Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

Hamm said:
The rain must be a huge negative for Flintshire, Kizuna etc. The Fugue a non runner.

A positive for Novelist and Ocovango.

Meant to be raining today and tomorrow too.
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Accuweather only forecast 3mm today and tomorrow and they apparently got 8mm last night. If they haven't watered earlier this week and it's dry on Sat night/Sunday, it'll be good ground I reckon.

Novellist goes on any ground IMO.

Draw no bad thing for Treve, would rather be there than in traps 1-5 if I was on her.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Novellist goes on any ground IMO.
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If we are to believe the ratings and he is a near 130 creature that King George run was 5/6lbs better than anything he's done before. This suggests he either is better on fast ground than or that the KG has been overrated.
 
Euronymous said:
If we are to believe the ratings and he is a near 130 creature that King George run was 5/6lbs better than anything he's done before. This suggests he either is better on fast ground than or that the KG has been overrated.
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Or, he was (and potentially still is) on an upward curve in only his tenth race having raced only once as a two year old.
 
He clearly does act on fast ground, but a quick ground Arc would be below his effective stamina range. He was fortunate that the strong pace and stiff Ascot track ameliorated this propensity.
Hopefully, there'll be enough rain to similarly insure his luck carries over to Longchamp.
 
I do not really understand why Orfevre is a relatively short priced favourite . Although he was visually impressive in last year's Arc it was a weak renewal and I should be surprised if Solemnia would have been good enough to be in the frame tomorrow .

He may still have potential that justifies that price but not the form .
 
trends points

68 FLINTSHIRE
64 RULER OF THE WORLD
63 KIZUNA
63 TREVE
62 INTELLO
62 LEADING LIGHT
61 ORFEVRE
47 AL KAZEEM
45 GOING SOMEWHERE
45 PENGLAI PAVILION
42 MEANDRE
37 JOSHUA TREE
36 VERY NICE NAME
36 PIRIKA
29 OCOVANGO
10 SAHAWAR
9 HAYA LANDA
 
Euronymous said:
Presumably on the back of Workforce and Sea the Stars victories. Both those Derby winners actually ran below their very best form at Longchamp.
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not really done like that..the points are 9 separate trends weighted for importance

its a really tight race on the old trends..but i'll be backing Flintshire as my record of backing the winner based on form is just Workforce this century
 
Might sound like a patriotic bet only but AK has conditions and trip at last and if lengthy season hasnt impacted then 16/1 is too big i think . I like the way he battles too. Good for this race

Treve also has a rotten draw but they seem to think this one is a bit special dont they? Loved what ive seen of her
 
Arc is very difficult, too many form lines that its difficult to compare. It's between Orfevre, Treve and ROTW/Kizuna but I'm sitting on the fence and enjoying the show!
 
I haven't been able to study the form but the one thing that strikes me - wrongly perhaps - is that this might be the easiest Arc to predict for some time.

The 3yo form is moderate across Europe this year so Kizuna might be the best of them but there's no strong evidence that he's significantly better.

Orfevre really should be going for a repeat win, having been the best horse in the race last year and with a much kinder draw this time. Soumi will be out to win pointing to his arse, probably figuratively now that's he's matured a bit.

I suspect the 11/4 might look very generous as he passes the line.
 
Does anyone have a link to an online stream of channel 4 or whoeever else is showing this? Thanks
 
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