QM Champion Chase betting

TheBear said:
Just been watching some replays of past years. Who's for bringing back that fence at the bottom of the hill? I know it's to do with safety but it had great drama.
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The 2nd last was a deathtrap for tired horses unable to control their momentum. There's no way on earth will they put it back there......should never have been put there in the first place.
 
clivex said:
Without being picky I can't al ferof in this
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I've long suspected that there is something of the night about Clive, but within 48 hours of his denunciation of Al Ferof the poor horse is struck down with a mystery ailment that sees him trying to fly, and has been ruled out for the season. Trainer Paul Nicholls was left flabbergasted saying "he went to sleep as normal last night but has woken up this morning and thinks he's a goose. Something dark is at play in these parts I tell ye"

I suppose we're entering the window soon when we start to see 'a fancy a day' fall by the way side
 
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Thanks for that, DG.

I mentioned a horse some time back that I thought might have a place squeak in this but there was no sign of an entry. With doubts about SS and SDG, it's squeaking a little more loudly now that it is entered.

I'd have been all over the 150/1 like a rash if those bookies were going NRNB but the wusses aren't, so I've had to settle for the 100/1 with one of those who are, just to small stakes, mind.

Croco Bay.

Check it out.
 
Did you rate the Special Tiara race at Kempton over Christmas DO? And if so I'd be interested in that rating to any you hold previously.
 
Bear in mind, Maruco, ST was getting weight that day and might have got it slightly easy out in front. Nevertheless, I have him on 164+ for that via Balder Succes (162).

If Balder Succes was better next time - possible - there might be a tenuous argument for raising ST a wee bit.

My previous figure for ST was 157? which went back a wee bit.
 
Special Tiara needs an uncontested lead-I can remember HDB saying he takes a lot out of himself-he probably cost Sizing Europe a place last year by taking him on from a long way out.It isn't out of the question that he will get placed.
 
Thanks Mo. I have him as a big improver this season and a good each way bet with doubts about the front two. Your rating confirms that view.

I agree with that Luke, but I see him having the lead to himself this time which will help. He could well find out any lack of jumping sharpness with Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy as a consequence. And if he has improved as much as I suspect he has he may prove difficult to peg back.
 
Having the lead to himself may be a problem with Champagne Fever and Hidden Cyclone in the field, flatter tracks may suit him better but would not for a minute second guess De Bromhead who will have him trained to the minute.
 
Ruby is sensible enough not to get into a battle. He made that mistake in the famous Brave Inca/Hardy Eustace Champion Hurdle and he won't do it again.

Hidden Cyclone maybe, but he doesn't need to to lead, and arguably his better performances have been when he's just behind the pace. McNamara only tends to go from the front if he can get an uncontested lead anyway.
 
Indeed Maruco; well said.
Ruby's horse best controlling the race to make a dog fight of it like the last three years .
Anyway the next entry date is March 5.
For my (one and only) "fan " Marble I propose we preview the race in essay style format as we did Epsom Derby 2013.
This race nearly has a poster for every runner as it from Fonz (Simply Ned) to Euronymous (CF) to yourself Maruco with Special Tiara as it is .
Uniquely this year the race has the possibility of being wide open and it may add to the enjoyment to have a little creative fun along the way.
What about it folks ?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks for that, DG.

I mentioned a horse some time back that I thought might have a place squeak in this but there was no sign of an entry. With doubts about SS and SDG, it's squeaking a little more loudly now that it is entered.

I'd have been all over the 150/1 like a rash if those bookies were going NRNB but the wusses aren't, so I've had to settle for the 100/1 with one of those who are, just to small stakes, mind.

Croco Bay.

Check it out.
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Croco Bay runs tomorrow at Wincanton.

It's off a near-three-month break but I'll be disappointed if it can't overcome that absence off 149. If it's as good as I think it might be able to win pretty comfortably and justify its entry in the big one. If it does the chances are its odds will halve.

I nibbled the 300+ to the small stakes available at Betfair last night. Hopefully, I might end up with a nice little bet to nothing :p
 
I hope he doesn't win comfortably and he's only out for spin, as he's on my shortlist for the Grand Annual. He's likely to go off at a much better price than the others I'm looking at, and off his current mark he tops my list.
 
I don't know what indications we've had prior to today but connections today are very much swaying towards the Champion Chase for Champagne Fever.
 
I just watched Champagne Fever's run in the King George.

I worry if he would have enough speed, when travelling within his own comfort zone, to shake off a crack 2 miler these days.

I get the impression Ruby wanted to lead at Kempton, even half tried to a couple of times, but was conscious of the fact he might not get the trip if using up too much energy to early.

So not wishing to bustle him up and force the issue he decided to let the horse travel within his comfort zone which would be the correct thing to do under the cicumstances.

My question about him is if I am correct and the horse was travelling within his comfort zone is that fast enough to take Dodging Bullets Sprinter Sacre or Sire De Grugy out of their comfort zones?

I'd like to think it isn't and all he will do is set the race up for them

Being only 2 miles he could throw caution to the wind and just go for it, but if he did that he would be highly likely to slow dramatically late on and be a sitting target for something.

The Ricci's may want to run him but I think they will be making the wrong decision if they go for the QMCC. I can see no possible way for him to win unless something goes terribly wrong with the top 3.
 
He was restrained to my eyes and didn't enjoy it. I think being let loose with no stamina concerns will be a huge plus and presuming he wins and runs well today it can't be underestimated how much more of a positive preperation he'd have had compared with last year.
 
Can't be underestimate what he'll have to find with Sprinter Sacre either and by all accounts he's been going the right way since Ascot.....Ruby neither restrained him nor did he push him at Kempton IMO

We can agree to differ on that.

Wouldn't back against him today and would have backed him had he gone to Ascot but the QMCC is a world apart from either of those races today and I doubt if he's ever been in that league.
 
Champagne Fever has no chance in a Queen Mother. I can't remember a CC winner ever being off the bridle a mile out.
 
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