Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Congrats to Irish Stamp and Crazyhorse, they said enough beforehand for us all to be aware this horse might be very good indeed.

All the same I have to admit to being somewhat stunned. All those good horses which never got in a blow.

Danedream has beaten a very strong field in smashing style. And what about the second, who helped cut out a record pace, was headed by SNA early in the straight but fought back and kept the rest of the field at bay?
 
the time of the race in relation to the rest of the card is exceptional

using a relationship between the 4 main race times i estimate an average Arc winner should have run todays trip in approx 146.50

Danedream ran it in 144.49..2 seconds faster

a second check against the later 12f handicap also looks impressive..6.2 seconds faster..that race would be a C /B class..even if we say thats only a class C handicap it makes the Arc winner a very large speed figure....in fact if that handicap is only our class D its still really good.

any of you that follow french racing ....what class would that handicap equate to do you think?


this is a very very good horse imo
 
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Spot on Venusian - a very good post. It does nothing to dispel the sense of anti-climax. A fantastic result for the fillies and we have had some truly great fillies racing over the last number of years. Everything points to Danedream being another exceptional filly but bar Crazy Horse, Irish Stamp and a couple of others mentioning her I knew very little about her as many others in the same boat. Bar the winner the rest looked a fairly moderate bunch.
 
My thoughts for what they are worth:

I think the winner is a great filly. She beat a savage field in a good time. I was tempted to back her after the comments on here, but decided to focus on SYT.

The second could be a very good filly, but possibly holds the form down a bit. That said, she is well bred, has won good races and was well fancied in the Diane when inexperienced.

Snow Fairy ran a great race, and proved that she is one of the best fillies in training. Many won't be surprised that she turned the form with SYT, given the time of year and the extra 2f.

So You Think ran another good race. He has conclusively proven that he is classy, tough, consistent and versatile. However, he has also proven that he is not an all-time great, as I had hoped he might be. I think EC1 might have said he is a grinder without the X-Factor. That is right, but he is a classy grinder.

St. Nicholas Abbey ran well. I would like to see them go for the Cup races with him from next year. Workforce was unlucky with the bump. I was surprised the Japanese horses never got into it. I never fancied Galikova or Sarafina, but surely they are better than that? Especially the latter. Similar comments apply to Meandre and Reliable Man. I just realised that I have no idea where Masked Marvel finished.

General comments:

The draw didn't seem to make a difference,
People may be right that the wfa needs to be reduced. It has been reduced for 4yo/5yo chasers twice in the past 12 years. But it is the type of decision that should be taken after studying years of statistcal data, not because an improving filly who didn't even make the pace came second in the Arc.

I enjoyed the race. I always do.
 
I wasn't questioning her worthiness as a winner.

She had a great passage through the race due to her draw, getting the breaks and also a very good ride from her jockey.
 
Bar the Bull said:
People may be right that the wfa needs to be reduced. It has been reduced for 4yo/5yo chasers twice in the past 12 years. But it is the type of decision that should be taken after studying years of statistcal data, not because an improving filly who didn't even make the pace came second in the Arc.
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Eclipse 3yo's get 11lbs and don't have a brilliant record in the race. For me a 3lb reduction in three months just isn't enough. It seems logical at the age of three that a horse is going to mature quite a bit over a three month period. That's like 10% of it's life.
 
But you are talking different distances. In the UK:

10f in July.....11lb
10f in October 5lb.

So it is a 6lb difference in three months.

Again, maybe that is wrong. But I am not so sure.

How about this for stat.

Average finishing position in this year's Arc by age:

3yo 9.5
4yo 7.5
5yo 7.5

Seems to me that wfa wasn't too much from that stat.
 
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Sometimes horses run above themselves and sometimes below. They are animals after all. When our attempts to classify them by rating, grade etc is thrown on it's head like it has been to a certain extent today - that leaves you with an uneasy feeling. At no time before in racing have so many of us got practically limitless access to racing channels, Internet sites and forums such as this.
When conventional wisdom is seriously questioned like it was today it leaves a hollow uneasy feeling. Horses make fools of even the most astute.
 
Good link to the race here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb9K3oqp7FE
which includes a few sectionals.
To my eyes it looks a solid pace throughout with little sign of slowing down in the closing stages, which points to the race not being all that as a test of stamina. That, and the course record, suggests it's probably the fastest ground the race has been run on.
The winner is clearly a very high class filly, though the proximity of SNA prevents her from being a superstar just yet - imo, of course
 
Bar the Bull said:
But you are talking different distances. In the UK:

10f in July.....11lb
10f in October 5lb.

