Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

I dont think Soumillion expected Orfevre to pick up as well out of the ground. Would be interested to hear how people are rating the race.

The way the races were being finished - the opera and the cadran - suggested to the eye that it was very sticky.
 
Grey said:
Going into yesterday's race you could have said nearly every other horse in it was streets ahead of Solemia, so it proves nothing.

I think this underestimates how tough conditions were. These were top class horses yesterday, not a Friday at Cork or Newcastle, so yes, some of them were able to look good and even to quicken. But more than one horse in yesterday's races ran out of petrol after looking odds on to win.
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Except that Nathaniel is proven on soft ground and his best performances have come on it ! Look at the fourth for crying out loud she is a listed class animal at best and was beaten out of sight in the September Stakes .
 
Euronymous said:
It's not a case of being a bad loser, it's just that much harder to take when the best horse doesn't win. Like Barry says defeats in this sort manner are the worst from an emotional standpoint. I'm very lucky in that I had a big winner the previous weekend but without that this would be hard to recover from. Reminded me of Maljimar's mugging by Wichita Lineman.
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Fair enough. I was on Maljimar that day too and have nightmares about it. That, and the year before had backed Juveigneur and Distant Thunder split stakes only to be done by Joe's Edge.
 
reet hard said:
The ground was no worse than soft - something I suspected immediately Mayson was outpaced in the early stages of the Abbaye (run in just 4.37 secs above standard).
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What do you mean "just 4.37 secs". That's a huge amount over 5f.
 
Ardross said:
Except that Nathaniel is proven on soft ground and his best performances have come on it ! Look at the fourth for crying out loud she is a listed class animal at best and was beaten out of sight in the September Stakes .
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I don't think yesterday's ground was merely soft, certainly not spongy soft. And just because conditions were difficult, and you get different results on it, doesn't make the form 'suspect'.

Only two horses could cope yesterday in what was a true run race. I don't see how anyone could be confident that Nathaniel would also have coped. Danedream, on the other hand, won a Gr1 on similar ground at Baden Baden last year.

Yesterday's third was more than 7l, the fourth more than 8l, behind the winner. I don't think that in these circumstances the handicappers will be talking about the 'proximity' of any of the placed horses holding back the form.
 
Reportedly almost £20,000 was traded on Betfair at 1.01 on Orfevre when hit the front. Soumillion would undoubtedly have done better had he not been in so much of a rush to get things finished. The haste of Orfevre’s forward move in that ground must have left the horse gasping. The winner wound him in like a half dead tuna. Both finished well clear though.

RPRs have Orfevre on 126 for the race with Solemia on effectively the same (123). Masterstroke is rated 114, the fourth Haya Landa 111, Yellow And Green 109, Great Heavens 105 and Camelot and Sea Moon 107. Camelot consequently ran 21 lb short of his form according to this.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
What do you mean "just 4.37 secs". That's a huge amount over 5f.
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the race should also be faster than standard to just be good ground..the RP standard is set at a 100 horse carrying 9.0..so with weight and rating allowed for a good ground race of this class should be run approx 0.5 faster than standard..which makes the race 4.9 seconds slower than middle good ground..which makes the ground 110lb per mile slow

you could also argue that should be even higher as the race isn't the full 5f

I think anyone that makes speed figures on here rating a card at 110lb per mile slow would be calling it heavy ground...i know i couldn't call it much else

but as i said to Reet earlier..he fancied Camelot and thought the ground only good to soft..so i said bet accordingly then....each to their decisions this game isn't it?;)
 
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Aragorn said:
But did he really? Or was his rating wrong?

:D :ninja:
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It's one or the other, or somewhere in between. Interesting to see how Timeform and the official handicapper rate his Arc run in relation to their previous marks of 128 and 124.

I'd say he ran a long way short of what we've seen from him. Then again many did. Saonois really struggled.
 
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I backed Saonois but I was expecting him to either bolt up or get stuffed as he did. That was always an element of not knowing how good he was because of the races he'd run in. With Camelot we had more of an idea...
 
I was at Longchamp both days and noted that while there was mud on the front of the horses on Saturday, there wasn't any or much mud on them on Sunday which probably means the ground was sticky rather than loose.

I must say I enjoyed the racing on sunday, although some of the races lacked a little punch. Pity they put the Arabian race in the middle though. Surely one for the end of the card.
 
Camelot will in all likelihood go down as a run of the mill Derby winner and I expect Timeform to downgrade him again (at one point he was on 130 I believe)
That said he stays in training and it will be interesting to see how he does against Group 1 horses on a better surface as a 4yo.
 
