Paddy Power Gold Cup

The more I look at this race the more I cannot see past Long Run. He is a multiple grade 1 winner and yet is still running from a very low weight of 11,6. Not to mention SWC's claim of 5lbs I know the jockey has his faults but he still won 2/3 last year. My view of the RSA was the horse blew up after a long season and didn't get home after looking the likely winner when he pulled himself to the front.
 
Kauto said:
The more I look at this race the more I cannot see past Long Run. He is a multiple grade 1 winner and yet is still running from a very low weight of 11,6. Not to mention SWC's claim of 5lbs I know the jockey has his faults but he still won 2/3 last year. My view of the RSA was the horse blew up after a long season and didn't get home after looking the likely winner when he pulled himself to the front.
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Agree with all that but think Sam WC will make it a rollercoaster ride. I fancy Long Run to win by over 10 lengths.
 
He's off 11 stone 1 if you take the jockeys claim into account, and that is a very low weight for a multiple grade 1 winner. I've been a hugefan of this horse since before he ran in the UK and think he's as good a 7/2 shot as I have ever seen.
 
I couldn't back Long Run with Waley-Cohen up at current prices. For all that he shapes as if a strongly run 2m4f will be ideal, the jockey is a liability as far as I'm concerned. Sort of bet that will take years off your life.

Of the others Catch Me is thrown in on his hurdles mark but looking back at his Leopardstown run last Christmas, his jumping was abysmal in a steadily run 3m affair. Hardly augurs well for his prospects today and I just think he lacks the scope for chasing. I really like Mad Max but I just wonder if he might be best allowed to get his own way out in front - will almost certainly be taken on today and, whilst he may go well, that's enough to put me off.

Sunnyhillboy looks a fair price at 12's to my mind ~ Great Endeavour may be a more likely winner on Festival form but at the prices I prefer the McManus yoke and have had a small interest.
 
Euronymous said:
So Long Run should be 10s and Great Endeavour is too short. I'd like to bet on your tissue.
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of course both are too short...its wide open.

if you think this race is a gimme for any of them..you can bet with me any time

if you want to go in on Long Run at 7/2..you will lose heavy long term
 
EC1 said:
if you want to go in on Long Run at 7/2..you will lose heavy long term
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Long term has nothing to do with it. Long Run like Denman before his first Hennessy is a horse who looks a major contender for top honours running in a handicap off a handy mark.
 
I've backed Great Endeavour to win with my free William Hill bet, and some big priced outsiders at Ladbrokes because of their first 5 offer. Bet I don't get one in the first 5. Hope they all come back safe.
 
EC1 said:
of course both are too short...its wide open.

if you think this race is a gimme for any of them..you can bet with me any time

if you want to go in on Long Run at 7/2..you will lose heavy long term
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Totally agree EC1 - still probable winner but not at that price and with "not so shit jockey (5) - wouldn't even be for me at bigger than fives - with the top two underpriced there should be some serious value elsewhere but cannot find it!!:confused:
 
Clearly Sunnyhillboy is overpriced on his form with Great Endeavour. Poquelin is currently trading at 22 on Betfair which is a bit of an insult. I'm already full on the race but that's a very good price.
 
Euronymous said:
Long term has nothing to do with it. Long Run like Denman before his first Hennessy is a horse who looks a major contender for top honours running in a handicap off a handy mark.
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i think GE has greater potential though..LR doesn't look like a Denman to me..they aren't competetive races in the form line

at end of day..do you really think 7/2 + 5/1 are good prices..really?
 
I've had one bet in the day of race market - for all the horses faults i can't see Gonebeyondrecall as a 66/1 shot in this race, outside of Long Run it looks fairly open considering he beat the now 135 rated Wise Old Owl (after a couple of easy wins) by 20 lengths in a Beginners race and has scored again in handicap company since.

Getting 5 places in a big race like this I had to have a tickle.
 
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