Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

The more I think about it, the ground must be at least good. It hasn't really rained here that much recently, and whilst 2 weeks ago it looked like Winter had come early, the last 2 weeks has been nice and you can walk around at night in a t shirt more or less).

If you look at Flintshire - on a line through Ocovango, he has form well in excess of ROTW and Kizuna (I realise the Niel was only a trial) and he looked a superstar in the making in the GP de Paris. IF the ground is good or better, I make him a 5 or 6/1 shot. A horse who looked so good 2 runs back can surely be forgiven a (not all that bad) run in soft ground?
 
Hamm said:
The more I think about it, the ground must be at least good. It hasn't really rained here that much recently, and whilst 2 weeks ago it looked like Winter had come early, the last 2 weeks has been nice and you can walk around at night in a t shirt more or less).

If you look at Flintshire - on a line through Ocovango, he has form well in excess of ROTW and Kizuna (I realise the Niel was only a trial) and he looked a superstar in the making in the GP de Paris. IF the ground is good or better, I make him a 5 or 6/1 shot. A horse who looked so good 2 runs back can surely be forgiven a (not all that bad) run in soft ground?
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You wouldn't say no to a match bet with Ruler of the World would you?

Not sure his form is "in excess" of ROTW & Kizuna though. The GP De Paris looks no less and no more than than either the Japanese or Epsom Derby although the latter is probably a smidge below both.

Rain has disappeared from the forecast and it will be fast side of good which will suit Flintshire but Kizuna's best performances have also come on a quick surface so he could also could be an even better horse on the ground.

Fascinating race.
 
Gamla Stan said:
You wouldn't say no to a match bet with Ruler of the World would you?

Not sure his form is "in excess" of ROTW & Kizuna though. The GP De Paris looks no less and no more than than either the Japanese or Epsom Derby although the latter is probably a smidge below both.

Rain has disappeared from the forecast and it will be fast side of good which will suit Flintshire but Kizuna's best performances have also come on a quick surface so he could also could be an even better horse on the ground.

Fascinating race.
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If Fast side of good, surely you would say Flintshire overpriced at 14s? E/W.

If there are indeed 19 runners, Treve would need to be a combination of Sea the Stars and Zarkava to win coming from quite far back.
 
I don't have a strong view, I've made my bed with Kizuna at 28 and Novellist at 6 and I'm pretty much happy there now with the exception of a possible bet on Al Kazeem on the tote place market and a possible EW bet on Penglai Pavilion who was held in very high regard earlier in the season I seem to recall.

Flintshire is 20 on Betfair which is a bit big I agree but I just genuinely see it very very hard for him to reverse the form with Kizuna who also wanted a quick surface yet handled the soft ground very well. It's a cliché but it is a mark of a great horse when they can handle unsuitable ground and still win.
 
It's between Flintshire, Orfevre and Kizuna if the ground stays fast.

Disappointed they have pulled Camelot out. To me their operation this year has been the racing equivalent of a Man City. Loads of money but little expertise. Wtf have they done with Magician??
 
Gamla Stan said:
I don't have a strong view, I've made my bed with Kizuna at 28 and Novellist at 6 and I'm pretty much happy there now with the exception of a possible bet on Al Kazeem on the tote place market and a possible EW bet on Penglai Pavilion who was held in very high regard earlier in the season I seem to recall.

Flintshire is 20 on Betfair which is a bit big I agree but I just genuinely see it very very hard for him to reverse the form with Kizuna who also wanted a quick surface yet handled the soft ground very well. It's a cliché but it is a mark of a great horse when they can handle unsuitable ground and still win.
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Peintre célèbre?
 
Gamla Stan said:
Flintshire is 20 on Betfair which is a bit big I agree but I just genuinely see it very very hard for him to reverse the form with Kizuna who also wanted a quick surface yet handled the soft ground very well. It's a cliché but it is a mark of a great horse when they can handle unsuitable ground and still win.
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Makes sense, but I think it's dangerous to take trial form too literally, especially when the participants are Group 1 animals.
 
according to Mordin in the weekender - over the last 25 years 60 horses that failed to win the Arc also failed when they tried again

Orfevre a lay then;)
 
Tony Bin was runner up in 1987 prior to winning in 1988. Maybe it is time for a follow up.
Queens Vase not great as an indicator either; Levmoss was 4th in QV in 68 before winning Arc in 69 though he was the only horse in the field to have defeated Park Top previously.
 
EC1 said:
according to Mordin in the weekender - over the last 25 years 60 horses that failed to win the Arc also failed when they tried again

Orfevre a lay then;)
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Like all stats it bears looking at more closely.

A lot, probably the majority,of animals concerned would have been 4yos who tackled the race as 3yos - if a horse can't win the race at that age with all their advantages (classic campaign, rested for the race, slightly favourable wfa) they ain't gonna win it at 4 or 5.)

Most of the really good 3 and 4yos are packed off to stud before they reach five. Orfevre hasn't been so doesn't fit that profile.



The record of 5yos who got beat at 4 is actually not that bad. Tony Bin was successful and although Pilsudski wasn't he ran into the best winner of the race since Dancing Brave. Youmzain also performed right to his best when runner up as a 5yo after finishing behind Dylan Thomas the year before.
 
Come on guys, whatever you think of Orfevre's chance, surely it depends on far more relevant stuff than what Tony Bin did, or High Chaparral or Pilsudski etc.
 
Anyone that starts a sentence with the words 'Nick Mordin' means the post can easily be glossed over..
 
Orfevre doesnt look a trends horse


about this week, surprising how much money on Novellist when you will have a better price on sunday in the pmu
 
EC1 said:
according to Mordin in the weekender - over the last 25 years 60 horses that failed to win the Arc also failed when they tried again

Orfevre a lay then;)
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He also says Orfevre should be seen as an exception to the trend...
 
The draw

Draw_zpsf7f08da5.jpg
 
The rain must be a huge negative for Flintshire, Kizuna etc. The Fugue a non runner.

A positive for Novelist and Ocovango.

Meant to be raining today and tomorrow too.
 
Hamm said:
The rain must be a huge negative for Flintshire, Kizuna etc. The Fugue a non runner.

A positive for Novelist and Ocovango.

Meant to be raining today and tomorrow too.
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Backed Novellist earlier in the week on the strength of a poor forecast. Fortunately, it proved more accurate than the soothsayers of this forum :)
It might be worth noting that Orfevre has an impeccable record with cut, and looks likely to be the main danger.
 
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