So it is a 6lb difference in three months.

Again, maybe that is wrong. But I am not so sure.

How about this for stat.

Average finishing position in this year's Arc by age:

3yo 9.5
4yo 7.5
5yo 7.5

Seems to me that wfa wasn't too much from that stat.
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3yo's get 8lbs in the Arc. All that last stat tells me is that it was the owner of Masked Marvel who wanted him supplemented not the trainer. Should have been 100s.
 
EC1 said:
the time of the race in relation to the rest of the card is exceptional

using a relationship between the 4 main race times i estimate an average Arc winner should have run todays trip in approx 146.50

Danedream ran it in 144.49..2 seconds faster

a second check against the later 12f handicap also looks impressive..6.2 seconds faster..that race would be a C /B class..even if we say thats only a class C handicap it makes the Arc winner a very large speed figure....in fact if that handicap is only our class D its still really good.

any of you that follow french racing ....what class would that handicap equate to do you think?


this is a very very good horse imo
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The winner of the handicap carried 58kg, and the race had a reference weight of +12 for older horses, which gives him an OR of 46kg going into the race. That converts to 101 lbs.

But the time of the handicap is so much slower compared to the Arc (something like 50lbs) that I'd suggest it wasn't truly run and isn't a good marker.

Edit: I'm not sure if the reference weight for the older horses is +12 or +15.5. If its the latter it makes the winner a 94 rated horse (plus improvement shown today) so it still doesn't really work as a marker for the Arc race.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
The winner of the handicap carried 58kg, and the race had a reference weight of +12 for older horses, which gives him an OR of 46kg going into the race. That converts to 101 lbs.

But the time of the handicap is so much slower compared to the Arc (something like 50lbs) that I'd suggest it wasn't truly run and isn't a good marker.
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I thought it was run at a decent tempo to be honest but I've only seen it the once. The time looks remarkable, had some emails telling me it is the quickest middle distance speed figure achieved in a long time.

Venusian's post is one of the best I've read in a while, the sour grapes from some regarding the winner are shocking. She's absolutely demolished a Group One field by five lengths (one of the biggest winning margins in the race according to the RP) in a race record time and people are attempting to crab the form/tactics of other runners/way the race was run. She's exceptional and world class unless everyone really thinks Sarafina, So You Think, Meandre, Workforce et al are all sub 120 animals all of a sudden.

Well done to Martin and others for putting others to shame (including myself, I lost 4 figures on the event in antepost bets) in thinking outside the box and realising that there could be something special in the field.

I've had a nightmare weekend punting but it's races like today which almost make it worthwhile.
 
Gamla Stan said:
the sour grapes from some regarding the winner are shocking. She's absolutely demolished a Group One field by five lengths (one of the biggest winning margins in the race according to the RP) in a race record time and people are attempting to crab the form/tactics of other runners/way the race was run.
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I don't really get where these posts are. For me though it should be an easy enough race to rate via Snow Fairy. Sarafina and SYT were ridden awfully - but that takes nothing away from the winner, neither would have been better than second if the tactics had been correct.

I've also lost a packet on the race but that's punting. Cirrus Des Aigles will hopefully get it back for me.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I thought it was run at a decent tempo to be honest but I've only seen it the once. The time looks remarkable, had some emails telling me it is the quickest middle distance speed figure achieved in a long time.
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The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the race was run on rattling fast ground, and the clockers may have gone a little overboard with their assessments because of it, (IIRC, there was 10m of water added Thursday evening and nothing since, and the weather suggests it was drying by the hour).
The Arc sectionals, the way the 2nd kept on despite chasing the pace, and few of the field actually weakening all support that view, as does the way Kasbah Bliss skipped clear of his field, Sole Power running the race of his life, and Dream Ahead winning at a distance he hadn't previously stayed on a bus. All point in one direction, imo, and that's the ground was appreciably faster than normal for this meeting, probably down to the quirky weather.
None of which detracts from the winner, of course, just that the clock may not be the best way to judge the race, in this particular instance.
 
It was a fine edition with a top class winner.

