Paddy Power Gold Cup

jft2005 said:
One lurking right at the bottom of the weights & possibly the most unexposed in the field is Triolo D'Alene. Henderson talked him up for the Novices Hcap Chase that Hunt Ball won at the festival.
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Do you know is he an intended runner?
 
Grasshopper said:
Anyone know anything about Al Ferof's well-being and/or targets?

Betfair's three-figure-prices about the horse for the Paddy Power is bellowing in my lughole, but I figure something must be pointing him away from the race for him to be at such odds.
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Confirmed runner, well done.

Still worth a bet at 12s perhaps.
 
Yep, thanks....just had my card marked via text. I'll be happy enough if I get to post on Saturday with the bets live. :cool:
 
Grands Crus has shortened up considerably as expected and I would side with him with a saver on Hunt Ball just in case he really is as good as his owner says he is !!
 
Hamm said:
Confirmed runner, well done.

Still worth a bet at 12s perhaps.
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He gives Grands Crus 2lbs but the price differential between the two is ridiculous. This sort of race is right up Al Ferof's alley and he's a far more likely winner of it than Hunt Ball or Walkon.
 
SlimChance said:
Yeah a real dark one. Could easily go off single figures if the right people punt it.
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Not sure Trio D'Alene is that dark to be honest.

He was exposed as a no better than fair hurdler in France (dropped in class when winning in the Provinces), before winning a middling novice chase at Ascot (received plenty weight). His best effort was at the Festival behind Hunt Ball, but he's only 12lbs better-off for a 29L caning. I can't see any reason why he will find the required improvement to beat HB, let alone several others n the race.

Whilst it's never clever to dismiss lightly-raced horses, there's nothng in his previous outings - hurdles or fences - to suggest he is anything other than what he appears to be; a badly-handicapped animal carrying about a stone extra in 'weight-for-stable-and-price-tag'.

More Chicuelo than Cyfor Malta about this one, I fear, and I recommend a degree of caution.

I'm fully aware that he will probably ****-up now. :cool:
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Recent Paddy Power Gold Cup Winners

2011 – Great Endeavour (8/1)
2010 – Little Josh (20/1)
2009 – Tranquil Sea (11/2 fav)
2008 – Imperial Commander (13/2)
2007 – L’Antartique (13/2)
2006 – Exotic Dancer (16/1)
2005 – Our Vic (9/2 fav)
2004 – Celestial Gold (12/1)
2003 – Fondmort (3/1 fav)
2002 – Cyfor Malta (16/1)

Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends

10/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before

Take out The Disengager, Casey Top,Questions Answered

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before

Take out Al Ferof, Forpadydeplasterer, Michael Flips, Triolo D'Alene

9/10 – Won by a UK-based trainer

Take out Jamsie Hall

8/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old

Take out Poquelin, Wishful Thinking, Calgary Bay,Divers, Finger On The Pulse

7/10 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/10 – Had won at Cheltenham before
6/10 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Aged 7 years-old
4/10 – Won their last race
5/10 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
4/10 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled just 6 placed horses (no winners) from his last 21 runners
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Eliminating horses on the top four stats leaves

Hunt Ball, Grands Crus, Aerial, Nadiya De La Vega, Walkon, Kingsmere, Gilbary with the most likely winner based on the other stats being Nadiya De La Vega

That's if you go by stats of course :ninja:
 
jft2005 said:
One lurking right at the bottom of the weights & possibly the most unexposed in the field is Triolo D'Alene. Henderson talked him up for the Novices Hcap Chase that Hunt Ball won at the festival.
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14 on Betfair this AM:ninja:
 
Thought there was a "Who's going to the Open" thread but cant see it, anyway the local forecast for the three days is

Friday Cloudy but dry and mild

Saturday Wet and blustery

Sunday Spells of sunshine
 
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