QM Champion Chase betting

Tanlic said:
EC Mr Mole was flattered no end SDG needed the run and jumped like a mule, Upsilon Bleu wouldn't get within a fence of SDG on a going day and the 3rd would be better off on Blackpool beach.

How can you base anything on a horse that was obviously out of sorts?

Mr Mole beat Brick Red prior to that race and he scraped home in a handicap the other day.

There's nothing to indicate that Mr Mole deserves his place in this company.......absolutely nothing.

JP was asked what he thought of his chances and he said" You can back him if you like but he won't be carrying my money.

He runs in this because there's nowhere else to send him of a ridiculously high rating of 165
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you have managed to find his correct rating now then?:)

he is an improver..fast improver..you are talking like he has shown everything he has..i don't think he has..if we just back the highest rated horses in races how tedious it would be

you are very quick to dismiss horses whilst stating the obvious

its obvious..if SS is back to his very best he wins by 15+..its like telling me Frankel was a decent horse..i don't need daily reminders to tell me how good he is..but ronnie corbett keeps muddying the water by opening his mouth..i don't get the guy..we all know how patient he is from the past..just keep mouth shut spouting PR and just let the horse do his stuff

If SDG is back to his best he would be a clear second..on the ratings as they stand

the problem is..horses actually improve..and DB and MM are improving..last season we had virtually no one thinking SDG could keep winning..same thing..people not allowing for improvement,,just going on ratings

betting wise..i don't care what wins it..for a visual spectacle i would like to see SS hammer them with SDG in second..a real marker..a real opponent to measure him off rather the fading stars we've had previously to try and judge him

if SS could be got back to his best we could actually see a 200 rating..that would be special,,% call though is he might not get back to those heights..but i do happen to know how good his best is..i would think everyone here does.
 
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I just feel Mr Mole has fallen under the Handicapper's wrath and his rating is totally false.

Correct me if I am wrong but he starts off at 147 drops to 146 Beats Brick Red off levels and he's back up to 147

Then he beats him again giving him 3lbs and gets an 8lbs hike to 155......That alone I would say is a bit harsh but lets say it's ok.

He then wins a farce and some horse posing as the real SDG happened to run in it. That's the crucial point here was SDG at his best? and the answer has to be not even close

SDG by the way as found to have a corn in his foot after the race which would explain why he ran and jumped so badly.

The handicapper of course doesn't care about the facts he just number crunches and whacks him up 10 lbs.

I think the handicapper has been very unfair to the horse and he hasn't had to or needed to improve that much to win that race.

You say I have found his correct rating I disagree.

Now as far as Sprinter Sacre goes and him getting back to his best is concerned........That is a 20/1 shot.

The horse might not even make it to Cheltenham and if he does there's a chance he could bleed again...........race over.

Taking it that doesn't happen my argument is there's no way on the planet can anyone expect him not to reverse places with Dodging Bullets

You did and I have no idea what was going through your head............again it was he is improving.

I would expect Sprinter Sacre to improve and be turned in the region of 175 -178 horse on the day.

In that condition he'd pick up Dodging Bullets and carry him and Mr Mole who in my book is probably about a 159 horse wouldn't be sighted.

I'd like to see Barry Geraghty take on Champagne Fever well before the home turn by using his mid race pace.

If he does get him out the way then the real danger and the one he has to beat will no doubt be right behind him.

What happens from there is anyone's guess but this for me is a 2 horse race and without them it would be the poorest QMCC in many a year.

You have harped on about Dodging Bullets on the basis he won the Tingle Creek from old Somerby and SS when he obviously wasn't 100%

Now Mr Mole wins a farce and he's the new superstar.

Stick to the sand mate you're brilliant at it.........I'll handle the jumps :)
 
Tanlic said:
I just feel Mr Mole has fallen under the Handicapper's wrath and his rating is totally false.

Correct me if I am wrong but he starts off at 147 drops to 146 Beats Brick Red off levels and he's back up to 147

Then he beats him again giving him 3lbs and gets an 8lbs hike to 155......That alone I would say is a bit harsh but lets say it's ok.

He then wins a farce and some horse posing as the real SDG happened to run in it. That's the crucial point here was SDG at his best? and the answer has to be not even close

SDG by the way as found to have a corn in his foot after the race which would explain why he ran and jumped so badly.

The handicapper of course doesn't care about the facts he just number crunches and whacks him up 10 lbs.

I think the handicapper has been very unfair to the horse and he hasn't had to or needed to improve that much to win that race.

You say I have found his correct rating I disagree.

Now as far as Sprinter Sacre goes and him getting back to his best is concerned........That is a 20/1 shot.

The horse might not even make it to Cheltenham and if he does there's a chance he could bleed again...........race over.

Taking it that doesn't happen my argument is there's no way on the planet can anyone expect him not to reverse places with Dodging Bullets

You did and I have no idea what was going through your head............again it was he is improving.

I would expect Sprinter Sacre to improve and be turned in the region of 175 -178 horse on the day.

In that condition he'd pick up Dodging Bullets and carry him and Mr Mole who in my book is probably about a 159 horse wouldn't be sighted.

I'd like to see Barry Geraghty take on Champagne Fever well before the home turn by using his mid race pace.

If he does get him out the way then the real danger and the one he has to beat will no doubt be right behind him.

What happens from there is anyone's guess but this for me is a 2 horse race and without them it would be the poorest QMCC in many a year.

You have harped on about Dodging Bullets on the basis he won the Tingle Creek from old Somerby and SS when he obviously wasn't 100%

Now Mr Mole wins a farce and he's the new superstar.

