Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Took some 7/2 today after backing a yoke ew in the maiden at Roscommon. Can't see beyond her. Not a vintage renewal but very interesting non the less.
 
Oh god Euro, don't criticise the horse on Facebook. I got mauled on the Flemington page for suggesting he got beat fair and square at RA!

Gus, I'm of the opinion that weights and measures are all a bit over rated anyway, especially without published weights of horses in the public domain but in my mind, the WFA system is very old fashioned like a lot of things in racing and given improvements in training methods, changes in the calendar etc etc then it certainly should be reviewed but it wouldn't be top of my agenda. The more I think about it though, the more I do wonder if the prevalence of three year old winners is more to do with a combination of top three year olds retiring and being sent to stood and three year olds that stay in training having had hard campaigns and don't hold their form through to October of their four year old careers.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Oh god Euro, don't criticise the horse on Facebook. I got mauled on the Flemington page for suggesting he got beat fair and square at RA!

Gus, I'm of the opinion that weights and measures are all a bit over rated anyway, especially without published weights of horses in the public domain but in my mind, the WFA system is very old fashioned like a lot of things in racing and given improvements in training methods, changes in the calendar etc etc then it certainly should be reviewed but it wouldn't be top of my agenda. The more I think about it though, the more I do wonder if the prevalence of three year old winners is more to do with a combination of top three year olds retiring and being sent to stood and three year olds that stay in training having had hard campaigns and don't hold their form through to October of their four year old careers.
Click to expand...

there is definately some of this within it..you have a top 3yo against the older guard who are not world beaters or they would have been off to stud

if we had a 3yo like STS every year..a 3yo would win it 9/10 times..because the chances of him meeting an STS age 4 is virtually nil

even when you get a competent winner like WF..he doesn't look as hot as he did last year..so even if you pit the same horse against itself at both ages..the 3yo probably wins again.
 
Workforce didn't look too hot at this stage last year, either.
Given his achievements at 3yo, the only sane reason for keeping him in training was the expected improvement this season. Forgive him his KG run (injured), and there's little evidence that he hasn't.
 
Could you really fancy Workforce on what he or his stable have achieved this year? I have been completely underwhelmed with So You Think and am amazed they are going for this race when the Champion Stakes is there for the taking... Is it because AOB has nothing else with a snowballs chance?? Sarafina looks better and better the closer I look.
 
Gamla Stan said:
That's 800 million wankers then, including yourself. :D
Click to expand...

My account is all but dormant!

Seriously though, and this is for another topic ... facebook takes away from living in the real world that bit too much, substitutes it too much, and is needless!
 
EC1 said:
the problem is Steve..even it were proven that tha wfa scale is a touch generous..and they reduced it..you would get many people totally disagreeing with the change and no longer running their 3yo's agaisnt older horses

that would seriously damage the all aged races ..even though it might be correct to change it..you wouldn't change people's mindset

its the mindset not the actual change that will be the problem.

the wfa scale has been around for a long time..people in racing will always cite that
Click to expand...

It would also ensure that the better older horses were kept in training, which is a main complaint about the Flat by NH supporters (that thoroughbreds are shuffled off to stud too quickly and that many of the better horses do not return for subsequent seasons).
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
You can't just go from 8lbs WFA to no wfa at all - it's a pointless argument. I think Dalakhani's victory is a vote in favour of the current system. On level weights we'd have had to stomach some poor ass older animals winning the thing. Marienbard was surely enough for one decade.
Click to expand...

If the race were to be a championship race you could. You could keep the WFA scale for non-championship races.
 
Euronymous said:
On level weights we'd have had to stomach some poor ass older animals winning the thing. Marienbard was surely enough for one decade.
Click to expand...

On the other hand when Bago (not perhaps the greatest 3yo ever) won the Arc in 2004 3yos filled the first five places followed by a 4yo and two more 3yos, with all of the remaining older horses behind these.
 
SteveM said:
On the other hand when Bago (not perhaps the greatest 3yo ever) won the Arc in 2004 3yos filled the first five places followed by a 4yo and two more 3yos, with all of the remaining older horses behind these.
Click to expand...

Not sure are you aware, but there was in total 1 horse 4 or older that was less than 10s in the betting, that being Warrsan who was 9/1. Warrsan's Longchamp record reads 89 so in retrospect, it didn't appear like he should have ran any better. That Arc went as it should have had.
 
Last edited:
No, that's not what I said ... what I said was in terms of the odds of 3yos versus the odds of 4yos+, the result and spread of finishing places of these 2 separate groups, when roughly as you would expect.
 
This is besides the point though, as you would expect an element of the betting to include WFA dynamics.
 
SteveM said:
Really?... with a 10/1 winner and a 33/1 runner up, it went as it should have done?... Hope you did very well that day in that case!
Click to expand...

Bago's run behind Sulamani in the Juddmonte was the best form leading into the race. He was a crazy good price.
 
SteveM said:
This is besides the point though, as you would expect an element of the betting to include WFA dynamics.
Click to expand...

Ehhh, no you wouldn't, not in a million years. You may, and factoring that in could give you an edge, or throw you off track. The vast vast majority of people do not factor it in, believing the wfa scale to be correct.
 
I don't know that a "vast majority" do think it correct. I would say that most admit it gives the 3yos an enhanced chance.
 
Looking at the recent past there does seem to be some horrendous priced 3yo's - North Light, Motivator, Soldier of Fortune. Kind of bears Steve's point out to a certain extent.
 
Most people just take it for granted, I think that is pretty clear. As I said, I think you could have an edge, but I personally don't think so, or at least can't think so, until you show me why you think this the case. It would need detailed analysis, working out expected finishing positons based on odds, removing weight, and restating the race. This itself is fraught with the possiblity of errors, as horses can be given an easier time late on when the chance is gone, but the calculations can't take that into place...
 
Back
Top