QM Champion Chase betting

EC1 said:
on paper no..obviously if he does come back..he will win easily..what % chance is there he will be at his very best?

if not at best..then will he be 90%?..if it is 90% then if he is a 190 horse as his rating suggests..then 90% of that is 171...is that a head in chest win?

Looking at such as Well Chief..he came back and won..but was a stone below his best..so if WC is a decent example of a horse coming back then SS might be a 176 on the day..again is that head in chest?..could be.

guess guess guess really isn't it?..intriguing race now though

Mr Mole's performance yesterday was top stuff..he gave them a 10 length start..and won by 13 easing up..if you can class that as a 23+ length win..giving 2lb to a 150 horse..thats a 175 there..and he seems to be improving..he is some opponent now...just on his own..throw in the others and this is a wide open race.

Swap MM yesterday for SS and this forum would have been lauding it as a top notch win
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No horse goes to Cheltenham 90% fit and wins a top race. Fitness won't be a problem or shouldn't be.

What Sprinter Sacre needs to be is 100% right in himself and then he can run as much as 20lbs below his best to win.

What one has to ask themselves is which horse is most likely to improve most between Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets. The one who was fit as a fiddle on the day coming off the back of a win in the Tingle Creek or a horse who has been off for over a year in the care of a sometimes overly cautious trainer and was the others ones superior by a mile before his lay off................I think most would say the latter.

Should he be able to make up 3 lengths? be nearer 30 than 3
 
i never mentioned fitness..again you are putting words in my mouth.

i hope he gets back to being a 190+ horse..will be a proper spectacle..% call though..imo..is he won't

thats last i'm saying about it Tanlic
 
Grasshopper said:
For me, he is already starting to look like a good thing, links.

SDG's participation (let alone ability to win) has to be hugely questionable now, neither Al Ferof or Champagne Fever have 2m chase form anywhere near good enough to trouble Dodging Bullets....and I will be massively surprised if Sacre cannot find the 3L or so he needs to finish in front of Dodging Bullets.

In fact, the only real danger to Sprinter Sacre is much more likely to win the Arkle!! :lol:
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The only danger I see is Dodging Bullets and I am quite confident SS will turn the Clarence house form over.If I was WPM or the owners of un de sceaux I'd have a tilt at the QMCC and vautor for the arkle.They would have a serious chance in both.Saying that UDS is a shoe in the arkle so if I was the owner scrub the last sentence.
 
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EC1 said:
like they did yesterday with SDG?..then SS..then Big Bucks...then well chief..then Denman

you will get a top one "come back" to its very best one day..then you can crow:)..problem is there are many that do not come back..and by that i mean the same as before they went

yes its probably a silly old saying...it should be..they rarely come back..but at the moment can you name one top horse that came back to its best in the last 10 years...and i mean top horse..a decent Grade 1 hoss.
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Solwhit
 
Solwhit did not come back as the same horse that beat a young Hurricane Fly. He could only win over longer, less competitive distances after his injury.


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SP Only said:
Solwhit
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thats nearly a good one

but was still not rated as high later in career as earlier..later = 164..earlier 168

not bad though

it could be argued ,,not that i can be arsed.. that if they had run him over 3 miles earlier in his career he could have been a 170+ horse at that trip...making his comeback not as good by a few more lbs..or that they had to stretch him out to face slower oppo after he came back..would he have been as good at 2 miles?

either way its not like for like same ability

i'd give it you though..just
 
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len_madeiros said:
Solwhit did not come back as the same horse that beat a young Hurricane Fly. He could only win over longer, less competitive distances after his injury.


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snap

good man

have you noticed how things that i say get questioned/picked up on and worked to f00kin death......they just run and run..but when i carry on a subject with someone else in the same manner...they cry and give me a physcology synopsis of my apparent flawed condition ..and then say they don't want owt to do with me any more?:)
 
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He won one of the worst renewals of the World Hurdle, nowhere near his level pre-injury. Worst renewals of the championship races would make for a decent thread on its own. My knowledge before 2000 is thin though.
 
nice one Bear..i thought it was someone else who doesn't understand the word RARELY

:)

i've decided i can't give SP Only... foive ...and buy it..it will just be a half point

only people of a certain age will get that:)
 
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I am a bit confused here. Gilgamboa is rated 128 Beats a 144 horse and a 139 rated horse but stays on 128 ?

That can't be right although there's maybe a good reason for it.....but for talking sake and give Gilamboa a 142

He's beaten 1/2 Length into 3rd by Claircam who's getting 10 lbs who has a 156 rating but has run to about 133 at best??

I don't really know if I am making sense but it would seem to me UDS beat two very moderate animals and how do you rate him....

165 perhaps?

Not that it matters but talk of running him in the QMCC is playing with fire.

Those horses he beat wouldn't see the way the likes of Dodging Bullets went and Gawd only knows how many fences the old Sprinter Sacre would have beat them by

A brilliant performance by a novice is a million miles away from winning a good QMCC and there's still a chance this years race could be a cracker.

The best horse UDS has met to date was gmix in France and he won that by a fast diminishing nose.

With what he's beaten so far this season you can't possibly think he's a QMCC just yet he's a novice taking, on rags and getting everything his own way doing it.

He definitely has a tremendous amount of scope and although Master Minded was a young horse when he won the race he deserved his place having beaten his biggest opponent hands down in the Game Spirit beforehand.

