats was a perfectly good result.
My take on it.
The irony of last night's result is...'working class' people, (they seem to be the buzz word at the minute), are poor because of the free market Thatcherite policies that have been prevelent in the U.K for decades.
All the key turning points in the U.K's history since the turn of the new millenium and the 21st century..(the Iraq War...the banking crisis...austerity...and more recently leaving the E.U)....well..they were all essentially centre-to-far-right political projects....
Therefore, it's as if the British electorate believe the Conservative Party...who were in favour of all the above....are the ones to get us out of it.
I think the mathmatics of the electorial outcome were harsh on Corbyn.
He deserved a better result, but so did Ed Milliband.
The irony of last night's result is...'working class' people, (they seem to be the buzz word at the minute), are poor because of the free market Thatcherite policies that have been prevelent in the U.K for decades.
All the key turning points in the U.K's history since the turn of the new millenium and the 21st century..(the Iraq War...the banking crisis...austerity...and more recently leaving the E.U)....well..they were all essentially centre-to-far-right political projects....
Therefore, it's as if the British electorate believe the Conservative Party...who were in favour of all the above....are the ones to get us out of it.
I think the mathmatics of the electorial outcome were harsh on Corbyn.
He deserved a better result, but so did Ed Milliband.
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great result for someone in the level of Corbyn
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
People don't trust Corbyn's economic vibe. Fair enough.
People also like to blame benefit cheats and immigrants for the country's woes - not the bankers and the hedge fund managers - always punch down not up (see famous John Cleese/Ronnie Barker/Corbett skit from the 60s. Sixty ******* years ago and still true now.
People also like to blame benefit cheats and immigrants for the country's woes - not the bankers and the hedge fund managers - always punch down not up (see famous John Cleese/Ronnie Barker/Corbett skit from the 60s. Sixty ******* years ago and still true now.
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40 of the SNP MP's dropped Independence from their election campaigns to attract voters from either side, and then Nicola Sturgeon has the brass neck to use the result to champion Independence, and use it as validation of what the Scottish electorate want. Then she attacks Downing Street for not giving it to her. Poor decision making all round with Sturgeon's own MP's taking away the credibility of her position to get themselves elected either with or without her consent.
Either way the fact that Brexit will now happen will leave Scottish Independence off the agenda for at least this political term. The work that follows it will be far more important than addressing a fallout from the split of the Union, and anyone who doesn't see that is only interested in their own personal agenda.
And for clarity, I don't give a flying **** if Scotland stays or goes, and I'm not saying this with an agenda.
archie
Senior Jockey
I don't know about Scotland but it's surely made a united Ireland more likely with Nationalist MPs outnumbering Unionists.
Possibly the best scenario left is that Johnson feels secure enough to ignore the ERG.
Possibly the best scenario left is that Johnson feels secure enough to ignore the ERG.
simmo
Senior Jockey
Sturgeon has been consistently vocal about indyref2. I can't speak for 40 MPs because I don't have that knowledge but I can say that my SNP candidate was clear that a vote for her was a vote for indyref2.
Even taking that out of the discussion entirely, it's clear that Scotland now has yet another government/ decision that they didn't vote for and it's time, IMO, that we got rid of the English making poor choices for us.
Even taking that out of the discussion entirely, it's clear that Scotland now has yet another government/ decision that they didn't vote for and it's time, IMO, that we got rid of the English making poor choices for us.
I tell you another thing that is killing the Labour vote...constant discussion about 'the left' or what part of the left people are from.
The truth of course is that parts of Tony Blairs New Labour government succeeded..parts failed...and the same is true with someone like Corbyn in opposition...parts of a socialist left could work well...parts fail.
The future for Labour should a broad church of 'the left' in its entirety.
It should happen naturally, that different voices can amalgamate to form another Labour government.
Both New Labour and Old Labour have their pros and cons....the media have lapped up tearing the Labour Party apart in terms of ideology.
Meanwhile Boris talks about one nation conservatism....
Tomorrow they'll be saying he has lurched to the right with a no deal brexit plan...
The ideology thing is doing Labour a lot more damage than it is the tories.
The next leader needs to address this big time.
The truth of course is that parts of Tony Blairs New Labour government succeeded..parts failed...and the same is true with someone like Corbyn in opposition...parts of a socialist left could work well...parts fail.
The future for Labour should a broad church of 'the left' in its entirety.
It should happen naturally, that different voices can amalgamate to form another Labour government.
Both New Labour and Old Labour have their pros and cons....the media have lapped up tearing the Labour Party apart in terms of ideology.
Meanwhile Boris talks about one nation conservatism....
Tomorrow they'll be saying he has lurched to the right with a no deal brexit plan...
The ideology thing is doing Labour a lot more damage than it is the tories.
The next leader needs to address this big time.
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Then the next Labour leader needs to edge out the 'Momentum' influence from its policy making.
They may need the finance from the Trades Unions, but kowtowing to the looney left will never wash with the current electorate.
Agree with you in the sense that Labour need to get their own house in order.
I am not an expert on Momentum but what I would say is that the toxicity between different Labour factions and the power struggle/vacuum left from it has in the eyes of the electorate made the party less credible.
This politics lark is clearly about winning. Labour has more chance of doing better the more it diversifies...(that means making it as broader church as possible with the broadest range of political characteristics and opinions).
This may sound a bit utopian...but I don't actually think a purest Blairite or Corbyn agenda works as well as an almagamation between the two.
I consider myself somewhere in between Ed Milliband and Corbyn. But I am also not a political fool...I know that a confused electorate is no good for Labour.
No matter what Labour ideology someone has..if the electorate are confused they will vote for someone else.
I am not an expert on Momentum but what I would say is that the toxicity between different Labour factions and the power struggle/vacuum left from it has in the eyes of the electorate made the party less credible.
This politics lark is clearly about winning. Labour has more chance of doing better the more it diversifies...(that means making it as broader church as possible with the broadest range of political characteristics and opinions).
This may sound a bit utopian...but I don't actually think a purest Blairite or Corbyn agenda works as well as an almagamation between the two.
I consider myself somewhere in between Ed Milliband and Corbyn. But I am also not a political fool...I know that a confused electorate is no good for Labour.
No matter what Labour ideology someone has..if the electorate are confused they will vote for someone else.
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