Stick to the sand mate you're brilliant at it.........I'll handle the jumps :)
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Mr Mole..beat Upsilon Bleu 150 horse..who would have peed up if it had been 2 miles a few days ago..by 13 length..giving 10+ length start..lets just call that just 5lb..not the full 10 that TNO fans would want:)...and giving 2lb weight..thats a rating of 168

bearing in mind..he never came out of second gear..bearing in mind..the race before he is only a 155 horse

that to me is the epitomy of an improving horse,,but you can't see it because you have got Sacreitis

regarding your last statement..any time you want to start a thread for NH selections..i'll take you on..we will see about... leave it to me then ....one way or the other:)
 
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granger said:
No concerns over his bleed Tanlic?
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Of course I have that's my main worry.

I lost a lot of money on a horse called Gembridge Jupiter when he burst at Donnie and I can tell you it would stop a train when they do.

That said he came back and won 9 races and never burst again

Sprinter's was minor and watching the race it can't be used as an excuse for him losing.

I think Barry thought he had taken care of Dodging Bullets didn't expect him to come back at him
and stepped of the gas deliberately thinking all he had to beat was in front of him.

When Dodging Bullets came back running he put on a bit of a show but new as was said he was tiring and accepted it.

I doubt if the bleed had anything to do with it. I had resigned myself to the fact he wasn't going to win by halfway.

All the noises about bleeding are coming from outside the yard and so far there's been no signs of it happening again but
when you here so many people talking about no backing bleeders it certainly is worrying.
 
Just got a message telling me Ricci is running around saying they good vibes sent out about Sprinter Scare are all crap and it's just to scare of the opposition :blink:


I can just see GM PN and WPM shitting themselves and all pulling out..........guys an idiot
 
it was a minor bleed and to be expected for a horse first time back after so long off....its the last thing that would put me off. Loads of horses bleed like this...other trainers / owners are at it. I expect Sprinter to win easy.
 
The 5 Day twelve
Balder Succes
Champagne Fever
Clarcam
Dodging Bullets
Mr Mole
Savello
Simply Ned
Sire De Grugy
Sizing Europe
Sommersby
Special Tiara
Sprinter Sacre

Anyone who is interested pick a horse and give reasons for and against their chances in this race.
That we have passed 1000 posts shows how the race has exercised opinion here.
I believe the race deserves it.
Thanks in anticipation all !
 
Champagne Fever is turning into my nap of the meeting.

He's had a far far better prep for the race than he had the Arkle last season. He's a great jumper.

Arkle winners and runners up have a great record in the following season's QM

SS isn't the horse he was and looks to me like the type who'll find nowt off the bridle

SDG beat Somersby and Module last season. Next

Dodging Bullets is held like a Rhonda Rousey arm bar by Champagne Fever on two Festival runs.

The rest have no chance
 
He won't come off the bridle.... Sprinter will lead from two out and be 8L clear come the line. Still not off the bridle.
 
Any improvement by SS it will be his.
CF for me is not top class over 2m but if pressing from the front and all is not well with the injured brigade he could make hay.
SDG will be in first two but depending on the above scenarios.
DB-overrated,always looked as if he shys away from a scrap and was smashed in Arkle.place lay for me.
 
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SS to win. Good run on return imo. Better ground also a plus. Think he'll find enough improvement to win, especially on better ground.

SDG - In terms of form, not really that far ahead of the likes of DB and MM. The 2 quick runs back not so much a turn off itself, but his last run in heavy ground so close to Cheltenham would concern me slightly. Having said that, if he brings his best then I would expect him to chase SS home.

DB - Can't knock what he's done this season. On better ground though I don't fancy him. He was being pushed along in to the home straight last time in soft ground. Think he will find himself to far back to make a challenge.

CF - Emmm, think he should be in the Ryanair myself. Though can see why they are going for this with his previous form here. Not convinced he'll have enough boot for this but if SS doesn't show up like some think and SDG has left his race behind then you can make the case.

MM - One you can't underestimate after the way he cruised home last time. Just a case of whether you trust him or not. Wouldn't surprise me either way, but will overlook him here, which could be a mistake. But heyho.

SN - Just thought I would mention him for fonz :ninja:

Looking like Good will be in the going description of some sort. In that case my 1st three home will be,

1st - SS
2nd - SDG
3rd - CF
 
Euronymous said:
Champagne Fever is turning into my nap of the meeting.

He's had a far far better prep for the race than he had the Arkle last season. He's a great jumper.

Arkle winners and runners up have a great record in the following season's QM
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Has a chance thats for sure. Should be bigger in the markets tho. Sizing was quite unfancied when he won his QM, but he was capable of winning his Arkle

Both ran over 3miles in their first season out of novice company.

Sick to my teeth of hearing Geraghty say that SS is feeling electric
 
granger said:
Should be bigger in the markets tho. Sizing was quite unfancied when he won his QM, but he was capable of winning his Arkle
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Yeah, the perception was Captain cee bee would have won had he not fallen in their prior meeting. I think CF's Cheltenham record suggests he is either priced about right or slightly bigger than he should be. He has less negs imo than those ahead of him.
 
It was, but he had no race between that fall when he tried locking horns with Defy Logic and the Arkle, always a negative for novices.

He's so much more experienced now and we have some precedent with Finian's Rainbow. He finished legless in his Arkle (went too soon) but that bit more experience 12 months later and we saw a different animal in the QM
 
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