QM Champion Chase betting
- Thread starter Tout Seul
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
The last psychedelic experience I had was when Don't Push It won the national.........I am still recovering so que sera.:lol:
Actually I am as deep in Peace and Co as I am Sprinter Sacre so either one wins I am sound......both get beat will still have candles but no electric
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
3/1 SDG. Unreal.
He beat Somersby and Module last season.
He beat Somersby and Module last season.
and was bigger than 3/1 on the day having won all of the main trials
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
He's 9/2 with Hills and will probably average out at 4/1....I think that's fair...............My totally unbiased book 2/7 Sprinter Sacre 4/1 Sire De Grugy 1000/1 bar 
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
I can't crab SDG on the basis of today's form. I'm taking Grey Gold as having underperformed but Mister Grez, on my figures, is a good bit better than his OR (which might now take a hammering) and, while one line isn't strong evidence on which to go forward, even taking him on his OR of 132, SDG has given him a 36lbs beating, which would put him within 5lbs of the rating I had for him last season.
I think it was a highly pleasing performance.
I think it was a highly pleasing performance.
EC1
On a break
A lot of people believe that carrying less weight does not make a horse go faster.
To those that believe that statement i have a question.
Today Sire De Grugy carried 11-12 and beat Grey Gold 10-6..if taking weight off doesn't make them go faster that means today SDG has gone as fast as he can and taking a stone off his back wouldn't make him go faster ..which means he would still only beat GG the same distance if he carried 10-12
Is this what would happen?
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Very impressive today - just hope Jamie hasn't taken the edge off him by pushing him out to the line so close to Cheltenham . I am not sure why Grey Gold is being seen as having underperformed but I just do not fancy Dodging Bullets at that time of year around Cheltenham and he was beaten there by Uxiandre in November .
SDG looks to have put up the best performance and should be favourite . The big if is how much is still under Sprinter Sacre's bonnet whilst Mr Mole's improvement could see him in the frame .
SDG looks to have put up the best performance and should be favourite . The big if is how much is still under Sprinter Sacre's bonnet whilst Mr Mole's improvement could see him in the frame .
EC1
On a break
the ..weight off doesn't make a horse go faster ..scenario only makes SDG a rating of 159 today though.
what is your take on ,,,weight off no increase of speed ...DO?
or anyone really
what is your take on ,,,weight off no increase of speed ...DO?
or anyone really
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Without going into details please lets simplify this.........Is SDG a SLOW horse? NO if you take weight of his back will he go faster? YES
If a horses's max speed can be reached by him with 10 stone on his back will taking weight off his back make him go faster? NO
Or if you take 14lbs of his back will he go 14 lengths faster.........Not a chance.
You neglect to use the word slow
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EC1
On a break
so only slow horses don't go faster when you take weight off?
so when handicapping races how do you define slow + fast horses and ignore the weight a horse carries?
so a horse like SDG will go faster with weight took off?..how much faster though?
today for instance..how much of the weight he carried more than Grey would you add to his rating?
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I hear what you are saying Clive but it would amaze you just how much that win today will have taken out of Sire De Grugy in that ground.
If he eats up in the morning that will be a big plus but he'll be pretty sore, So most likely he'll be rested then kept to road work and at most a dip in the equine pool
If he eats up in the morning that will be a big plus but he'll be pretty sore, So most likely he'll be rested then kept to road work and at most a dip in the equine pool
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
The point is most horses will reach max speed they are capable of with 10 stone on their back.....hence min weight is 10 stone,
edgt
Senior Jockey
Min weight is 10 stone because jockeys are getting heavier; it used be 9-7.
anyways nice to see SDG win so nicely; it is all about confidence building for the horse.
Hopefully he and all the others can run to their best on the day; it is a Championship Race after all.
anyways nice to see SDG win so nicely; it is all about confidence building for the horse.
Hopefully he and all the others can run to their best on the day; it is a Championship Race after all.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
I think the fact that the handicapping system has worked so well for so many years is proof that in the big scheme of things it works.
Obviously there will be variations of effect depending on the build and basic natural speed of the individual animal.
All horses will have their own maximum speed, in which case taking weight off it won't make it run any faster but adding weight to it will slow it up. The accepted weight-distance allowances are just overall averages.
Dare I cite Roman Warrior yet again?
Personally, I don't see enough racing to be able to tell whether a horse will run faster if you reduce the weight it has to carry but you do get horses that connections will claim are better giving weight to lesser opponents and some who will tell you they're better getting weight in better class races.
Just as small people can be quite strong, some not-so-big horses can carry weight well.
Obviously there will be variations of effect depending on the build and basic natural speed of the individual animal.
All horses will have their own maximum speed, in which case taking weight off it won't make it run any faster but adding weight to it will slow it up. The accepted weight-distance allowances are just overall averages.
Dare I cite Roman Warrior yet again?
