Overdose

Euronymous said:
Ron's Victory won the Diadem by 10 lengths.
Dayhur beat that animal by over 2L in the Kings Stand
He deserved his rating in the high 130s.
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what would Rons Victory be rated the day Dayjur beat him?

RV only ever won G3's..wasn't good enough to win higher..does that make beating him high 130's?

If RV is say a 125 horse..i would expect him to have been eating G2 races..so it seems more realistic to say RV is at most a 120 horse.
 
sunybay said:
pathetic
oh great , thats very polite and you
and the reasoning is he can not beat them because you say,

thats your opinion
I have been rated horses for a long time and the Rome performance is better than any of Dayjut or Black Caviar nce.
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Sunys opinions are usually logical -there is a good chance that Overdose is the fastest horse in Europe -even after an injury.
 
EC1 said:
If RV is say a 125 horse..i would expect him to have been eating G2 races..so it seems more realistic to say RV is at most a 120 horse.
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He won a Group 3 by 10 lengths. This distinction you seem to want to make between G2's and G3s doesn't exist in the real world.

A 120 animal doesn't win the Diadem that far. Fact.
 
Euronymous said:
Timeform rated him 129.
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but couldn't win each time he ran above G3 level?..which seems odd for a 129 rated horse..but that is TF rating..knock 6 off for for most other ratings

i do think there is a distinction between G3 and G2 and G1...same as there is between lower levels...taking that argument to the lower end...is like saying there isn't much difference between winning a seller and a class C

the 10 length win is impressive by Ron..but its like saying that because Hawk wing was rated 13x when he won at Newbury..that any horse that beat him is 13x + lengths
 
LUKE said:
Sunys opinions are usually logical -there is a good chance that Overdose is the fastest horse in Europe -even after an injury.
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I think Irish contributors have done similar to Grand Armee. She's defending an Australian horse rather than calling sunybay an idiot, which no one on this forum thinks.


.
 
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EC1 said:
but couldn't win each time he ran above G3 level?..which seems odd for a 129 rated horse..but that is TF rating..knock 6 off for for most other ratings
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He won a Group 3 by 10L. He was beaten 2 and a half in the King's Stand - which in effect was a Group 1. Your last comment is out of order.
 
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The Timeform one. They overrate the occasional horse, not every one. Ron's Victory would have won several Group 1's if he'd been last year.
 
OHR had Dancing Brave on 141. The six pound higher scale isn't set in stone and it certainly isn't accurate historically.
 
Euronymous said:
OHR had Dancing Brave on 141. The six pound higher scale isn't set in stone and it certainly isn't accurate historically.
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i'll bow to your superior knowledge

i'd like to see Suny's ratings for these sprinters anyway..and just a little bit how they were formed

would you post your thoughts Suny?
 
Euronymous said:
OHR had Dancing Brave on 141. The six pound higher scale isn't set in stone and it certainly isn't accurate historically.
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When the World Thoroughbred rankings were released in 2009, they admitted that their ratings from as recently as the mid-80's aren't directly comparable with those today. There is something in the Sea The Stars essay on the subject if you can't find anything about it on google.
 
davidjohnson said:
When the World Thoroughbred rankings were released in 2009, they admitted that their ratings from as recently as the mid-80's aren't directly comparable with those today. There is something in the Sea The Stars essay on the subject if you can't find anything about it on google.
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now you mention it..when DB was around the highest OHR was 100 wasn't it?...so where is the 141 OHR coming from
 
Thanks for the reminder. They admitted that the likes of Dancing Brave, Alleged and Shergar would not have achieved the ratings they did if they had raced these days. Timeform are of the opinion that these ratings have fallen by around 4lbs since the early 1990's at least.

In 1989 though the IC had Nashwan on as low as 131.
 
sunybay said:
pathetic
oh great , thats very polite and you
and the reasoning is he can not beat them because you say,

thats your opinion
I have been rated horses for a long time and the Rome performance is better than any of Dayjut or Black Caviar nce.
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I am sorry if I sounded so rude, but unfortunately, but my point is Black Caviar would not be beaten by Overdose.

Read the sectionals of Black Caviar, they are extraordinary. Especially from the TJ Smith Stakes when she came from 6 to 8 lengths on the bend, to home past another world class star in Hay List by 3 lengths. She should not have won that day.

Comparing a horse that wins a race in Rome, to a world champion, who has sectionals that are literally out of this world, is as I said ludicrous.

I am not defending her because she is Australian. To be perfectly honest she is not my favourite horse at all. Actually far from it, but I respect a champion. I am defending a horse that has 6 consecutive Group 1 races to her name, a horse that is UNDEFEATED in 13 starts, a horse that has numbers and sectionals which are phenomenal, a horse that is considered by many a judge world wide as the best to have raced at that distance all time, and the horse that is the highest rated sprinter of all time. That still remains to be seen, but if she wins in Hong Kong and beats another super star in Rocket Man, then yes she quite possibly will be.

