Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

Euronymous said:
The problem with Novellist, like suny hinted at, is that his Ascot run if we are to believe the TF figure of around 130 is too much of an outlier in his overall profile.
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My initial thoughts too, Euro - just that I've figured the reason for it. :)
 
I rate novellist 127, reading the form maybe too positively.

Cirrus is not the same horse he was and the ground was firmer than firm
Hillstar has not shown nothing of gr1 before or after
Trading leather is overrated on anything more than 120 , pulled hard on the day and finished realatively close seeing the race was run so fast and he was in the worst position.


Novellist was trained to be spot on in the king George and I prefer a horse with a summer break for the Arc.


I dont see him beating the japanesse horses but could still beat Treve.:lol:
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Not to mention Kizuna's turn of foot which left ROTW looking like Leading Light in the closing stages. :lol:

In all seriousness, I've watched the Niel back and ROTW wasn't in any way unlucky on the head on. He was just too slow to go through the gap that was there.
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:confused:

Don't see it myself. 50yds past the line ROTW would have been a clear winner. Anyone can see that from the side on shot.
 
Aragorn said:
:confused:

Don't see it myself. 50yds past the line ROTW would have been a clear winner. Anyone can see that from the side on shot.
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Unfortunately the Arc isn't 50 yards further than the trial. Also I don't see what relevance that has in any way mainly as races are won at the line but more importantly in this case, Take was so soft on Kizuna he eased off immediately as they get there. As I say, the head on tells you a lot more and if ROTW was too slow to go through the gaps in the Niel, he's really going to struggle in the Arc. They should be 6/1 and 16/1 not 8/1 and 10/1 and they would be if you swapped the trainers names.

On the Novellist point, lets not forget the King George was only his tenth run and he had won 8 of them! He still has improvement in him and ran to a figure good enough to win a lot of Arcs according to multiple ratings organisations who are better at this sort of thing than us lot.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Unfortunately the Arc isn't 50 yards further than the trial. Also I don't see what relevance that has in any way mainly as races are won at the line but more importantly in this case, Take was so soft on Kizuna he eased off immediately as they get there. As I say, the head on tells you a lot more and if ROTW was too slow to go through the gaps in the Niel, he's really going to struggle in the Arc. They should be 6/1 and 16/1 not 8/1 and 10/1 and they would be if you swapped the trainers names.

On the Novellist point, lets not forget the King George was only his tenth run and he had won 8 of them! He still has improvement in him and ran to a figure good enough to win a lot of Arcs according to multiple ratings organisations who are better at this sort of thing than us lot.
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About Ruler I agree

Novellist not so sure he will improve,
in fact I think he is much more likely to run to 121 or 122 than 130


about the ratings organisations
I prefer my figures, if that was not the case I would not waste my time doing them
 
Surely the answer to the Arc lies with how well the jockey steers Orfevre? He looks in a different league to the others and if Christophe Soumillon gets it right it will take one helluva horse to beat him.

Novellist is an obvious candidate but The King George form doesn't exactly inspire and Dunedan who he beat in his previous race is well below top class.

Unless something is hiding in a bushell this looks like the fav's to lose
 
Tanlic said:
Surely the answer to the Arc lies with how well the jockey steers Orfevre? He looks in a different league to the others and if Christophe Soumillon gets it right it will take one helluva horse to beat him.

Novellist is an obvious candidate but The King George form doesn't exactly inspire and Dunedan who he beat in his previous race is well below top class.
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Dunaden is an interesting marker though. It's safe to say he didn't run too far behind the best of his ability that day at St Cloud (whereas he clearly did run below form in the Foy). The same could be said for his run in the Sheema Classic when he finished 2.5L behind Gentildonna who beat Orfevre a nose in the Japan Cup.

Therefore, on what is a slightly convoluted approach (as these things always are to some extent), Orfevre could be described about 2L superior to Novellist on those runs. However, Novellist has since posted a significantly improved effort since he beat Dunaden at St Cloud whereas Orfevre has not ran to his Japan Cup form this term at all.

There are many ways you can look at it but you're a very brave man taking 7/2 about Orfevre when there is very close (more recent) form knocking about at around double the price.
 
Tanlic said:
Surely the answer to the Arc lies with how well the jockey steers Orfevre? He looks in a different league to the others and if Christophe Soumillon gets it right it will take one helluva horse to beat him.

Novellist is an obvious candidate but The King George form doesn't exactly inspire and Dunedan who he beat in his previous race is well below top class.

