Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

Gareth Flynn said:
The official handicappers would agree with you on Trading Leather and Al Kazeem (and to an extent Parish Hall), Euro.

(I'm not sure that's a good thing!)

No way has The Fugue run below form to win an Irish Champion against those horses, though.
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I rate 119+ for the York win
Also took a positive view of the irish champion and rates The Fugue 118+ for his win. It was the worst irish champion I can remember .
 
Euronymous said:
He's a trading bet tops. Won't stay well enough in this company.
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For me, he'll be well suited by the step up in trip. The ground should be perfect for him, too. There's a question mark over him being at his best at this stage of the season but if he gives his running he has a very decent chance.
 
I think Al Kazeem has a poor chance

hard campaign
past of injuries
and more importantly he is not good enough and I dont see possible improvement is a short term.
place lay for me
 
Good read. I remember the Jockey Club stakes Doyle is referring to, Al Kazeem made a real impression on me that day. He revelled in the conditions.

If it came up soft I think it will enhance his chances.

Having said that the Market has it about right. Treve and Orfevre look the most likely winners to me. Ruler of the world's turn of foot makes him dangerous as well. Shaping up to be a cracker, wish I was going!
 
Timeform has raised the figures of all the horses in the world by 5 pounds in the last year with 2 exceptions Orfevre and Franekl

How someone can rate toronado 132 ,novellist 132 the fugue 128 and Treve 129p and have Orefvre on 130, someone has lost the head in timeform office.
 
Aragorn said:
Ruler of the world's turn of foot makes him dangerous as well
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Not to mention Kizuna's turn of foot which left ROTW looking like Leading Light in the closing stages. :lol:

In all seriousness, I've watched the Niel back and ROTW wasn't in any way unlucky on the head on. He was just too slow to go through the gap that was there.
 
sunybay said:
How someone can rate toronado 132 ,novellist 132 the fugue 128 and Treve 129p and have Orefvre on 130, someone has lost the head in timeform office.
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When Novellist finishes midfield in the Arc I would expect a more realistic figure to emerge.

They have Monterosso on 128 as well.

It is possible more sensible marks will be the order of the day after the season has finished. The jumps section seems much more settled in reality.
 
Well as it happens there is a useful common dominator in both races. Red Cadeaux.

Beaten 14 lengths by Novelist (at home of course) and 6 lengths by Offal in Japan (away from home of course)

Now of course its not as simple as that and here come the excuses but....
 
I have Novelist on 127 for the king George
His 3 previous best were 121, 121 and 122

Orfevre has hit in my figures
128 once
129 3 times
131 twice

126 once
125 twice

In a normal day orfevre has novellist for breakfast
 
Bar the Bull said:
Tell me a piece of Orfevre form superior to Novellist's King George.
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Even if you don't agree with Timeform, both the RP and IFHA have the following figures for the two horses:

Orfevre Japan Cup
RP: 129
IFHA: 125

Novellist King George
RP: 127
IFHA: 128

There is very little in it but Novellist has run to his rating much more recently than Orfevre and as already discussed, showed that he hadn't even reached the ceiling of his ability with that Ascot performance (sectionals show this). He arguably can improve again which can't really be said for Orfevre.

You want sectioning if you take 7/2 Orfevre in this renewal.
 
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Good points. Isn't also the case that monsuns have improved nicely with age too? Manduro?
 
Is Gentildonna still in training? Would be nice to see her come close to emulating that Japan Cup win where she seems to have been rated miles ahead of anything else she's done. Ran well in Dubai but she couldn't land a blow on St Nicholas Abbey who is well exposed.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Is Gentildonna still in training?
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Yes, Japan Cup the target.

Combination of ride and going to Dubai without a prep didn't help.

The best horse in Japan isn't running in the Arc this year (Wins 2014 renewal) and hasn't even been mentioned yet:

sp20121022a1a.jpg
 
Gamla Stan said:
Even if you don't agree with Timeform, both the RP and IFHA have the following figures for the two horses:

Orfevre Japan Cup
RP: 129
IFHA: 125

Novellist King George
RP: 127
IFHA: 128

There is very little in it but Novellist has run to his rating much more recently than Orfevre and as already discussed, showed that he hadn't even reached the ceiling of his ability with that Ascot performance (sectionals show this). He arguably can improve again which can't really be said for Orfevre.

You want sectioning if you take 7/2 Orfevre in this renewal.
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All the 'sectionals' (if splitting a race into a 9f and a 3f part is even worthy of the title) show is that Novellist can keep going in a strongly run race over a stiff 12f track. Nowhere in his form is there any indication he has the tactical speed necessary to win any normal Arc.
As Euro says, he is overrated...
 
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I dont get this. Is the arc some 4 runner cat and mouse affair? Have i missed something??

Reet. You make ascot sound like Ben nevis. Its not that stiff. Maybe geography or whatever will prove otherwise but its hardly like the finish at Sandown or Ripon

Maybe its just me but ive never looked at ascot runners at thought that they need to get that much further
 
The problem with Novellist, like suny hinted at, is that his Ascot run if we are to believe the TF figure of around 130 is too much of an outlier in his overall profile.
 
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