R Walsh v The Last Fence

Len Madeiros said:
I know, it all makes sense what you say, EC. But you're using strict lines of logic and probability here, not the emotion and irrational doubt of the human brain. I know which one I should use over the other, but I can't guarantee that I always will.
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aye..i know what you mean

personally i wouldn't give it a thought..there are so many factors that can stop us winning...this is minor in comparison to other aspects that get ignored daily..most bad rides or poorly judged ones get missed..the poorly paced rides..its topics such as this that get people talking where its so high profile..and then it gets out of proprtion to reality imo. I'd be more worried about backing hosses from a stable that only tries 1% of the time tbh..folk lose more times on those runners than RW.

i'll wager those that don't like Walsh or Mullins much will shout the loudest about how big a deal it is in reality. Betfair forum will be red hot i would imagine after each one. Recency is another factor...he could not do it for months..then one happens..and all those times in between are forgotten..if it were a smaller scale rider doing it at Plumpton every week it wouldn't get a mention
 
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EC1 said:
maybe he is in contention more often than say someone who rides for a stable who is nipping along at the back getting the marks down,,or having rides where they stop as though shot through lack of fitness ...i'd imagine when you riding triers 95% of the time you going to come to that last with a bit more gusto than most others % wise
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That really doesn't hold any water EC..Think AP McCoy.

The year he had 7.4% Johnson had 4.5% Scu 4.3 AP.3.7%

The lowest percentages for years have been Mick Fitzgerald 2.9% 2.and Barry Geraghty less than 1% when they were riding for Nicky Henderson.
 
I agree with EC. The domination Mullins has at the moment, and the sheer quality of horses running in so many races where they have stones or many pounds in hand over their rivals, means Ruby is riding an unprecedented number of horses who are almost going too well still as they come to the last. They're absolutely tanking so are more likely to overjump or take off too early, or simply have too much time to make a mistake.

AP and Dickie won/win their fair share, but not so many without having had to move a muscle by the time they reached the last.
 
Dunno, Cruella?
Don't recall Ruby having as many armchair rides for PN, yet those figures should be heavily influenced by the number of rides he had for his former stable.
Wasn't there a recent discussion here on WM not being as capable with chasers - being interesting to see Ruby's stats for each trainer, if anyone can glean them?
 
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Len Madeiros said:
From the RP app:

From a total of 6505 rides since 1 Jan 2005, Ruby has fallen at the last 1.04% of the time, compared to 0.53% for AP and 0.51% for Richard Johnson in the same period. Of those 68 falls or unseats, 31 were when Ruby was in contention to win the race.
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So 99% of the time he doesn't fall at the last. I'd probably take my chances
 
http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake

Interesting stuff here, nothing like some hard data. Both sides of this debate will find fuel for their arguments here but I agree with Kevin Blake's conclusions.

Meanwhile I hear Ruby's bought a yacht with the bookie money he was given after putting Annie Power on the floor. A taxi man told me that and he should know.
 
That's the most informative and best-researched article I have read on the topic. You still have to take it on trust that Ruby's confidence hasn't been shaken and that he will continue to ride horses into the last the same way he always has, and that his current aberrations at the last fence are just coincidence.
 
Blake's work answers the 'whether' but not the 'why' - it shows that Walsh does fall at the last more often but doesn't attempt to find the reason.

I'd start with looking at whether there is a correlation between BSP and last fence fallers. It could be that this alone explains it. Another contributing factor could be that he rides in better class races on average, meaning jumping at greater speed, or on better class courses where the fences tend to be stiffer.

There must be a logical explanation - I can't have it that Ruby is just more prone to falling off.
 
its about confidence and mind play now with Ruby..its been highlighted and will be in his mind as it is with punters

Imo its no different to how jockeys go through spells where they can do no wrong..then they go through spells were they can't ride a winner for love or money. Its a bit self fulfilling..when you winning races you tend to be feeling great..when you losing..you don't feel so great. When you win you don't give what you think is a problem a thought..but when you losing you would start analysing yourself to see why you losing. In both instances you probably not really doing anything differently..its just mindset

at the moment Ruby will have this in his mind..whereas when he goes a period without it happening he never gives it a thought..its a self fulfilling thing i think..he will shake it off. The problem is..he could go 6 months without it happening..first one that goes down though..people then say..oh he still has this issue.

His high profile just makes it worse..if he were a lower down jock he could be doing it every week at plumpton..no one would notice
 
EC1 said:
its about confidence and mind play now with Ruby..its been highlighted and will be in his mind as it is with punters

Imo its no different to how jockeys go through spells where they can do no wrong..then they go through spells were they can't ride a winner for love or money. Its a bit self fulfilling..when you winning races you tend to be feeling great..when you losing..you don't feel so great. When you win you don't give what you think is a problem a thought..but when you losing you would start analysing yourself to see why you losing. In both instances you probably not really doing anything differently..its just mindset

at the moment Ruby will have this in his mind..whereas when he goes a period without it happening he never gives it a thought..its a self fulfilling thing i think..he will shake it off. The problem is..he could go 6 months without it happening..first one that goes down though..people then say..oh he still has this issue.