Unless something is hiding in a bushell this looks like the fav's to lose
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treve looks pretty good
 
Gamla Stan said:
Unfortunately the Arc isn't 50 yards further than the trial. Also I don't see what relevance that has in any way mainly as races are won at the line but more importantly in this case, Take was so soft on Kizuna he eased off immediately as they get there. As I say, the head on tells you a lot more and if ROTW was too slow to go through the gaps in the Niel, he's really going to struggle in the Arc. They should be 6/1 and 16/1 not 8/1 and 10/1 and they would be if you swapped the trainers names.

On the Novellist point, lets not forget the King George was only his tenth run and he had won 8 of them! He still has improvement in him and ran to a figure good enough to win a lot of Arcs according to multiple ratings organisations who are better at this sort of thing than us lot.
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It's relevant as you're convinced he didn't get checked. IMHO he was checked in his running and with a clearer run would have won quite comfortably. It's a game of opinions though so we'll hopefully find out which is right. Either way they both have Treve and Orfevre to beat.
 
Gamla Stan said:
On the Novellist point, lets not forget the King George was only his tenth run and he had won 8 of them! He still has improvement in him and ran to a figure good enough to win a lot of Arcs according to multiple ratings organisations who are better at this sort of thing than us lot.
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If Novellist has any improvement in him, it will only be over a stiffer test than the Arc normally provides.
Any ratings agency that accords a highly consistent horse a sudden surge in its rating without reasonable explanation, or fails to give due account to its previous profile, is liable to overrate - and there are countless examples of the majority of them repeating the error frequently.
 
Aragorn said:
It's relevant as you're convinced he didn't get checked. IMHO he was checked in his running and with a clearer run would have won quite comfortably. It's a game of opinions though so we'll hopefully find out which is right. Either way they both have Treve and Orfevre to beat.
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Have you watched the head on?
 
Intello wins in a hack canter more or less. Still, couldn't have him for the Arc at around 10/1, was always going to shorten up.
 
1Orfevre. Gr1 M/H C. Soumillon
2Kizuna. gr1 H Y. Take
3Treve. Gr1 H F. Dettori
4Novellist. Gr1 P/M J. Murtagh
5Flintshire Gr1 M M. Guyon
6The fugue. Gr1 H W. Buick
7Al Kazeen. Gr1 P J. Doyle
8Intello. Gr1 H Peslier
9Ruler of the world. Gr1. H R. Moore
10Ocovango. Gr2. M PC Boudot
11 Penglai Pavilium list L/P M. Barzalona


Possibles
12Leading light Gr1 P/M S. Heeferman
13Camelot. Gr1 M J. Obrien
14Trading leather Gr1 P/L K. Manning

a pair of japanesse pacemakers
I think it will be 15 runners race.


weather forecast
http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-FRXX0076:1:FR


so looks good or good to soft


Favourites:Orfevre (3), Treve (9/2), Novellist (13/2), Kizuna (8), Flintshire (12), Intello(12), Ruler Of The World (12)out, Al Kazeem (16), The Fugue (20), Leading Light(25), Manndawi (25), Ocovango (25)
 
Nr Race Discipline Distance Category Information Betting offer Prz. Departure time Photograph Video Jockey
1 P/ 1047-QATAR PRIX DE L'ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP P (2 & +) 1000 GR.I - Premium - 350.000 13h45
2 P/ 1048-TOTAL PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC - CRITERIUM DES POULICHES P (2 ans) 1600 GR.I - Premium - 300.000 14h20
3 P/ 1049-QATAR PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE (GRAND CRITERIUM) P (2 ans) 1400 GR.I - Premium - 350.000 14h55
4 P/ 1051-PRIX DE L'OPERA LONGINES P (3 & +) 2000 GR.I Pari complexe 400.000 15h30
5 P/ 474-QATAR PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE P (3 & +) 2400 GR.I Pari complexe 4.800.000 16h15
6 P/ 1050-QATAR ARABIAN WORLD CUP SPONSORISEE PAR QATAR PETROLEUM INTERN P (4 & +) 2000 GR.I PA - Premium - 700.000 17h00
7 P/ 1052-QATAR PRIX DE LA FORET P (3 & +) 1400 GR.I - Premium - 300.000 17h40
8 P/ 1053-QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN P (4 & +) 4000 GR.I - Premium - 300.000 18h10
9 P/ 1054-QATAR GRAND HANDICAP DES MILERS P (3 & +) 1600 HAND. Crse.B Pari complexe 70.000 18h40
 
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