Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Maybe mixed messages is overstating it… it seems from this that Meandre will be supplemented although Fabre doesn’t sound brimming with it:

"…I do not want to make any excuses. Reliable Man was striding out a lot better than he did in the Grand Prix de Paris on Sunday and we were beaten by a better horse on the day.

Meandre will still go for the Arc and I hope he can run a good race, but we will see…"

Source: PA
 
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SteveM said:
horses generally do not stop growing until they are about four, but obviously some will be a bit ahead of others.
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Indeed, a decent indicator is looking at horses weights when they run in Hong Kong in early December as they are published publically on the HKJC website.
 
Gamla Stan said:
This has to be one of the most boring debates I've ever read on TH. 5 days before the biggest race of the year and we're basically debating how much 3.5kg affects a 500kg animal against another 500kg animal. :D
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In that case weight can be ignored in every single handicap and you just back the horse you think best.

Simon Rowlands would bend you over and slap yourbackside!
 
Hamm said:
In that case weight can be ignored in every single handicap and you just back the horse you think best.
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Which is what I do and it works fine for me, my ratings totally ignore weight, I prefer to concentrate on raw speed and class of races. I don't proclaim I'm 100% right but I don't think people who believe that the pounds per length ratio are scientifically accurately are right either.

Plenty of American studies have suggested that weight does not have the effect on horse's performance that the status quo has us believe. Horses weigh different amounts themselves and 3lb won't affect each horse in the same way.

Planteur weighed 72lb more than Vision D'Etat in Hong Kong last year, yet he received 3lb from the older horse.
 
Hamm said:
In that case weight can be ignored in every single handicap and you just back the horse you think best.

Simon Rowlands would bend you over and slap yourbackside!
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It's obvious big fecking weight differences in gruelling long distances chases are gonna make a diff. But the odd five or six pounds in a mile and half race equals bugger all.

Frankel was better than CC
CC was better than RVW
RVW was better than Paco Boy.

End of.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Which is what I do and it works fine for me, my ratings totally ignore weight, I prefer to concentrate on raw speed and class of races. I don't proclaim I'm 100% right but I don't think people who believe that the pounds per length ratio are scientifically accurately are right either.

Plenty of American studies have suggested that weight does not have the effect on horse's performance that the status quo has us believe. Horses weigh different amounts themselves and 3lb won't affect each horse in the same way.
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Lets say your ratings say horse A is clear best rated by (when we convert your ratings into pounds) 3 pounds. Horse B is next best but is carrying 2 stone less. It's a 2 horse race and you have to have a bet! Which one do you back?
 
Gamla Stan said:
Planteur weighed 72lb more than Vision D'Etat in Hong Kong last year, yet he received 3lb from the older horse.
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You're mistaking weight of a horse with maturity of a horse - an immature horse can and often will weigh more than an older, mature horse.
 
Hamm said:
Either weight counts, or it doesn't. Or is there some sort of made up tipping point?
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Obviously, it counts to some extent in extremes but I don't think you can quantify it as scientifically as the scales have us believe. Each horse is different and 900-1100 pound animals will have different tolerances to carrying different weights.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Each horse is different and 900-1100 pound animals will have different tolerances to carrying different weights.
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One of my profitable systems in the past was to follow big animals near the top of the weights. I remember Yavana's Pace carrying top weight to victory in the November Handicap years back but he was an enormous thing.
 
Euronymous said:
One of my profitable systems in the past was to follow big animals near the top of the weights. I remember Yavana's Pace carrying top weight to victory in the November Handicap years back but he was an enormous thing.
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If we had published horses weights, this task would be a lot easier.
 
EC1 said:
..your idea would disadvantage 95% of 3yo's running in it

the actual title you would have is "all age championship favouring older horses"
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Call me old fashioned if you like but my idea of a champion is someone or something that is best at something.

When running for a Gold Medal in an Olympic final the teenagers don’t get 10 yard start.
 
reet hard said:
How many ' Eclipse also rans' - beaten 1/2l by a 6 times 10f gp1 winner - have actually run in the Arc?
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I'm ignoring the 6 times bit. That's not just casting doubt on the class of some of these Group 1 races in Australia - his toughest opponent in his first over here was Campanologist ffs.

