Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

Sea Pigeon said:
Is he not running in Canada? Agree he is the dark one if he turns up
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Rumour is he's been left in as backup in case Camelot doesn't run.

Camelot will only run if work is satisfactory tomorrow (just announced).

Certainly worth a bet NRNB
 
Aragorn said:
But wasn't the point made that by your original reasoning he'd finish fourth? The loss of Danedream and Snow Fairy has probably rendered it moot but your original point was self defeating.
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Was it?... I was talking about 3yos that are already good enough. Danedream, Snow Fairy and Nathaniel aren't 3yos. Camelot has already run to a level to figure in the Arc, unless you believe this to be the best Arc ever. Also they must run up to their best form for it to work out. And also as 3yos are less exposed they are more likely to improve on an extant rating relative to the older horses... so I don't see how it is self defeating.
 
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sunybay said:
"good enough" for you, not for me
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But it's good enough (to be placed) for every running of the Arc we can come up with. You can say that that's not good enough for you, but what does that mean? He clearly is "good enough" if he runs to form. It's only if you don't expect him to run to that form that you can sensibly oppose him from being placed.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Rumour is he's been left in as backup in case Camelot doesn't run.

Camelot will only run if work is satisfactory tomorrow (just announced).

Certainly worth a bet NRNB
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He is quite transparently a back up to Camelot (or Camelot a back up for him). I'm expecting one of the 3yos to run together with SNA and at least one pacemaker.

Of the older horses I fancy SNA's chance. Of the 3yos Camelot and Imperial Monarch are leading chances. I'm expecting two of these three to take part.
 
It's a big shame that Danedream can't run and if there is no way around the three month freeze on horse movements in the Cologne area she will have to miss all those other big end of season races too.
 
On The Bridle said:
Orfevre would be an absolute certainty for this if it weren't for his "quirks". Reminds me of an ex girlfriend who in our all too infrequent meetings,I didn't know whether she was going to ride the ears off me or beat the ears off me.

I've topped up on Orfevre.
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Orfevre should at least be placed if running to form. I've slight preference for two (or three) others (depending who runs).

If they all run to their best form but not beyond it Orfevre will win. However if Camelot improves 4lb (the same as the first and second did last year) he'll probably win. You pays your money and you takes your chance.
 
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Grey said:
It's a big shame that Danedream can't run and if there is no way around the three month freeze on horse movements in the Cologne area she will have to miss all those other big end of season races too.
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I agree. It always devalues a race like this a little for me if the holder can't defend. Shareta carries last year's form now.
 
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starting to look a pretty poor renewal. shame when you think nathaniel, danedream, snow fairy and frankel could have been in this and it would have been one of the best.
 
JamesRB said:
starting to look a pretty poor renewal. shame when you think nathaniel, danedream, snow fairy and frankel could have been in this and it would have been one of the best.
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Don't know about poor as there are still a handful that are being completely underestimated. Those you mention would have all held chances though.
 
I still don't think Camelot will run myself.

Shareta EW and Imperial Monarch NRNB the only value left in this market now.

Orfevre can probably run a touch below form and take the race and given my AP position, I hope this is the case.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I still don't think Camelot will run myself.
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They are due to make an announcement after working him tomorrow morning. Imperial Monarch is ready to step in if things don't run to plan. And SNA shouldn't be forgotten... Joseph hasn't been putting this one in with a chance all season.
 
Shame he's riding him again on Sunday then. He's also got a fair bit to find with Orfevre and Shareta.
 
Seems the likeliest combination this evening from reports is that Camelot will join SNA, hopefully with pacemaker(s).
 
simmo said:
More and more, I'm getting a rager for Shareta here (backed at 34). I can feel it in my water.
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I like her but she does have a bit to find. She's basically a 120 horse with a squeak who has hit close to her best form at the right time. Can't really see how she can be expected to finish in front of Camelot for example though.
 
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SteveM said:
Was it?... I was talking about 3yos that are already good enough. Danedream, Snow Fairy and Nathaniel aren't 3yos. Camelot has already run to a level to figure in the Arc, unless you believe this to be the best Arc ever. Also they must run up to their best form for it to work out. And also as 3yos are less exposed they are more likely to improve on an extant rating relative to the older horses... so I don't see how it is self defeating.
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I can't be bothered to find the post but you made a statement that camelots rating entitled him to place at th very least until someone else pointed out that on ratings he was joint fourth best....

3yo's improve on their rating because they come against the best horses. It's all relative.
 
S**T,B******s AND F**k!
I really thought Nathaniel was the one for this race.
Buick now free to ride Camelot as well.
I hope Nath goes Breeders Cup route to show us what he is made of.
Field might get small enough for Meandre to find a place somehow.
 
Aragorn said:
I can't be bothered to find the post but you made a statement that camelots rating entitled him to place at th very least until someone else pointed out that on ratings he was joint fourth best....
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But this is immaterial. The point was that he had already run to a rating that would see him placed in any Arc.

For one reason or another horses drop out, but the stats stand that an RPR of 128 would place him in any Arc if he 1) ran to that; or 2) unless this was a better Arc than all the others.
 
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