Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
No worse a Group 3 than the July Cup was a Group 1 this year judging how **** The Cheka ran earlier today.
Aye - the next 3 home have done nothing since.:lol:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That Ortensia and Society Rock were placed on ground they hated sums the race up.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Bookies know the AOB fan boys will back him no matter what the price. A Ballydoyle horse in a big race is the Racing equivalent of the England football team. Mugs ahoy.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Orfevre 9/2 NRNB with Boyles.. Will he be bigger on the day?
Depends who you're seeing the price with. He's NRNB in some books, so consequently showing at a short price. He is also a 3yo with a leading chance though.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
But if he runs it is as an after thought. You look at the 3yos who win this race and it is those that are prepared for the race from early summer when they are generally put away. The trainer's poor record in the race has to be a factor as well. He bottoms his horses during a long hard summer and even his sole winner of the Arc won it without running to his best rating.
The problem with statements like this is that they are ludicrous. While I agree with Euro that he may be stretched given the long season he's had, the colt is well up to winning an Arc even with the strength in depth being with the older horses this time. Alleged won after losing in the Leger and there is no reason why Camelot couldn't do the same if he's recovered in time. The 3yos have it relatively easy in this race these days. 3yos can win it without running to their best. No doubt one of the 3yos will manage it again even given that the generation are being written off.
the campaign given to Camelot is not the one Alleged was given
Camelots form is really weak and a hard race in the Leger historically has not been the ideal preparation for an Arc winner,
finally Camelot is not trained by Vincent Obrien.
the wfa scale debate is too boring to be started out again here but I would be very surprised if a 3yo I see in the entries is good enough to beat Shareta, Danedream, Nathaniel , Snow Fairy, Orfevre, St Nicholas Abbey or even horses like No Risk At All, Reliable Man , Sea Moon if running or Meandre.
Maybe Camelot improves next season but on this years evidence he is a must lay to be placed.
Camelots form is really weak and a hard race in the Leger historically has not been the ideal preparation for an Arc winner,
finally Camelot is not trained by Vincent Obrien.
the wfa scale debate is too boring to be started out again here but I would be very surprised if a 3yo I see in the entries is good enough to beat Shareta, Danedream, Nathaniel , Snow Fairy, Orfevre, St Nicholas Abbey or even horses like No Risk At All, Reliable Man , Sea Moon if running or Meandre.
Maybe Camelot improves next season but on this years evidence he is a must lay to be placed.
You see my problem. I can only conclude that you have either not been paying attention this season or have a definition of form that I don’t understand. In six outings at two and three only one horse has beaten him and after winning three classics (usually acknowledged as the highest level of form for a 3yo) and finishing runner up in a fourth I say that your evaluation of his form as “really weak” undervalues him by some considerable margin.
The form is weak means:
has posted a a 125? in the weakest Derby in the last 20 years
the rest of the form struggles to top 120
and read this fact:
no horse beaten by him has gone on to win a gr1
he has faced 2 gr1 winners in his whole career, Power and French Fifteen
would have to check if he has faced any horse rated higher than 120 in the Official figures.
I dont mind he has won 3 classics
of the Arc contenders most of them would beat Born To Seas, Astrologys and Thoughts Worthys in a canter
has posted a a 125? in the weakest Derby in the last 20 years
the rest of the form struggles to top 120
and read this fact:
no horse beaten by him has gone on to win a gr1
he has faced 2 gr1 winners in his whole career, Power and French Fifteen
would have to check if he has faced any horse rated higher than 120 in the Official figures.
I dont mind he has won 3 classics
of the Arc contenders most of them would beat Born To Seas, Astrologys and Thoughts Worthys in a canter
I can only contend that any horse capable of running to 128 (his RPR and Timeform master rating) is "good enough" to be placed in not only this but pretty much any Arc.
To say he is not good enough to be placed seems a staggering undervaluation of the horse and/or a misunderstanding of what is required.
Whether or not he will be placed (or take part) is another thing (as I believe it is possible Euro has a point), but he is certainly good enough.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
Timeform rating would have him joint fourth in the race.
Behind Danedream, Snow Fairy and Nathaniel. And level with Sea Moon and St. Nicholas Abbey.
RPR would have him fourth in the race. Behind Danedream, Snow Fairy and Orfevre.
Behind Danedream, Snow Fairy and Nathaniel. And level with Sea Moon and St. Nicholas Abbey.
RPR would have him fourth in the race. Behind Danedream, Snow Fairy and Orfevre.
Nefertiti
At the Start
The Telegraph states today he's an unlikely runner however due to the fact he'll be carrying only 8st 11 being a 3yo. This makes it impossible for Joseph to ride................perhaps THAT'S why he's been backed into favourite?
Yes, Bar, but given he'd have the 3 year old allowance, where would Camelot finish if all those horses you mention ran to their ratings?
Seems unlikely to me that he'd run, not least because Joseph wouldn't be able to ride him. Wouldn't it be nice to see another jockey on him, but who would it be? Ryan Moore on Sea Moon (unlikely runner) or Snow Fairy, or would Frankie retain the ride? Soumi's on Orfevre - who might be available to ride Camelot? Somehow think it's unlikely that Seamie Heffernan would.
I agree with whoever said it'll be the Mooresbridge or Tattersall's before we see Camelot again.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The allowance is built into the ratings.
There is no chance of all the horses Bar mentioned running to their ratings. The history of the Arc is choc full of horses running below their best due to heavy summer campaigns.
The main reason for not having Camelot now is not what he's done earlier this eason (which is a case of winning classics pretty well against so so runners which makes conclusions tricky) but the way he looked last time, ordinary ride apart. He looked a bit flat. Is he suddenly going to be flying again this year? Doubt it
To be fair on the summer running issue, most recent winners have been fairly active it would be fair to say?
Maybe thats a little bit old hat now ?
Im still liking Danedream for this again
To be fair on the summer running issue, most recent winners have been fairly active it would be fair to say?
Maybe thats a little bit old hat now ?
Im still liking Danedream for this again
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Not really:
Danedream had a couple of facile wins (Agg 11L) prior to her Arc.
Workforce hadn't run since the King George.
Sea the Stars had a very busy campaign but had such a massive class advantage that he could afford to run half a stone below his best and still win
Zarkava had your typical Arc prep
Dylan Thomas also had a busy campaign but his renewal was poor and he also ran below his best form in winning the race.
Rail Link and Hurricane Run. See Zarkava
If you take a horse to the Arc without proper preparation for the race you won't win unless you have a class advantage or you luck out and get a really poor field against you.
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