Authorized was beaten 1 1/2L by a proven Group 1 performer in the Eclipse before disappointing in the Arc.
Motivator was beaten half a length by a horse who ended up with more than one 10f Group 1 to his name in the Eclipse before finishing fifth in his one Arc attempt.
Kalanisi was second in an Eclipse to a proven 10f Group 1 performer and although he didn't run in that year's Arc he would have done, and got beat, if Sinndar hadn't been owned by the same dude.
Fantastic Light was beaten a neck and half a length in the 1999 Eclipse before running well down the field at Longchamp.
Pentire was beaten less than two lengths in the 1996 edition of the Sandown race, beaten by the top class Halling, before finishing nowhere in the Arc.
Sapience was third in the 1992 Eclipse, beaten a length and half and the same by two proven 10f animals in Kooyonga and Opera House. He finished well down the field in the Arc later on in the year.
 
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SteveM said:
Call me old fashioned if you like but my idea of a champion is someone or something that is best at something.

When running for a Gold Medal in an Olympic final the teenagers don’t get 10 yard start.
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those teenagers aren't retired off to stud when they are 20 year old though Steve
 
Euronymous said:
I'm ignoring the 6 times bit. That's not just casting doubt on the class of some of these Group 1 races in Australia - his toughest opponent in his first over here was Campanologist ffs.

Authorized was beaten 1 1/2L by a proven Group 1 performer in the Eclipse before disappointing in the Arc.
Motivator was beaten half a length by a horse who ended up with more than one 10f Group 1 to his name in the Eclipse before finishing fifth in his one Arc attempt.
Kalanisi was second in an Eclipse to a proven 10f Group 1 performer and although he didn't run in that year's Arc he would have done, and got beat, if Sinndar hadn't been owned by the same dude.
Fantastic Light was beaten a neck and half a length in the 1999 Eclipse before running well down the field at Longchamp.
Pentire was beaten less than two lengths in the 1996 edition of the Sandown race, beaten by the top class Halling, before finishing nowhere in the Arc.
Sapience was third in the 1992 Eclipse, beaten a length and half and the same by two proven 10f animals in Kooyonga and Opera House. He finished well down the field in the Arc later on in the year.
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thats what i meant when i said a 3yo is specially prepared to win the Arc..no dickin about with 10f drops

to win the Arc you need to keep a horse at 12f imo when its 3..and to be fair when its 4 i don't think a good campaign is to keep hitting 10f races

surely training a horse for 12 is different than for 10f..if a horse gets trained for 10 ..even if a proven 12f horse...then the Arc could imo stretch its regime.

some of those examples do back that theory up a bit

I don't count such as Dancing Brave becasue he worked his way up as did STS..and they were exceptional.

We should also remember that without wfa..Dancing Brave would have lost his Arc :thumbsdown:
 
EC1 said:
We should also remember that without wfa..Dancing Brave would have lost his Arc :thumbsdown:
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I don't see how. He travelled well within himself throughout the race and cut the field down. I don't see anything other than a rampant welter burden stopping him winning that race.
 
Of those remaining in terms of rating, Galikova, Reliable Man and Treasure Beach come out the best of the 3yos

So You Think, Workforce, Nakayama Festa and Sarafina best of the older horses.

If they were all to reproduce their best at the distance and given the weight dynamics there would be nothing between Galikova, So You Think, Reliable Man and Workforce. I’m a huge fan of Workforce, but he’ll have to put up the performance of his life to be sure of winning. Although I was sceptical at first I have to admit So You Think is also pretty special. Sarafina has hit top form and I like the way she quickens. Reliable Man is also improving at the right time, but I’m not sure if the going will be ideal for him.

So I’m left with Galikova. I can’t find anything to dislike about her and I expect her to improve again, which will put her in front... I’ve gone in for the 8/1. A rating of 130+ a pound or two will win it and with her 11lb from the older horses plus improvement I think she can do it.
 
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