Euronymous said:
Camelot will in all likelihood go down as a run of the mill Derby winner and I expect Timeform to downgrade him again (at one point he was on 130 I believe)
That said he stays in training and it will be interesting to see how he does against Group 1 horses on a better surface as a 4yo.
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By staying in training we'll hopefully get a chance to see what he can do. His rating is well below par for the Arc but it's unlikely that Timeform would want to downgrade his master rating on the basis of his Arc run (previous form would have to be in question for them to do that).
 
Cantoris said:
I was at Longchamp both days and noted that while there was mud on the front of the horses on Saturday, there wasn't any or much mud on them on Sunday which probably means the ground was sticky rather than loose.

I must say I enjoyed the racing on sunday, although some of the races lacked a little punch. Pity they put the Arabian race in the middle though. Surely one for the end of the card.
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Sticking the Arabian race in the middle is probably a small price to pay for the sponsorship money they're creaming in. Also, the race immediately after something as big as the Arc always gets lost in the shuffle anyway so they might as well stick it in that spot.
 
SteveM said:
By staying in training we'll hopefully get a chance to see what he can do. His rating is well below par for the Arc but it's unlikely that Timeform would want to downgrade his master rating on the basis of his Arc run (previous form would have to be in question for them to do that).
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They've downgraded him once of course and the form of the Derby has never picked up all year. The horses he beat at Epsom ran even worse in the Leger than he did.
 
Grey said:
I don't think yesterday's ground was merely soft, certainly not spongy soft. And just because conditions were difficult, and you get different results on it, doesn't make the form 'suspect'.
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I got sent a photo by text of a friend walking the course. They were pushing down on the turf with a foot which was causing water to well up and pool in the indent. That, imo, is past soft.
 
SteveM said:
By staying in training we'll hopefully get a chance to see what he can do. His rating is well below par for the Arc but it's unlikely that Timeform would want to downgrade his master rating on the basis of his Arc run (previous form would have to be in question for them to do that).
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the problem for him will be the weight for age allowance he will have next season:blink:
 
Euronymous said:
They've downgraded him once of course and the form of the Derby has never picked up all year. The horses he beat at Epsom ran even worse in the Leger than he did.
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He was dropped from 130 to 128 after the Leger to match the timefigure he recorded at Epsom. Would be surprised if they dropped him any further given that timefigure.
 
128 fits in with what they have SNA, Sea Moon and Cityscape on I suppose. I think they're all a little bit too high though.
 
Sea Moon and St Nicholas 2 or 3 ounds high
Cityscape at his best he has done that figure at least twice

Camelot is a for me a 122 and regressing
I think he should have been retired after the Leger.

cirrus is the one almost all the handicappers have underrated , on his conditions I rate him a proper 140 horse
 
I'm pretty certain the crowd on the inside spooks Orfevre and he runs towards them. In Japan they don't have crowds on the inside as the dirt track is nearly always on the inside of the turf track at most courses so he probably has never experienced seeing a wall of people and noise next to where he's racing (and of course, there was nobody there in the Foy).

He's clearly a quirky customer as they parade him and take him to post in a hood. Perhaps they should have left the hood on for the race.

I just have to pick myself up and move on after that final bit of analysis!
 
Euronymous said:
They've downgraded him once of course and the form of the Derby has never picked up all year. The horses he beat at Epsom ran even worse in the Leger than he did.
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If they ran worse than him, I doubt they would want to downgrade him a second time. He originally had a TF rating of 130+ or 130p, he is now on 128. Few ever reach this level.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
I'm pretty certain the crowd on the inside spooks Orfevre and he runs towards them. In Japan they don't have crowds on the inside as the dirt track is nearly always on the inside of the turf track at most courses so he probably has never experienced seeing a wall of people and noise next to where he's racing (and of course, there was nobody there in the Foy).

He's clearly a quirky customer as they parade him and take him to post in a hood. Perhaps they should have left the hood on for the race.

I just have to pick myself up and move on after that final bit of analysis!
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Taking nothing away from the fine performance of the winner I think you can count yourself a little unlucky. The effort of that burst of acceleration must have emptied his lungs.
 
EC1 said:
but as i said to Reet earlier..he fancied Camelot and thought the ground only good to soft
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I know you're complete strangers, but do try to stick to the truth occasionally, eh?
Racing Post have the timed ground as soft, btw.
 
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