Plus Voy Por Ustedes ability to win a good 2 milers was questionable by that time. He was the reigning Champion Chaser but the renewal he won was a joke by QMCC standards

He had run some real bad races and his only success prior to MM QMCC was in a dreadful Game Spirit.

As someone pointed out Master Minded was young but he wasn't a Novice.

PN chanced his arm when Sprinter Sacre missed last years race with Hinterland but never got very far and he must have wished he had gone for the Arkle.

A novice can look fantastic in his own grade but taking on seasoned chasers is a different world.

Races like the Champion Hurdle, QMCC and the Gold Cup are not for novices no matter how good you think they are.

WM has had some brilliant novices as has NJH but no way would they even be tempted unless they were dreadful affairs/guaranteed.

I joke about Peace and Co saying he should run in the Champion Hurdle Nicky Henderson would rather cut his own testicles off than do that.

Sprinter Sacre was the highest rated Novice of all time and most likely could have won the QMCC in his Arkle year standing on his head but it was never a consideration.
and he was doing more than UDS has done to date without coming out of 2nd gear
 
It's very late here and I am going to bed....before I go I sincerely hope Sprinter Scare absolutely hoses up in the QMCC and I don't care about the money I just want EC to shut the f*** up :lol:

Just joking EC......Did you know that "they never come back" has nothing to do with horse racing.

It refers to boxers dating back to when jack Dempsey was Champion if not before.

.
 
EC1 said:
snap

good man

have you noticed how things that i say get questioned/picked up on and worked to f00kin death......they just run and run..but when i carry on a subject with someone else in the same manner...they cry and give me a physcology synopsis of my apparent flawed condition ..and then say they don't want owt to do with me any more?:)
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I don't get involved in any of that, mate. All I will say is that you talk a great deal of sense. As do many others on this site. And you're all lovely people in your own ways.


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Tanlic said:
It's very late here and I am going to bed....before I go I sincerely hope Sprinter Scare absolutely hoses up in the QMCC and I don't care about the money I just want EC to shut the f*** up :lol:

Just joking EC......Did you know that "they never come back" has nothing to do with horse racing.

It refers to boxers dating back to when jack Dempsey was Champion if not before.

.
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I'd say that was before, Tanlic. Written or said about Jim Jeffries probably when he took on Jack Johnson after a few (five?) years out the ring. Totally outclassed and Johnson took him out when he wanted to.


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len_madeiros said:
Solwhit did not come back as the same horse that beat a young Hurricane Fly. He could only win over longer, less competitive distances after his injury.


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Solwhit was also a 9yo when winning the Stayers, and having only his third run after a near-2 year injury lay-off. These are undeniably factors in the figure he put up at Cheltenham. It's also worth pointing-out that he was even better in the Aintree 3-miler, where he absolutely hacked-up without coming off the steel.

It's not always all about Cheltenham when it comes to ratings.

Solwhite is one of those rare examples of a race-horse with a long time off with leg/tendon trouble who did come back near his very best - his 3m hurdles form being within a handful of lbs of his best at 2m (Hurricane Fly always having a little more in hand than official winning distance, in their later battles).
 
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EC1 said:
snap

good man

have you noticed how things that i say get questioned/picked up on and worked to f00kin death......they just run and run..but when i carry on a subject with someone else in the same manner...they cry and give me a physcology synopsis of my apparent flawed condition ..and then say they don't want owt to do with me any more?:)
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I wasn't picking just throwing an answer out playing devils advocate. I agree with your point more or less.
 
len_madeiros said:
I'd say that was before, Tanlic. Written or said about Jim Jeffries probably when he took on Jack Johnson after a few (five?) years out the ring. Totally outclassed and Johnson took him out when he wanted to.


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Johnson would have beaten a peak Jeffries regardles of the time off and, without racism would arguably have gone to be a top 5 fighter of all time.
 
wilsonl said:
Johnson would have beaten a peak Jeffries regardles of the time off and, without racism would arguably have gone to be a top 5 fighter of all time.
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He still gets into many lists of top-5 Heavyweights. Proper boxer, who transformed the art. I agree, he would have beaten a peak Jeffries.

This is a great Queen Mum debate.


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Just been watching some replays of past years. Who's for bringing back that fence at the bottom of the hill? I know it's to do with safety but it had great drama.
 
Grasshopper said:
Solwhit was also a 9yo when winning the Stayers, and having only his third run after a near-2 year injury lay-off. These are undeniably factors in the figure he put up at Cheltenham. It's also worth pointing-out that he was even better in the Aintree 3-miler, where he absolutely hacked-up without coming off the steel.

It's not always all about Cheltenham when it comes to ratings.

Solwhite is one of those rare examples of a race-horse with a long time off with leg/tendon trouble who did come back near his very best - his 3m hurdles form being within a handful of lbs of his best at 2m (Hurricane Fly always having a little more in hand than official winning distance, in their later battles).
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Apart from hundreds of horses that do come back to their best over the years not being allowed to play in EC's game how do you rate a horse like Solwhit.

As far as I can make out he was given a rating of 168 by the handicapper when he beat Donna's Palm.....However he never ran to that mark again.

So was the handicapper right when he hit him with a 168? The handicapper sticks it to horses every week a point that is getting missed here.

The handicapper saying you are a 145 rated horses doesn't make it so. Win off that mark again and yes you are, Don't and obviously you are not.

So I would say Solwhit probably at his best was a 164 165 horse and there can be little doubt when he won the World Hurdle he did in fact comeback to his very best.

The fact is we all deteriorate with age and if you take that into consideration perhaps it could be considered the best performance of his life. ?
 
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