R Walsh v The Last Fence

Bryan Cooper has been far worse than Ruby today.

Would anyone back Ruby Walsh to have a last jump fall at the festival at 11/8?
 
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22 or 23 chances Slim; it could be a bet.

My favourite racing story is the aftermath of Mubadir's fall in Denny Novice Chase at Leopardstown 26 Dec 1993.

Paul Carberry's first high profile big chase ride he led into the last, went for a big jump and the horse,a four year old novice knuckled over on landing.

Paul walked off the course with saddle accompanied by his father Tommy with Noel Meade a stride behind, the forlorn jockey explaining how he needed a good jump to win the race and as such had done the right thing in the circumstances.

His father, having listened, stopped his son and replied " Remember one thing, when you end up on the ground you have done the wrong thing !"

I love that story and think of it whenever I F&&k up!
 
Nice piece in RP Sunday on Ruby's ride on Thistlecrack last year.
" We got Ruby to ride him one day at Ascot and all of a sudden he dropped right back through the field, and at Swinley Bottom he was last. I thought "What the hell ?" Then he came into the straight, picked up, made 20 lengths and won ever so impressively. Ruby said halfway round the horse wasn't jumping so he thought he'd just leave him at a couple of hurdles and let him work it out . That made the horse- it was a masterclass of riding. So said Colin Tizzard.

11/8 might not be quite the bet I thought it was!!!!
 
On Twitter so can't vouch for accuracy but supposedly between Jan 2003 and Feb 2016 Walsh has had 8,604 rides. Fall/UR 421(4.89%). Mathematical expectancy suggests he'll have 13 falls in a row (not sure how many jockeys have managed that),most he's had is 2.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
On Twitter so can't vouch for accuracy but supposedly between Jan 2003 and Feb 2016 Walsh has had 8,604 rides. Fall/UR 421(4.89%). Mathematical expectancy suggests he'll have 13 falls in a row (not sure how many jockeys have managed that),most he's had is 2.
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That's simply not possible. 13 falls in a row and you're in a wheelchair at best.
 
All the figures suggest is that he has a fall/UR approximately every 20 rides, the odds of him having 13 in a row are off the scale.
 
In an article in the Guardian Ruby was unseated 1.7% of the time the highest was Nick Schofield at 2.2%

When it came to falling Ruby was right up there at Number 1 back in 2009 Ruby Walsh 7.4% of rides ended with a fall

I am being told last fence falls were covered by Nick Mordin for the weekender and ruby won by a mile.

Barry Geraghty .04% of unseats and less that 1% fallers

And Ruby's the better Jockey? Better hands perhaps but those number are shocking

I think we all know Ruby's style very well. He relaxes his horses and gets them jumping with very little effort

His quiet relaxed style and ability to put horses to sleep is probably why he has so many falls.

Djackadam was a classic Ruby fall. He had him relaxed jumping ever fence with total ease and Ruby just needed to sit there and the horse would find his own stride.
Then suddenly the horse gets it wrong puts in an extra stride unexpectedly and Ruby who's totally relaxed himself gets caught out.

But what can you do the guy has such a high percentage of winning rides he more than makes up for his one possible flaw in his makeup
 
From the RP app:

From a total of 6505 rides since 1 Jan 2005, Ruby has fallen at the last 1.04% of the time, compared to 0.53% for AP and 0.51% for Richard Johnson in the same period. Of those 68 falls or unseats, 31 were when Ruby was in contention to win the race.
 
Good stuff Len thanks for that...Twice as much as AP and RJ...that's a lot

I here the trainers he rides for are lobbying to have the last fence removed from all racecourses :lol:
 
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Anyone who doesn't back a Ruby horse because he's afraid that it will fall at the last is to be pitied rather than condemned.
 
archie said:
Anyone who doesn't back a Ruby horse because he's afraid that it will fall at the last is to be pitied rather than condemned.
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It will always be a nagging feeling for punters, Archie. And, come on, we can all see it happening again this Cheltenham; the trick is to avoid the race where it happens - the Annie Power moment.
 
