QM Champion Chase betting

It really is........Nicky is paranoid enough about getting SS back on the course without this shyte............Newbury have an inspection tomorrow..........The very day Sprinter is to have his racecourse gallop and schooling over a few fences...........Somebody up there likes you ...........my ass
 
I wouldn't pay any attention to the betting Warbler I reckon the bookies are taking the ****. Even if the main contenders dropped out there would have to be a doubt that PN would run Al Ferof over 2 miles.

He tends to hit a bit of a flat spot over shorter trips. If you look back to when he won the Supreme when Sprinter Sacre quicked at the top of the hill Al Ferof lost many lengths and the only reason he for back into the race was those up front fell in a heap.

Despite having won the Supreme there has to be a huge doubt that he could cope with the pace of a QMCC or that PN would switch from the less pacey Ryanair when he has the Tingle Creek winner Dodging Bullets to reply on.

Plus the fact Dodging Bullets is a natural 2 miler and only has one entry at Cheltenham that I am aware of.

Surely PN would want to win both races if the opportunity arises.
 
It's not the betting that I was repsonding to, but the trainer comment. OK Nicholls has changed his mind before, but you don't need to be a genius to see that the RyanAir is a very hot race that doesn't carry the prestige of a Champion Chase.

There's going to be a few who decide to take their chance at the shorter trip I reckon if the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy don't make it. Nicholls knows (or should do) whether Al Ferof is better equipped to win than Dodging Bullets and if opportunity presents itself to take a weak Champion Chase he'd be stupid not to look a gift horse in the mouth. That Nicholls has talked about re-routing the grey to the Champion Chase (after coming third at Kempton) should be a clue as to how much he rates Dodging Bullets chances

I also wonder if there's a handicapper capable of stepping up at 2 miles and getting into the mix on decent ground
 
I suspect that the question marks over SS and SDG and the fact that nothing looks at all special out of either the Tingle Creek or Dial a bet chases means they will think very seriously about running Al Ferof in the Champion Chase .

Mullins's candidates do not look at all strong ( Twinlight appears to need it very soft , Ballycasey too slow , Felix Yonger unlikely to be good enough ) unless Champagne Fever goes back to 2 miles and I suspect Hales would be itching to offer the ride to Ruby if he could .
 
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Can't say I have been paying too much attention to handicappers who might step up as you suggest but horses can improve leaps and bounds between now and March.

That aside if you take Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy out of calculations PN wouldn't need to worry which of the 2 were best equipped as either one could beat Somersby who looks best of the rest as C Fever is another who looks better suited by the Ryanair trip

I know if I were PN and that situation arose I would want to try and win both races and there's no way on earth Dodging Bullets would get the trip in the Ryanair.

There is one other possibility if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don't turn up and that's Simonsig. You would of course have to take Nicky Henderson's word for it when he says he just has a few niggles.

He would pick the PN duo up and carry them if he was right and Nicky is a dab hand at getting them spot on without a run.

The intention is still for Sprinter Sacre to go to Newbury today if the frost hasn't put paid to that.....It's long odds on it will go ahead on Betfair so it looks like his day out will go ahead if the frost has come out of the ground by 11am.

It's a pretty safe bet if all goes well he'll go for the VC/Celebration Chase and if he wins it then it won't matter a jot who's right and who's wrong.
 
Nicky is starting to show that he's not the dab hand Nicholls is at bringing horses back.

What Nicholls did with Kauto and Denman was nothing short of a training miracle.
 
Warbler said:
I also wonder if there's a handicapper capable of stepping up at 2 miles and getting into the mix on decent ground
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Savello fits that bill perfectly. He ran deplorably the last day but it was the same before his Grand Annual win last year.

60+ on the machine or 12 TBP
 
I have one in the back of my mind for the QMCC but it isn't in any of the list yet. They might accept it has too much to do, especially if events show that SS is back in which case the Grand Annual might just be a lap of honour, but without him I really do think the one I'm thinking of could cause a shock (not to me, obviously :)).
 
He nearly landed on top of the ditch! looked sound though. wearing a heart monitor so hopefully he comes out good.
 
Grasshopper said:
Any bookie losing their bottle on the back of a racecourse gallop from the Aeroplane, wants checking for a set of testicles, if you ask me.
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Should we start with Ladbrokes? not that they have any balls........They just went 2/1 from 7/2. Skybet 7/4 but I think they were only offering 7/4 beforehand.......I guess they must have laid someone 40 pounds to a tenner before Xmas:)
 
Barry has been exceptionally quiet about the whole matter until now. The fact he has said he is just about there (back to his best) should be taken very seriously.
 
Tanlic said:
Should we start with Ladbrokes? not that they have any balls........They just went 2/1 from 7/2. Skybet 7/4 but I think they were only offering 7/4 beforehand.......I guess they must have laid someone 40 pounds to a tenner before Xmas:)
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Skybet have been NRNB for a couple of weeks on this race (+ the 3 other features)
 
Cheers Viking and my apologies to them...that's a bet worth looking at because if he does turn up he's certain to be odds on.

However if I have any more on the horse, her indoors will cut my goolies off..:blink:
 
Tanlic said:
Cheers Viking and my apologies to them...that's a bet worth looking at because if he does turn up he's certain to be odds on.

However if I have any more on the horse, her indoors will cut my goolies off..:blink:
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Agreed. He'll be shorter than 7/4 if winning the VC or whatever it's called now and I wouldn't be at all surprised if NJH decides to call time on his season if not winning

I don't let my missus anywhere near my bookie accounts. She'd have a fit [emoji4]
 
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To be fair, Tanlic, the poor-showing by the rest of the 'serious' 2m candidates in the Desert Orchid and Dial-a-Bet chases, will have had more to do with Sacre's price-cut, than anything the Aeroplane did in his gallop.

He's probably for backing now, I have to admit. He could run 2-stone below his best, and still win the QMCC - they are a dire lot in the 2m chase division.
 
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To be honest if the same problem returned which is all that is keeping him from running I doubt if we would ever see him again.

That however is unlikely or so I am led to believe. The problem he had is common in young dogs and is self healing and not life threatening and very seldom returns.

The big question has to be will he be the same horse after such a long lay off?

God willing we should know the answer to that question next month
 
i've no issue with bookies cutting him on the back of today. going on some of the comments in twitterland you'd think what they've done is beyond belief and when you say the line "bookie cuts horse on the back of a racecourse gallop" it does sound ridiculous but in reality today was not an insubstantial stepping stone to his future. it's his first time back in a racecourse environment and they needed to see how he'd react both physically with his heart and also mentally with his confidence and from what i saw he seemed full of zest and enjoyed himself. geraghty and hendo were all smiles after which tells its own story.
 
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