Suny, it'd be no different in me saying that based on sectionals, and from his 1998 Cox Plate performance, Might And Power (who was one of the highest rated horses in the 90's) would easily beat Sea The Stars on common mutual territory. You and I both know how silly that is. There is no way Might And Power could or would beat Sea The Stars. He'd lead and see nothing but a nice rump and tail.
 
For whats it's worth I knew where you were coming from. Just a poorly worded post, I doubt anyone will hold it against you. I've done it myself a thousand times.
 
Gearoid said:
For whats it's worth I knew where you were coming from. Just a poorly worded post, I doubt anyone will hold it against you. I've done it myself a thousand times.
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That is ok. :)

All I am trying to do is prove the point you CANNOT rate a horse who won a Group 3 race on a Heavy track in the middle of Rome, against Listed to Group 3 quality type (at their best) horses from Italy. Yes some of the horses went on and won and placed, at Listed and Group 3 level. Only ONE horse went on and placed in a Group 2 race, the runner up Black Mambazo.

I would take his performance into more consideration and give it far more merit if the opposition had of run in Group 1 and 2 races.

It was a great performance on that day by Overdose, it cannot be denied. But lets all be real here, the stats do not weigh up at all against the calibre and quality he met that day in Rome compared to what a horse like Black Caviar has been meeting for the past 7 months. A horse that finished 3rd to Starspangledbanner in the July Cup, only 1.1 lengths behind him, was over 7 lengths to Black Caviar in the TJ Smith Stakes. Ortensia a Group 2 (at her absolute best) standard type who finished within 1.8 lengths to JJ The Jet Plane, Rocket Man and a length behind Sacred Kingdom in the Hong Kong Sprint in 2010, has not finished within 6.7 lengths of Black Caviar.

The same would also go for Rocket Man. If Overdose's performance in Rome is considered superior to a horse that is winning the number of races and what he is beating in Singapore and Dubai at Group 1 level, then pigs will fly high in the bright blue sky.:rolleyes:
 
Overdose in Rome
I dont mind what race it i sor where is run, what I rate is the form of the race.

First of all, the performance is so amazing that I can understand some people tend not to believe it.

6f heavy ground, the time is especially good for the heavy ground.

The winner run in the inside , some people can argue the ground vias, but with a big field and plenty of experienced riders of the course, they thought the place to be was more in the middle side.


About the form
Overdose had been dominating many good races in the season and that was the reason for him giving weight to the older horses. In that date a 3yo timeform has a 3yo with a pound to receive with the older horses in that distance.

My rating for the performance is 143+
Using 2.82pounds per length and giving 5 pounds for the ease of the victory, the figure is very conservative with all the field not running their top rating( what is unlikely for a race of this kind)
I had given him 3 figures in the 3 german races he had won, posting 122+. 115+, 124+, beating good fields and posting good times in impressive style.

Then the Prix Abbaye in Longchamp, that day beating 2 horses by a wider margin and in a faster time , on possibly slower ground than Marchand Dor.

About the Rome nce, the beaten horses:
Black Mambazo (102) on the day after running a 103 in Longchamp in the Abbaye, on his next run he runs a 103 in Dubai in a handicap. In mMay posted another 102 in rome and afterwards he run a good race to be beaten b y Taxk Free posting a 117, he won a race in between this and the Abbaye where he was beaten by 1l ¾ by Total Gallery posting a 115.

Titus Shadow,(106) on the day, gr3 winner and listed winner since then.
Gesture, (104), very consistent since in this region of figures.
Lindiscreta (90), gr3 winner in his next start beating Leaps Arrow. Something like 106 for that.
Reykon (86), listed winner since.
Polar Wind, listed winner and posting much higher RPR after and before this.
Docksil, listed winner in the precious one beating BM.

And I can continue with the rest of beaten horses.

You don’t win gr3 in Italy or in Germany with horse worse than 104, as you has seen with Worthadd, they are not so bad, what Overdose did to this field is something that has to be seen to be believe, on visual seeing in the youtube video, the winning distance could be even bigger than 10l and the horse eased a little bit in the post,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nE9qbUwO2o


The performance this year, impossible to rate but my feeling is a 130++.
 
No one can be conclusive about these cross border, cross generation comparisons. Its absurd. I am pretty sure that Dayjur is the best sprinter ive seen but cannot be certain

Such a waste of time.

Really hope Overdose wins today. would be nice if some took their nhs glasses and unwashed anoraks off for once and appreciated that this is a very good story
 
I dont say he will do something like that again.
In fact after an injury and so many problems, he is unlikely but still can post some very good runs.


He has a bad pedigree and small connections but that doesnt stop him to be a great horse, for me he was a freak and he is a big bet for me at 9/4
 
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