I tended not to believe the rating of the german fillie in the last 2 races and obviously I was wrong,

yesterday the time is was superb fast in comparation of the rest of the card and the winner is the best middle disatnce fillie in a long time,
my provisional figure is 130p and there could be more to come
phisically is nothing especial but the engine is obviously there, also the fillie goes on different ground and on the day I dont think any Arc winner would have beaten her yesterday in the Arc,



about the rest of the field
Sarafina didnt enjoy the ground , So You Think was not targeted for this and draw was not a help for the tactics.
Workforce very disappointing in another very bad season for Stoute.
Snow Fairy very good run and Asia waits for her.
 
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Result: Timeform rate Danedream 132+
Timeform has provisionally rated Danedream 132+ following the three-year-old filly's impressive win in the 2011 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. ...

The rating, which takes into account the fact that Danedream got a sex and age allowance, is slightly above average for a winner of Europe's richest race, won often by great horses but not always with their best performances.

Danedream was improving her pre-race rating of 125, achieved with wide-margin wins in Group 1s in her native Germany.

Danedream had five lengths to spare at the line over outsider Shareta, with Snow Fairy and a never-dangerous So You Think third and fourth. Less than three lengths separated second from eighth.

Danedream became the second German-trained winner of the Arc, following Star Appeal, rated 133 by Timeform after winning as a five-year-old in 1975.
 
Euronymous said:
I don't really get where these posts are. For me though it should be an easy enough race to rate via Snow Fairy. Sarafina and SYT were ridden awfully - but that takes nothing away from the winner, neither would have been better than second if the tactics had been correct.
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Fair enough, I thought you were more making excuses for your bets than appreciating the winner but evidently not, apologies. There were some pretty moronic views on Twitter though.

reet hard, Speed ratings take into account the ground. For example, on my ratings, I calculate how much the ground has quickened or slowed down horses by points on my ratings scale and add or subtract this to the horse's rating to give it a final rating. Nearly all speed raters would do the same (unless they're mental) so if EC and Martin say it was exceptionally quick, it would have been. Nobody looks at the time at face value to evaluate it. I'll be rating the race up myself in the coming days when back in the UK.

The winner goes to the BC Turf or the Japan Cup next apparently.
 
Euronymous said:
3yo's get 8lbs in the Arc.
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True.

But you are comparing that allowance to the Eclipse, which is run over a different distance.

The Princess of Wales's Stakes is run in July over the Arc distance.

There is a 13lb allowance in that race. So a 5lb swing in three months, not the 3lb you mentioned.

On average, 3yo horses were the worst performing age group in yesterday's race.

Now let's take the last 7 Arc runnings.

3yo's...43 runners....average position 8.3
4yo's...36 runners....average positoin 8.1
5yo+...25 runners....average position 8.7

Hmmmm. Is this a knee-jerk reaction?
 
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Bar the Bull said:
On average, 3yo horses were the worst performing age group in yesterday's race.

Now let's take the last 7 Arc runnings.

3yo's...43 runners....average position 8.3
4yo's...36 runners....average positoin 8.1
5yo+...25 runners....average position 8.7
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I think the average position stat isn't the right one to be honest. If a horse is being run in the race in error, if he or she is being over faced, the chances are it is going to be a 3yo because they wont be as exposed. Masked Marvel shouldn't have been in the race yesterday and TB was a pacemaker.
 
In hindsight, Masked Marvel shouldn't have been in the race. But he was fancied in many quarters.

Shareta was also a pacemaker, and she bumped up the average finishing position.

If you take out the leader in each race, the result wouldn't be much different.
 
Euronymous said:
I wonder if today's result will see a change in the WFA allowance? There is no way that Shareta is the second best 12f horse in that race. She was too close to a fast pace and yet only one animal could pass her - for me the weight she got must have made a difference.
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It’s not that the WFA scale necessarily needs to be scrapped or even revised (it depends how much of an advantage we want to hand to the 3yos on such occasions). But when a 3yo wins so easily (…and I’d be saying the same if Galikova or Reliable Man had won) you have to ask yourself whether the WFA scale is relevant for a championship race.

RFC could steal a march on the French by creating at least one new such race in which entire horses, mares, geldings, colts and fillies, regardless of age, carried the same weight. This would have the additional advantage of encouraging older horses to stay in training.
 
Euronymous said:
Maybe not. I'll never lump on an older horse again like I did yesterday though - lesson learned.
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It's true. Even when the older horses are as good as they are this year they are really up against it given the WFA conditions. Like you say, when the pacemaker for an older horse (that was favourite) finishes runner-up in front of the other one, something is wrong somewhere.
 
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