Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Looking at the recent past there does seem to be some horrendous priced 3yo's - North Light, Motivator, Soldier of Fortune. Kind of bears Steve's point out to a certain extent.

;) ...I'll settle for that.

Also note the 3yos that have won it that have failed the following year: Carnegie, Helissio, Montjeu, Bago, Hurricane Run... This gives Workforce it all to do (as much as I love the horse).
 
Helissio had a hard campaign, over inadequate trip , ground against and Peintre was top class


Bago was a lucky winner


Hurricane was nothing special


Carneige was average


Montjeu was not healthy and had a tough opponent in Sinndar




the only thing about the weight for age is allowance is if it is one pound more or less but nothing different than that
 
at level weights Bago wouldn't have won though

Perhaps he would have won anyway (since the older horses performed particularly poorly that year), perhaps not. But the point remains that his task was made an awful lot easier.
 
Helissio had a hard campaign, over inadequate trip , ground against and Peintre was top class


Bago was a lucky winner


Hurricane was nothing special


Carneige was average


Montjeu was not healthy and had a tough opponent in Sinndar




the only thing about the weight for age is allowance is if it is one pound more or less but nothing different than that

Okay make excuses for all of them and ignore what is staring you in the face!... i.e. that they were up against it vs the 3yos.
 
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in statistics and 5 number show is not so representative


the fact is with all the races at that conditions and the wfa is ok for me.


Sarafina will win this year and is a 4yo.
 
Okay make excuses for all of them and ignore what is staring you in the face!

Steve, no offence, but I think it is you who is missing what is staring you in the face! It is very difficult for any 3yo horse to maintain (or even improve) his form, or hold it, into the autumn of his 4yo season. This has been seen time and again.

Many different organisations have spent countless hours I imagine working out an appropriate and fair scale - I am interested in your argument, and with your background, you should have no problem putting together a reasonable argument backed with mathematical evidence. The debate otherwise is a pointless one.

But, I am confused ... you seem to be saying 2 different things (they are not an either or) - the wfa scale is incorrect and biased towards 3yos, and that it should be abolished - which is your main point here>
 
in your world Steve the Arc would be without 3yo runners..they would just be run elsewhere

looks a bad move..i'm out;)

If you want to call the Arc a championship race then yes... By all means retain the WFA scale for other races where you want to give the younger horses weight concessions.
 
But, I am confused ... you seem to be saying 2 different things (they are not an either or) - the wfa scale is incorrect and biased towards 3yos, and that it should be abolished - which is your main point here>

What I am saying is the same as I've been saying all along... that the WFA scale should be abolished for championship races.

It depends how much of a concession you want to give 3yos as to whether it needs to be otherwise revised.
 
If you want to call the Arc a championship race then yes... By all means retain the WFA scale for other races where you want to give the younger horses weight concessions.

why not just bar all 3yo's from taking part Steve?

following your argument.. that would encourage even more owners to keep their horses in training..or would it?

wfa isn't a weight concession..never has been or will be...it enables us to watch horses run against each other we would never see otherwise...thats all its there for

to limit the competition between 3yo and 4yo is madness imo..just for sake of the word championship..i don't really care about the word..not enough to ruin races that have been around since year 1

if you want to make your own championship list up..then just do what i did and knock 5 lengths of all 3yo's..you would then have your championship horses..a cracking list remains i'll tell you:)

imo..that gives best of both worlds..the "championship" lovers have their champ..and other 99.999% of us would be able to watch 3yo race against 4yo

i don't see why you would ruin a race when you already have your championship winner
 
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If you barred 3yos from taking part it could not be called an All-age championship, but simply a race for older horses.

I like to see 3yos win when they are truly good enough (although few are truly good enough). To prove it they need to all carry the same weight.
 
This has to be one of the most boring debates I've ever read on TH. 5 days before the biggest race of the year and we're basically debating how much 3.5kg affects a 500kg animal against another 500kg animal. :D
 
Back to the race itself... 19 remain at the first forfeit stage, but it looks unlikely that Connections of Nathaniel and Meandre will stump up the €100,000 supplementary fee… If no 3yos turn up this would greatly enhance the chance of the older horses.;)
 
Why does it look unlikely Meandre will be supplemented? Strong on Betfair and in the betting all week in reaction to the likely ground.

Be amazed if they supplement Nathaniel though.
 
Nathaniel will almost certainly go for the Champion Stakes. Meandre may of course still take part, but there seem to be mixed messages about him and its a hefty amount to supplement if there are doubts.
 
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Where have you read mixed messages Steve? Interested as I'm on at three figure prices and the markets this week seemed to suggest he would be running.
 
If you barred 3yos from taking part it could not be called an All-age championship, but simply a race for older horses.

I like to see 3yos win when they are truly good enough (although few are truly good enough). To prove it they need to all carry the same weight.

it wouldn't prove they are just good enough though..it would prove that the winner was more than good enough..which is disadvantaging a horse short of maturity...why should a 3yo have to be 8lbs better than it should be to win a race?

whether you like it or not a 3yo isn't mature...your idea would disadvantage 95% of 3yo's running in it

the actual title you would have is "all age championship favouring older horses"
 
This has to be one of the most boring debates I've ever read on TH. 5 days before the biggest race of the year and we're basically debating how much 3.5kg affects a 500kg animal against another 500kg animal. :D

its about 5 lengths ...and in comparison to 1.5 miles...50ft isn't much either as a fraction

agree though a little..can't really understand Steve's view at all..but worth chewing the fat over

beats..will Sarafina win..every other post though :lol:
 
it wouldn't prove they are just good enough though..it would prove that the winner was more than good enough..which is disadvantaging a horse short of maturity...why should a 3yo have to be 8lbs better than it should be to win a race?

whether you like it or not a 3yo isn't mature...your idea would disadvantage 95% of 3yo's running in it

the actual title you would have is "all age championship favouring older horses"

I agree they are not fully mature, but at this time of year they have closed considerably on the older horses.
 
It depends how you would define maturity? Also, when is a three year old fully matured?

It surely depends on the horse in question.
 
Where have you read mixed messages Steve? Interested as I'm on at three figure prices and the markets this week seemed to suggest he would be running.

Maybe they are more hopeful of reversing form with Reliable Man on what is likely to be very different going than Fabre appeared to be (I'm never too sure how to read his comments anyway)... It's a lot of money to find out, then again no doubt the Rothschilds can afford it!
 
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It depends how you would define maturity? Also, when is a three year old fully matured?

It surely depends on the horse in question.

horses generally do not stop growing until they are about four, but obviously some will be a bit ahead of others.
 
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