Paddy Power Gold Cup 15th Nov

My shortlist for the race.

Present View
Persian Snow
Indian Castle
Oscar Whisky

Will probably live to regret leaving buywise out, but his jumping is too much of a negative in my mind. I also think that after today's warm sun and more sun forecast tomorrow the ground won't be as testing as I thought.
 
I'm not sure that Persian snow could reverse form with present view. I agree that buywises jumping is too much of an issue for me. Can't really back jonjos at the moment too. Never been convinced about Oscar whiskey over fences
 
Double Handful said:
The going was already changed to 'soft, good to soft in places (from good to soft)' overnight after 7mm of Rain.
I would expect the combined overnight rain and the extra 3mm this morning would be enough to upset a few DO...
Like Digger suggested, it'll take plenty of getting imo.
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Very informative remark from BJG after winning on PG: if the horse goes through it it feels like soft, if they struggle with it it feels like heavy.

Gee thanks, Bazza.
 
clivex said:
I'm not sure that Persian snow could reverse form with present view. I agree that buywises jumping is too much of an issue for me. Can't really back jonjos at the moment too. Never been convinced about Oscar whiskey over fences
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Agree Persian Snow has it all to do to reverse form with Present View but I think he's got a chance especially given the form Hobbs and Dickie Johnson are in at the moment.
 
My short list:

1. Oscar Whisky
2. Caid Du Berlais
3. Johns Spirit

Best of the rest: Shanpallas

Best outsider: Orpheus Valley
 
viking said:
Agree Persian Snow has it all to do to reverse form with Present View but I think he's got a chance especially given the form Hobbs and Dickie Johnson are in at the moment.
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Yes. That's my concern. But what a good trainer he is. Keeps bringing them back and getting the best of even the quirkiest of characters. To me thats always the key. you can have the material but its the mileage you get out of them that sets Some apart. He's always played it down but I think he's a master of his trade.
 
If he'd been 20s maybe, but the Nicholls factor halved his odds.

Really good race though, one to study a number of times.
 
He was around that last week.
It wasn't the normal route to a PP, but he has some very good form.
 
Euronymous said:
If he'd been 20s maybe, but the Nicholls factor halved his odds.

Really good race though, one to study a number of times.
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I didn't get 10's, I got 14.5

the winner was 3rd best on my bare ratings before i even started delving into more detail, so imo was never a 20/1 shot just on that basis

your value and mine, and anyone else's is of only use to the individual, my value told me it was between him and other one i put up...so its impossible for him to have been a 20's shot..in my opinion..i don't make my value using your judgement.

value doesn't exist in a general form..thats where you and a lot of others make the mistake imo..its not set in stone...its my value..or yours...in mine it were a cracking bet...in yours you missed the bit that made it so..so assume its bad value..thats a mistake imo..you missed a bit and made a bad judgement about its real chance..imo

i'm happy anyway
 
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EC1 said:
value doesn't exist in a general form..thats where you and a lot of others make the mistake imo..its not set in stone...its my value..or yours...in mine it were a cracking bet...in yours you missed the bit that made it so..so assume its bad value..thats a mistake imo..you missed a bit and made a bad judgement about its real chance..imo

i'm happy anyway
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Fair enough, I didn't have a bet so have no axe to grind.
 
Tout Seul said:
The meeting this weekend is one I try to get to every year.The racing is usually competitive and often informative. I saw a stat in the week's Weekender that revealed that it is rare for the Open meeting winners to win at the Festival. Surprised me but they're right. This is a meeting to try and spot potential as Festival winners are unlikely to be fully fighting fit now especially if the ground conditions have change recently, as this year. Al Ferof, one of my favorites, won well here but was knackered for the season as a result. It is a big risk putting top class horses into competitive handicaps in testing ground at Cheltenham.
The top stars will go the the Hennessy where course is less demanding and prize money/prestige is higher.

I'd venture that this is a very competitive renewal although finishing distances might not indicate so. There is potential and also proven form although not of the very top quality, throw in ground conditions both on the course and on the training gallops, allof which create a difficult puzzle to resolve. FWIW I've taken 20's ew on Caid du Berlais, I would not have backed the horse at 10's.
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"The Nicholls Factor", surely you don't mean his comment on Timeform via Betfair today-
'4:30, Cheltenham
Caid Du Berlais
Even though he can handle testing conditions, he is a much better horse on better ground, so yesterday's rain was not great news for him. If conditions were better I'd fancy him to run well, as I think the trip will suit - he didn't last home over 2m6f in the Galway Plate - and he always goes well here. And I think a chase mark of 143, 8lb lower than over hurdles, is workable. But, like I said, soft ground isn't ideal. He is very well though, I'll say that, and he also runs in a tongue-tie for the first time.
I laid off £800 of potential winnings based on the above,
 
Mike Cattermole had some nightmare as a commentator -years ago I would press the mute button when shouty was commentating -will need to start doing the same again with Cattermole.He needs to lose his seat on the gravy train.
 
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