Personally, I don't see enough racing to be able to tell whether a horse will run faster if you reduce the weight it has to carry but you do get horses that connections will claim are better giving weight to lesser opponents and some who will tell you they're better getting weight in better class races.
Just as small people can be quite strong, some not-so-big horses can carry weight well.
Speed's an expression of stamina
Having said that, Force x Mass = Acceleration in any Physics, racehorses are no exception, what they do have is a top speed restricted by their biomechanics which they can't go faster than regardless of how much oxygen they're able to take in unless they're able to get their front legs out quickly enough to support their forward weight
The first thing to understand is how weight affects horses over different distances, then you can start going into things like going, and course topography. There's also such a thing as cruising speed and accelrative speed of course too
I've never really seen anything really conclusive about weight reductions speeding horses up, as very often you're dealing with horses on a downgrade anyway in order to get the reduction, and they have to be surveyed against other horses they ran against very recently. I do recall some research Mordin reported off a sample of something like 4500 horses which demonstrated that they do speed up, but the reality of this is that they had more energy in all likelihood for not being required to carry as much weight for as long. I've got 1L at a mile for 6.4Ibs reduction in my mind? In any event they don't speed up in the same ratio for a decrease that they slow up for an increase, I suspect the answer lies somewhere inbetween the two but there's a lot guesswork and extrapolation involved based around averages. I got the impression that the researchers unable to profile it on a racetrack simply adopted the research strategy of swamping the sample with weight of numbers and using the standard error of the mean. It's not a made way of doing things if you're doubt, the chances are you won't be far off
Having said that, Force x Mass = Acceleration in any Physics, racehorses are no exception, what they do have is a top speed restricted by their biomechanics which they can't go faster than regardless of how much oxygen they're able to take in unless they're able to get their front legs out quickly enough to support their forward weight
The first thing to understand is how weight affects horses over different distances, then you can start going into things like going, and course topography. There's also such a thing as cruising speed and accelrative speed of course too
I've never really seen anything really conclusive about weight reductions speeding horses up, as very often you're dealing with horses on a downgrade anyway in order to get the reduction, and they have to be surveyed against other horses they ran against very recently. I do recall some research Mordin reported off a sample of something like 4500 horses which demonstrated that they do speed up, but the reality of this is that they had more energy in all likelihood for not being required to carry as much weight for as long. I've got 1L at a mile for 6.4Ibs reduction in my mind? In any event they don't speed up in the same ratio for a decrease that they slow up for an increase, I suspect the answer lies somewhere inbetween the two but there's a lot guesswork and extrapolation involved based around averages. I got the impression that the researchers unable to profile it on a racetrack simply adopted the research strategy of swamping the sample with weight of numbers and using the standard error of the mean. It's not a made way of doing things if you're doubt, the chances are you won't be far off
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
That's exactly what I said Warbler:blink:
:lol:
:lol:
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
All you needed to do was ask me...let me explain
"Force x Mass = Acceleration in any Physics, racehorses are no exception, what they do have is a top speed restricted by their biomechanics which they can't go faster than regardless of how much oxygen they're able to take in unless they're able to get their front legs out quickly enough to support their forward weight"
I know these things
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
On a very serious note. It would seem that Sprinter Sacre has improved since Ascot but how much?
He should certainly beat Dodging Bullets this time round but imvho the amount of improvement needed to do so is not enough to stop Sire De Grugy running him down.
Dodging Bullets was a 158 rated horse going into the Tingle Creek. I have my doubts if winning that race, which was a very poor renewal. truly earned him the 165 rating the handicapper gave him.
The 3rd horse at Ascot just complicates matter further he's certainly not been running to his rating. Hidden Cyclone destroyed him without being flat to the boards like Dodging Bullets was at Ascot.
It may well be that h'es nearer a 160 horse than a 165 horse and that means Sprinter Sacre ran to a miserable 157 on his return and has to improve about a stone to give Sire De Grugy a race
There is another possible danger to Sprinter Sacre which would be a big plus to Sire De Grugy and that's the ground. If it comes up soft that could swing the pendulum closer towards a win for Sire De Grugy.
On Good to Soft he beat Sizing Europe 19 lengths on very Soft he beat him only 5 1/2 lengths.......it was either because he was over the top, he simply is not as good on soft ground or we were seeing the first signs of his heart problem but whatever it was it was at that time the least impressive race of his career.
One things for sure Nicky Henderson could have done without that performance from Sire De Grugy yesterday.
With him practically gone he must have been ultra confident of beating Dodging Bullets, I know I was but now the goal posts have been moved.
Nicky is going to need to pull out all the stops now to get the horse 100% plus a bit in 17 days time and if he does that it will be one of the best training feats of all time.
The news so far is all good but it's going to have to be better than that and nearly there won't crack it imo.
We won't need to wait until the last to know the result if Sprinter Sacre hasn't put the race to bed before the 2nd last you can press that lay button.