Having said the above, I don't want to go out on a limb and say that Ruby will fall at the last at the Festival - that is NOT what I want to happen just so that I can say "I told you so". I think he's a great jockey, but there's always that nagging fear because it has happened before too often.
 
To counterweigh the 1% he falls at the last.

in many races on Mullins hotpots he rides from the front..so then he doesn't get brought down as often as other jockeys

I'd wager..that if a last flight fall is a 1% negative for RW..then getting brought down is a bigger danger for any other jockey. In which case if the fear of a last fence fall is enough to put a punteroff..then same punters might as well stop betting altogether..as many more horses will get brought down than RW loses at the last.

His riding usually from the front also stops the massive interference when not actually brought down..i been watching a few betfair hurdles over the last few days..horses go down in that and take 3 or 4 horses out of the race..thats a bigger stopper of a jock winning a race especially in a big field race at Cheltenham ...than coming off 1 in 100 at the last i would imagine
 
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Len Madeiros said:
It will always be a nagging feeling for punters, Archie. And, come on, we can all see it happening again this Cheltenham
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Absolutely not, Len. The figures say that he falls or unseats once in eleven chases so the odds are that he'll come off a couple of times at the Festival. The comparative odds for this happening to Ruby rather than any other jockey are simply not worth taking into consideration. Did you worry about Geraghty falling off Moscow Flyer before his second QM win because he'd fallen off 50% of the time in previous QMs?
 
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if it is a nagging doubt for anyone..then best pack in betting..because in a packed field..you going to have massive nagging doubts about any horse falling in front of your horse..you will be stressed to f all the time...just on that factor alone

Lets see..your horse might fall..get hampered..pull up lame...get brought down..actually break down in the race god forbid..jockey take wrong course...there is lots to stop you winning...this Ruby thing is least of worries i'd think..particularly..when his usual riding style removes some of those risks.

I'd wager..you are more likely to lose your money..following any jockey..bar Ruby. So punter who backs Ruby..has a little fear re last fence...versus everyone else has lots more cause for concern..% wise any other jockey will be higher to fail to win for you based just on race mishaps in general
 
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This is basically what I was saying earlier in the thread.

No matter what the stats tell you, Walsh's last-fence-fall ratio just isn't something I would personally factor into the equation, when deciding whether or not to back his mount.
 
Len Madeiros said:
It will always be a nagging feeling for punters, Archie. And, come on, we can all see it happening again this Cheltenham; the trick is to avoid the race where it happens - the Annie Power moment.
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I thought the general consensus was she jumped ' a shadow' and that's why she came down? Having said that, I think he is guilty of over confidence in a lot of cases. He may think he is cruising approaching the last and only has to get over and then waltz away on the run in, but I think he just needs to hold them together/wake up a bit without over doing it when approaching the last to make sure.
 
EC1 said:
To counterweigh the 1% he falls at the last.

in many races on Mullins hotpots he rides from the front..so then he doesn't get brought down as often as other jockeys

I'd wager..that if a last flight fall is a 1% negative for RW..then getting brought down is a bigger danger for any other jockey. In which case if the fear of a last fence fall is enough to put a punteroff..then same punters might as well stop betting altogether..as many more horses will get brought down than RW loses at the last.

His riding usually from the front also stops the massive interference when not actually brought down..i been watching a few betfair hurdles over the last few days..horses go down in that and take 3 or 4 horses out of the race..thats a bigger stopper of a jock winning a race especially in a big field race at Cheltenham ...than coming off 1 in 100 at the last i would imagine
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I know, it all makes sense what you say, EC. But you're using strict lines of logic and probability here, not the emotion and irrational doubt of the human brain. I know which one I should use over the other, but I can't guarantee that I always will.
 
Tanlic said:
No matter how you dress it up he has one of the highest percentages of falls to rides in the game.
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maybe he is in contention more often than say someone who rides for a stable who is nipping along at the back getting the marks down,,or having rides where they stop as though shot through lack of fitness ...i'd imagine when you riding triers 95% of the time you going to come to that last with a bit more gusto than most others % wise
 
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