Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

sunybay said:
14 field, good or gs
Orfevre. Evens
Kizuna 5/1
Novelist. 8/1
Ruler of the world. 9/1
Flintshire. 10/1
Treve. 12/1
The fugue. 14/1
Camelot. 40/1
50/1 bar

Ew 123. 1/5

Al Kazeen and intello non runners
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You could be bankrupt after this race if I could play those odds.
Orfevre at evens is laughable as is Treve at 12/1. Kizuna with the human handbrake Y. Take is any price you want.
I'd back up a Brinks armor truck to unload on Treve at those prices.
 
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sunybay said:
As a curiosity
You have 1000points
How would You split the points to make me bankrupted.
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Assuming a 1000 points would bankrupt you as I stated belatedly above I'd go all in on Treve at those prices.
I'd fear Flintshire on fast ground and Novellist
 
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Offering your own odds is only an exercise in theory. In the real world I'd only go a point or two longer about Novellist if I was actually laying.
 
Considering what she did in Ireland and in the Yorkshire Oaks The Fugue seems to be the forgotten horse of the race - I imagine because a wet autumn is being expected after soft ground on Saturday .
 
Ardross said:
Considering what she did in Ireland and in the Yorkshire Oaks The Fugue seems to be the forgotten horse of the race - I imagine because a wet autumn is being expected after soft ground on Saturday .
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It's already turned into Winter in Paris and don't get the impression we will have a nice Autumn..
 
Timeform ratings for the race
Novellist. 132
Treve. 132p
The Fugue. 131
Orfevre. 130
Ruler of the world 127+
Kizuna 126+
Intello. 126
Camelot. 125
Trading leather. 124
Flintshire 123
Morandi. 122
Leading light. 121
Ocovango 120
 
131 for The Fugue is ******* mental. I'm sure they just look at the lengths add on Group 1 race and come out with that, like they have a big ******* abacus in the office.
Did they even take into account Parish Hall being only 7L behind her.
 
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So they're basically saying you'd need to be a 134+ beast to beat The Fugue over a mile and a half. Unfuckingbelievable. She's a 124 filly tops.
 
For the Irish Champion, Timeform went (previous bests in parentheses):

128 The Fugue (126 Yorkshire Oaks '13, 120 Yorkshire Oaks '12)
128 Al Kazeem (128 Eclipse, 127 Tattersalls & Prince of Wales's)
124 Trading Leather (124 Juddmonte, 122 Irish Derby & King George)
115 Parish Hall (117 Dewhurst '11, 116 Alleged)
66 Euphrasia (105 Blue Wind)
--- Kingsbarns

Poundage was ~2.25 lbs/length
 
sunybay said:
Timeform ratings for the race
Novellist. 132
Treve. 132p
The Fugue. 131
Orfevre. 130
Ruler of the world 127+
Kizuna 126+
Intello. 126
Camelot. 125
Trading leather. 124
Flintshire 123
Morandi. 122
Leading light. 121
Ocovango 120
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Treve and The Fugue are not rated 132p and 131. They are 129p and 128.
 
Suny added on the fillies' allowance.

I think Timeform give 1lb extra than the official WFA for the Arc though?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
For the Irish Champion, Timeform went (previous bests in parentheses):

128 The Fugue (126 Yorkshire Oaks '13, 120 Yorkshire Oaks '12)
128 Al Kazeem (128 Eclipse, 127 Tattersalls & Prince of Wales's)
124 Trading Leather (124 Juddmonte, 122 Irish Derby & King George)
115 Parish Hall (117 Dewhurst '11, 116 Alleged)
66 Euphrasia (105 Blue Wind)
--- Kingsbarns

Poundage was ~2.25 lbs/length
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For the life of me I cannot see how in a million years they have Al Kazeem running to 128 in that race. And Trading Leather is a 120 horse tops. I would argue that The Fugue won the IC actually running below her best.
 
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The official handicappers would agree with you on Trading Leather and Al Kazeem (and to an extent Parish Hall), Euro.

(I'm not sure that's a good thing!)

No way has The Fugue run below form to win an Irish Champion against those horses, though.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
No way has The Fugue run below form to win an Irish Champion against those horses, though.
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124 The Fugue (126 best)
124 AK (127 best)
120 TL (120 best)
111 Parish Hall (111 best)






Gutting news about Intello. Champion Stakes was there for the taking. Poor decision.
 
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