On a positive note tactically Barry Geraghty would ride Jamie Moore to sleep and he does have a plan:-
TO WIN
He should certainly beat Dodging Bullets this time round but imvho the amount of improvement needed to do so is not enough to stop Sire De Grugy running him down.
Dodging Bullets was a 158 rated horse going into the Tingle Creek. I have my doubts if winning that race, which was a very poor renewal. truly earned him the 165 rating the handicapper gave him.
The 3rd horse at Ascot just complicates matter further he's certainly not been running to his rating. Hidden Cyclone destroyed him without being flat to the boards like Dodging Bullets was at Ascot.
It may well be that h'es nearer a 160 horse than a 165 horse and that means Sprinter Sacre ran to a miserable 157 on his return and has to improve about a stone to give Sire De Grugy a race
There is another possible danger to Sprinter Sacre which would be a big plus to Sire De Grugy and that's the ground. If it comes up soft that could swing the pendulum closer towards a win for Sire De Grugy.
On Good to Soft he beat Sizing Europe 19 lengths on very Soft he beat him only 5 1/2 lengths.......it was either because he was over the top, he simply is not as good on soft ground or we were seeing the first signs of his heart problem but whatever it was it was at that time the least impressive race of his career.
One things for sure Nicky Henderson could have done without that performance from Sire De Grugy yesterday.
With him practically gone he must have been ultra confident of beating Dodging Bullets, I know I was but now the goal posts have been moved.
Nicky is going to need to pull out all the stops now to get the horse 100% plus a bit in 17 days time and if he does that it will be one of the best training feats of all time.
The news so far is all good but it's going to have to be better than that and nearly there won't crack it imo.
We won't need to wait until the last to know the result if Sprinter Sacre hasn't put the race to bed before the 2nd last you can press that lay button.
On a positive note tactically Barry Geraghty would ride Jamie Moore to sleep and he does have a plan:-
TO WIN
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EC1
On a break
thanks for the reply Tanlic
I think my point is being missed a bit though. I don't think weight affects bad horses any different to very good horses
I'll equate an example to athletics to show this..it applies to horses just the same..seeing as gravity affects us all.
a 50 year old man runs a 400 metre race carrying a haversack with 6 house bricks in it..lets say he runs that in 65 seconds.
An olympic 400 metre champion also runs the 400 metre carrying a haversack with 6 house bricks in it..he runs in it lets say 50 seconds
They then run both races again without the house bricks
They will both run faster..so taking weight off a slow runner or a fast runner will aid them to go faster
So it has nothing to do with how good an athlete/horse is..its plain old mass/acceleration ect
That is why saying taking off weight won't make a horse go faster..is actually defying the law of gravity.
It doesn't make any logical sense.
Its like yesterdays race...if you took a stone off SDG..will he run faster..of course he would
Its got nothing to with a ability....a 0-60 flat horse is exposed to exactly the same gravity as Frankel
I think my point is being missed a bit though. I don't think weight affects bad horses any different to very good horses
I'll equate an example to athletics to show this..it applies to horses just the same..seeing as gravity affects us all.
a 50 year old man runs a 400 metre race carrying a haversack with 6 house bricks in it..lets say he runs that in 65 seconds.
An olympic 400 metre champion also runs the 400 metre carrying a haversack with 6 house bricks in it..he runs in it lets say 50 seconds
They then run both races again without the house bricks
They will both run faster..so taking weight off a slow runner or a fast runner will aid them to go faster
So it has nothing to do with how good an athlete/horse is..its plain old mass/acceleration ect
That is why saying taking off weight won't make a horse go faster..is actually defying the law of gravity.
It doesn't make any logical sense.
Its like yesterdays race...if you took a stone off SDG..will he run faster..of course he would
Its got nothing to with a ability....a 0-60 flat horse is exposed to exactly the same gravity as Frankel
EC1
On a break
Is winning a handicap like SDG did yesterday on a par with winning a Grade 1 Chase beating a 165 horse 8 lengths..and a 162 horse 15 lengths
i'm not seeing it tbh..surely Dodging Bullets form last time is better than a handicap win
i'm not seeing it tbh..surely Dodging Bullets form last time is better than a handicap win
BennyB
Senior Jockey
You're right EC. Also as said above speed and stamina are two sides of the same coin. A stone less probably doesn't make much difference to a racehorse's top speed, but it will mean it can maintain top speed for longer.
The notion that less weight leads to faster times is utterly correct, otherwise handicaps would be a joke.
Tanlic - how many times do you see a horse with no chance 'win' with no jockey on? Weight makes a difference to all horses, fast and slow.
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The notion that less weight leads to faster times is utterly correct, otherwise handicaps would be a joke.
Tanlic - how many times do you see a horse with no chance 'win' with no jockey on? Weight makes a difference to all horses, fast and slow.
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