Not seen anyone do one of these for a while but this is my view of the race:-
Looking at the card I’d say the race should be one by one of 6 with 2 others likely to be in the frame or thereabouts,
John’s Spirit and Oscar Whisky (if he jumps round), must be involved but you’d have to think they would be beaten by a better handicapped horse. That said Oscar Whisky has got a very similar profile to Al Ferof.
The 6 I reckon it’s between are:-
Present View
Buywise
Caid du Berlais
Persian Snow
Indian Castle
Ericht
I could discount Easter Meteor and Attaglance but I reckon they are more exposed than the others. At least I’ve managed to discount 9 runners from the field!!!
I’ll leave out Easter Meteor and Attaglance for the reasons I said. But I wouldn’t be confident that one of them won’t come back and bite me in the arse. Particlalrly now Easter Meteor has switched to Pipe and his profile isn’t dissimilar to Great Endeavour, and Attaglance is progressive and loves Cheltenham.
Of the six that I’ve shotlisted, Present View has a nice profile for the race and his spin over hurdles shows he’s still improving so he deserves to be favourite, but given the profile of the race he’s too short, particularly when Buywise is 2 points bigger and looks as though he’ll appreciate the softer ground more. The downside with Buywise is that terrible mistake he made at the Festival, and other jumping mistakes in his profile. But if he put in a clean round he ought to be the better handicapped of the two. Another big positive is his profile is remarkably similar to Tranquil Sea’s in a race that has a very similar look to it the year Tranquil Sea won.
Caid du Berlais is interesting. He too has a sketchy profile, but I’d be prepared to ignore his run in the Galway Plate given he’d been on the go for so long, and ironically I’d see that as a bonus for this race because he’s likely to be fitter than most Nicholls horses have been first time out. He also has an excellent record at Cheltenham.
Persian Snow is interesting because his form ties in with a lot of these, and on strict reading he’s got a mark that puts him right in the mix. Add to that Hobbs’ horses are flying, and he’s done well with similar types in this race. For me he doesn’t look classy enough though, and whilst I wouldn’t discount him placing, if he won it you’d have to mark the race down as a poor renewal.
Indian Castle has moved to Ian Williams from McCain in the same ownership (owner already has horses with both trainers). I’m not sure why he’s moved but Ian Williams must be happy because his profile is ideal for this race. He’s totally unexposed, but had beaten or run the right horses close in his novice season. The only blot was when he was stepped up in trip to 3 miles, but everything else would suggest two and half at a stiff track is perfect which includes that all important course and distance win back at the January meeting. Plus with all the rain around he handles everything from good to soft through to heavy.
Ericht is definitely interesting. Geraghty has opted for Oscar Whisky and it’s easy to understand why. You could argue OW has the better chance but I’d argue Geraghty wouldn’t want to be seen jumping off a horse that will go for some big prizes this season with Dai Walters being one of those owners you don't f*ck around if you want to keep the ride on him and his other good horses. So back to Ericht. The downside is he’s got Tinkler on board who is a jockey I’m not keen on, and also his profile would suggest he wouldn’t want too much more rain. The positives are he looks on a really nice mark, and his profile fits nicely with that of previous winners. If he has got in here as unexposed horse he’ll have to be good enough to compensate for Tinkler though.
Conclusion
I like Buywise if he jumps. I’m not keen on the price, but this race is more often won by something at single figure prices so I will probably back him. Indian Castle and Caid du Berlais are the two I think provide the best value against the favourite, but I’m also mindful that Ericht does look unexposed, and you’d have to think Johns Spitit, Oscar Whisky, Present View and perhaps Attaglance will be somewhere near at the finish.
My (not too confident) first four are:-
1[SUP]st[/SUP]. Buywise
2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Indian Castle
3[SUP]rd[/SUP] Caid du Berlais
4[SUP]th[/SUP] Oscar Whisky