His high profile just makes it worse..if he were a lower down jock he could be doing it every week at plumpton..no one would notice
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Reading the article, EC, Ruby had a similar poor spell before the 2013 Festival but still rode four winners [with no last fence falls]. Maybe the top jockeys just don't worry about such stats and don't suffer from a loss of confidence. I don't think they could afford to lose confidence/"bottle", either.
 
No doubt being Ruby has that drawback EC but you gotta be kidding about Ruby and mind games.

Guaranteed ever time he passes Davy Russell your man will be "they've added 9" to the top of the last fence Ruby"

Ruby will have heard it all a thousand times and if he was susceptible to mind games he'd never had made it to the top.

NH Jockeys are forever taking the p!ss out of each other and if you took it serious you'd be in the toilet crying before and after every race
 
not meaning mind games in that sense really

its human nature for it to have crossed his mind..he is still human.

yes ..i'm sure the other jocks tease him..same as in any workplace...but once something is highlighted like this..it can be self fullfilling..ie you pay more attention to that last fence than you normally would.

i think that if he had won on Annie Power..none of this would even have been highlighted...that incident has made people watch and take notice. The stats do show a small leaning to say that he is more likely to fall than other jockeys at the last..but in the grand scheme of things..how many othet jocks get brought down in races compared to him...how many ride poor pace races?

Its simple really..if punters believe this is a big issue..then don't back him is the answer..problem solved.....to me its a no issue..so i will just back horses as per usual. Lots of people won't back Jamie Spencer because he holds horses up in slow run races..its same choice we all have really..don't back hosses with what is deemed by punter to be a problem jock...if people fear the last fence fall over all the other things that stop us winning..thats up to individual

I think the % we are talking here are that small..i'd be more worried about getting run over on the streets..its probably more likely
 
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All the figures say to me in regard to the Festival is that he's odds on to have at least one fall over the 4 days and about 4/1 against it being at the last. It's simply a function of him being on better horses who are more often than not in contention at the last. A couple of days ago I checked out his rides in the previous 14 days. 18 rides, 10 winners, 2 second, 2 third, 2 unplaced, 2 falls with one of those at the last. 10 of the 18 started favourite including the 2 fallers.
I'd be fairly confident that, on the course, he doesn't give it a moment's thought. Any such doubts are usually the first step towards retirement.
 
other day he jumped the last..and the two behind him both went down at the last..not a mention of the jocks or their records was mentioned in the media or by punters
 
You'd think last fence falls were more likely full stop. Horses are surely more likely to fall when they are tired.

I wonder how many times Ruby has fallen when he's really asking his horse when other jockeys are more passive or careful. At the opposite end, given the quality of horses he rides and he's clear on, it could be that allowing the horse to find his stride at the last rather than being confidently pushed into the fence/hurdle is a break in communication with the horse when he's perhaps approached the rest of the fences/hurdles differently.
 
I'm telling you, watch his legs. He stands up in the saddle approaching the last every time. A jockeys legs are the main way of communicating with the horse under him, by standing up inside the last stride or two you're severing lines of communications, the poor horse is in 2 minds and blunders his way over the obstacle.

Make up the horses mind for him. Sit tight and ride it into the last Davy Russell esq!! That percentage rate wont be long falling.


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:lol: sorry but that is absolute nonsense. Everyone raises their body at take off.

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Someone came up with an interesting theory and that was the jockeys they are comparing Ruby too mainly ride in England whereas Ruby has ridden much more in Ireland where the fences are much stiffer,

Can't say I knew that but that is what the man said on Willie Hill radio.
 
Tanlic said:
:lol: sorry but that is absolute nonsense. Everyone raises their body at take off.

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Someone came up with an interesting theory and that was the jockeys they are comparing Ruby too mainly ride in England whereas Ruby has ridden much more in Ireland where the fences are much stiffer,

Can't say I knew that but that is what the man said on Willie Hill radio.
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i heard that too..what about the hurdles though?

I think its in his mind now..as pro as these guys are..they are human beings.

One thing i did notice today..in all the first 4 races Ruby was in contention at the last in every race. Basically he is facing the last fence/flight and in contention many more times per day than average jockey who may only be in that position once every couple of days..or 2 or 3 times if a top jockey.

I just wonder if its the fact its coming up very often in short periods of time with him....i don't know. He is in that in contention at last a lot of times per day compared to average though

its either that..or it is now playing on his mind
 
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