Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Miesque
At the Start
If she runs with credit I retract my generalisation
How would a muddy dirt track suit her....?
Sheikh
At the Start
It wouldn't I'd say but I will defer to your judgement on that
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
I did put him up to you in January so not surprised you're happy...
prince regent
Conditional
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 588
if he had kept a straight course he would have won
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Danedream would have won.
S
SlimChance
Guest
Dry your eyes.
EC1
On a break
no..everytime i bet to win
over a period of time its proved more profitable than not doing it Slim..you talk as though they never get matched. when you get 2nditis for a good period its a very good ploy.
i can't do with backing horses that get beat and then finding out they have traded at 1.05 or less..it gauls me..so whether its mathematically correct or not i do it
Today is prime example..i'd be absolutely gutted at seeing a horse look an easy winner get beat like that..and it happens enough for me to keep doing it.
At those times when you can do no wrong you do forget or think well i'm doing ok so you don't really think about it..but those times are shorter than the losing periods.
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Miesque
At the Start
I guess it depends if they seal it like they did at Churchill last year. I'd prefer to see her run in the turf if at all.
S
SlimChance
Guest
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EC1
On a break
i've had plenty of them
Reet said were Good to soft so i can't see it being the going tbh..he lost 8 shoes in the race though according to AOB
... who apparently had a pop at Frankel's connections afterwards..don't know what he said but someone mentioned it on another forum..did anyone hear it?
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EC1
On a break
it was
"its the easiest thing in the world to keep a top miler over a mile or mile and a quarter".
which is a bit odd really because i doubt anyone with a top miler would consider running it over 1.5 miles..how often has Excelebration run over 1.5 miles for instance?
its a bit like a trainer after a Derby saying..its the easiest thing in the world to have a good 6/7f horse and keep it over that distance
a bizarre comment imo
"its the easiest thing in the world to keep a top miler over a mile or mile and a quarter".
which is a bit odd really because i doubt anyone with a top miler would consider running it over 1.5 miles..how often has Excelebration run over 1.5 miles for instance?
its a bit like a trainer after a Derby saying..its the easiest thing in the world to have a good 6/7f horse and keep it over that distance
a bizarre comment imo
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
What hurts is losing the winnings not the stake. Hedging like EC has never occured to me.
EC1
On a break
what got me doing it to start with was trading at 1.02..did it for a few days and actually got two back to back ones..which was unreal..they were only small bets..something like 20 quid on something at 8/1..but i traded at 1.02 to win £400 each time...pulled in 800 ish sheets for backing two losers. If the horses had won i'd still got 160 minus 8 quid each time. So i've staked 40 quid on two losers and won 800 instead of losing 40..that i like very much
i upped it to 1.05 because the run didn't last of course. If i get on a good actual win run i'll probably drop to 1.02 again. But when you aren't getting the winners its surprising how it can help.
i see it as pain reduction..makes life less angry..which i value more than whether it makes mathematical sense or not
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EC1
On a break
i'll have the emotional satisfaction Slim tbh
we all have to bet how we are happiest...thats all i do nowadays
you have to ask yourself..do you notice that little % or do you remember when you are gutted about a horse losing and then realise you still got a couple of hundred to come back...and i have forgotten sometimes..i'm thinking bollox then realise i've greened up with a nice stash back
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I dont think it was the draw or the ground
it was just bad luck
Soumi did what was most likely to work, to push the horse on that ground
but the timing with the horse quirks made the fillie to come back
He has the ability of truly champion but the head was the problem.
He had made some tnaughty hings in the past in Japan but never stopping in front, so this was unexpected.
About Solemia
I think she run a 124/125 and on this ground she is good Arc winner
Last years people tend to crap Danedream and the form has proved to be good
About Camelot, he run very well, better than I expected.He is the worst Derby winner since Oath and his last 3 runs will not make any good for next season campaign.
Finally
laying at very short prices in running is a very good system, especially over jumps, I used to do it in the past but I can not do it nowdays as betfair is banned in Spain.
I still remember when The Listener was caught by Beef Or Salmon that day
it was just bad luck
Soumi did what was most likely to work, to push the horse on that ground
but the timing with the horse quirks made the fillie to come back
He has the ability of truly champion but the head was the problem.
He had made some tnaughty hings in the past in Japan but never stopping in front, so this was unexpected.
About Solemia
I think she run a 124/125 and on this ground she is good Arc winner
Last years people tend to crap Danedream and the form has proved to be good
About Camelot, he run very well, better than I expected.He is the worst Derby winner since Oath and his last 3 runs will not make any good for next season campaign.
Finally
laying at very short prices in running is a very good system, especially over jumps, I used to do it in the past but I can not do it nowdays as betfair is banned in Spain.
I still remember when The Listener was caught by Beef Or Salmon that day
S
SlimChance
Guest
On The Bridle
At the Start
Fair play to Suny and Gamla on a very good call. I went along for the ride from the start of the year. To be so close to a collasal win and have it ripped away is heart wrenching. To post my pocket talk here is more convivial to a happy family life than moping all evening - it's cathartic..
Watched the race several times since - Orferve's acceleration was breath taking - if Soumillion had the race to ride again he would ideally have left his run until later. In fairness he took at least two serious pulls put of the horse early in the straight. When he said go he passed the whole field in a matter of strides which was a sight to behold.
I always feel its emotionally more difficult to take when a horse hits the front, goes clear and gets mugged than when he leaves it too late. Today was especially tough giving the sums involved. Congrats to winning connections and a very tough filly.
Watched the race several times since - Orferve's acceleration was breath taking - if Soumillion had the race to ride again he would ideally have left his run until later. In fairness he took at least two serious pulls put of the horse early in the straight. When he said go he passed the whole field in a matter of strides which was a sight to behold.
I always feel its emotionally more difficult to take when a horse hits the front, goes clear and gets mugged than when he leaves it too late. Today was especially tough giving the sums involved. Congrats to winning connections and a very tough filly.
EC1
On a break
good post Suny..i remember last year when Danedream broke the course record whilst all the other races pointed to Good ground on times..that marked her out as something really good..not many horses beat track records without the ground to suit...how anyone could think that wasn't a really good Arc win by her i don't know. Tend to agree with Bar..i think Danedream would have won this
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S
SlimChance
Guest
Also a good post Barry. A lot of us take notice of people's opinion on here and David brought the horse to my attention monts ago. Serious call.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It's not a case of being a bad loser, it's just that much harder to take when the best horse doesn't win. Like Barry says defeats in this sort manner are the worst from an emotional standpoint. I'm very lucky in that I had a big winner the previous weekend but without that this would be hard to recover from. Reminded me of Maljimar's mugging by Wichita Lineman.
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