Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

SlimChance said:
I do think the market will overact when Ryan Moore is confirmed as Camelot's jockey.
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Is there not a chance O'Brien will retain the ride? He did 8st 13 at Newmarket on Saturday in the Sun Chariot. 3yo colts carry 8st 11 in the Arc (unless I have that wrong).
 
trackside528 said:
Is there not a chance O'Brien will retain the ride? He did 8st 13 at Newmarket on Saturday in the Sun Chariot. 3yo colts carry 8st 11 in the Arc (unless I have that wrong).
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Yes if he gets in the sauna now and doesn't get out until October 7th.
 
No chance. Aiden said as much in Irish Examiner.
Interesting to see if they use Murtagh or Fallon. On the basis of jockeys for horses Fallon is the ideal man to wind the horse up for a run, the only man to win the Arc for Ballydoyle and to produce the magic on Hurricane Run for them. His Derby antics with Recital/Native Khan take getting over admittedly. A tour of Coolmore shortly after Epsom 2011 gave me the impression that Coolmore are finished with him.
Murtagh is the "secret weapon" and a gunfighter for hire. His Ballydoyle record, his Longchamp record and availabilty are in his favour. His ex employers need to swallow a little pride but are pragmatic above all.
Options of Moore riding C and Johnny on Sea Moon another possibility.
I suppose Barzalona is off limits....Pour Moi ou Non!
 
how foolish people are to have to ignore those top riders..just because they can't lose a bit of face...Murtagh is the man for the job..they just need to grow some and actually admit they need his services..he is a skilled rider...and a big race man...no brainer
 
SlimChance said:
I disagree to a certain degree. They kept Camelot on side in the Guineas. If they're top price it does mean the Mafia have not played with them.
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James Knight had a similar debate on Twitter with someone a while back. He had a whole list of Ballydoyle horses they were against which won and they kept on side that got beat.
 
EC1 said:
Steve..which bit of form would give Camelot a rating an a 0-140 scale of 128?

his best form on paper was beating Main Sequence..who can be no more than a 115 on a 0-140 scale.... by 5 lengths...at 1.5lb per length thats 123 max..his OHR is 124 which i wouldn't quibble with.

I know RPR's tend to be higher..but they shouldn't be unless there is good reason for them to be.. i can't see how any rating using 0-140 scale can give Camelot any better than a 124 and thats a generous rating even then

128 is not justified unless you can see something i can't
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Yes the Derby. RPR 128. Also Timeform Master rating is 128 (top-rated 3yo). Official rating 124. The point being whichever one you pick he has already reached the level of what is required to be placed in the Arc. He has already reached the level to have won some of them.

I’ve been back to 1995 and there is no Arc that an RPR of 128 would have not seen him placed in. Perhaps David J is best placed to confirm that a Timeform rating of 128 would have also seen him placed in pretty much any Arc during that period. An OR of 124 would do the same thing (the ORs are typically relatively a little lower than RPRs and Timeform). So if he runs to form he should go close. If he improves he’ll probably win.
 
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SteveM said:
Yes the Derby. RPR 128. Also Timeform Master rating is 128 (top-rated 3yo). Official rating 124. The point being whichever one you pick he has already reached the level of what is required to be placed in the Arc. He has already reached the level to have won some of them.
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Interesting as all this ratings stuff is, surely the more relevant question is whether Camelot will improve enough on what he has achieved to date to win an Arc. As Bar pointed out earlier in the thread, the majority of 3yo's don't actually improve on (or run to) their previous ratings in the race.

In reality, he has probably only had one chance to show his potential to date (at Epsom), and he ran out a pretty impressive winner. It isn't his fault that the 3yo's are a **** poor bunch. As such, he may have the scope to improve on that, though I would tend to agree with those who argue that he may have to improve a fair bit more than the official ratings suggest.

I'm not sure his preparation is conducive to expecting significant improvement either, as he was presumably trained to the minute for Doncaster. That said, the fact it looks like he is running may be a positive in itself; I think they have an awful lot to lose if he bombs out on Sunday.

Overall, I haven't a clue what to expect. What do you guys think?
 
trackside528 said:
Interesting as all this ratings stuff is, surely the more relevant question is whether Camelot will improve enough on what he has achieved to date to win an Arc. As Bar pointed out earlier in the thread, the majority of 3yo's don't actually improve on (or run to) their previous ratings in the race.

In reality, he has probably only had one chance to show his potential to date (at Epsom), and he ran out a pretty impressive winner. It isn't his fault that the 3yo's are a **** poor bunch. As such, he may have the scope to improve on that, though I would tend to agree with those who argue that he may have to improve a fair bit more than the official ratings suggest.

I'm not sure his preparation is conducive to expecting significant improvement either, as he was presumably trained to the minute for Doncaster. That said, the fact it looks like he is running may be a positive in itself; I think they have an awful lot to lose if he bombs out on Sunday.

Overall, I haven't a clue what to expect. What do you guys think?
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Pretty much agree with all of this, as it's one of the few balanced views I've seen on the whole subject. Not so sure it looks like he's running though, as we've been there so many times before with Coolmore horses, but - if he does - it has to be seen as a positive.
Certainly imo, has the profile of a high class, improving horse right up until the Leger (though some see it differently). but the deafening silence from his stable since suggests they're as in the dark as we all are for what has to be viewed as a poor run.
If he does run, I wouldn't have him out of the first 3, though the only certainty is - were he to win - some on here would still find reason to crab him.
 
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He looked a decent animal when winning the Derby but that run on 'orrible ground at the Curragh may have taken a lot out of him, certainly didn't run up to expectations at Doncaster.

If the field for the Arc is up to its normal standard it would be difficult to see him winning but the opposition seems to be falling away and it might not take a lot of winning this year (comparatively speaking, of course).
 
Camelot is the only potential danger I see to the favourite Orfevre. I think it's easy enough to be confident how good (or not) the rest of the field are, and I think Orfevre clearly has their beating. What we don't know for sure, is how good Camelot is. He looked potentially very good in the Derby, and even if he's not yet gone on and shown himself to be a 130+ horse, the style, and time of that race suggested it wouldn't surprise if he did.
 
If Moore is back ( and he is due to ride at Nottingham on Wed ) then he will be on Sea Moon . If he isn't it would mean he is going to Ballydoyle next year. If he doesn't ride Sea Moon then I imagine Hughes will as he rode the horse to win the Voltigeur and has become Sir M's replacement of choice since Moore has been injured.
 
trackside528 said:
Interesting as all this ratings stuff is, surely the more relevant question is whether Camelot will improve enough on what he has achieved to date to win an Arc.
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The point is he is already good enough to win some Arcs and to be placed in virtually all of them. It wouldn't take much of an improvement to be sure of it. And the younger less exposed horses do tend to improve relative to the older more exposed types. This doesn't mean that Camelot will necessarily improve but he has a better chance than the older horses of improvement.
 
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But wasn't the point made that by your original reasoning he'd finish fourth? The loss of Danedream and Snow Fairy has probably rendered it moot but your original point was self defeating.
 
Orfevre would be an absolute certainty for this if it weren't for his "quirks". Reminds me of an ex girlfriend who in our all too infrequent meetings,I didn't know whether she was going to ride the ears off me or beat the ears off me.

I've topped up on Orfevre.
 
This is getting exciting for Orfevre's backers now. Nathaniel seems to miss the race too.
 
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Yep Nathaniel is out. If there was cut, he'd have been a mighty player. Hope he runs again.
 
Orfevre doesn't even need to run to form to win this now.

However, the bet at this stage is Imperial Monarch at 16 NRNB with Paddys and Boyles.
 
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