Road to Punting Success 2011

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gearoid
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EC1 said:
but who is a really great judge in respect of making a book?...you just cannot factor prices accurately enough for it to be worthwhile....so why do it?
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Anyone that shows a profit after sustained period by backing horses at longer prices than they thought their true chance was. Only a gamblers profit and loss at the end of a prolonged period will the answer be shown whether they were accurate enough.

When you put one of your lays up, why do you do so? Because you think it is a poor price? Okay maybe you don't physically allot every single horse a price but you are still coming up with conclusion of chance v price. Doing a book is just that, but putting down on pen and paper.
 
gus said:
I think I'd be in the "rank bad judge" category insofar as doing my own tissue is concerned. I'd be bound to come at it with preconceived ideas and I'd end up subconsciously trying to skew the odds in favour of the horse I fancy for the race.
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Your preconceived ideas imo are your edge imo. Everybody can look at a race and 'fancy' something. The key is having a firm idea at what price you would back it at and be prepared to leave it at 9/4 if you wanted 3's. That's certainly my approach. I like to look at a race and come up with a favourite I don't think should be. If I find one, I know in my own opinion that logic dictates that something else must be (that word again) 'value' as a result.

I certainly am not one of those that thinks they can forecast the cast majority of horses in a race and be accurate enough to say back 3 and lay 4 in a 10-runner field. Fair play and good luck to anyone that makes a profit this way. It just wouldn't work for me.

In fact that's another rule to bring in, play in a style that suits you and your own temperament rather than what others tell you works for them.
 
Gearoid said:
The Christmas Hurdle is a very well formed market. Does anyone disagree with any of the prices?

2/1 Binocular
5/2 Starluck
10/2 Khyber Kim
6/1 Overturn
8/1 Escortmen
250/1 Bocamix

I fancy Khyber Kim and therefore I could argue he should be shorter in the betting than Starluck but does that make 10/3 value? Probably not.

I am an Overturn fan but he's no "value" at 6's! ;)


.
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Euronymous said:
Ultimately if you are of the opinion that the favourite of a given race is worth taking on then it shouldn't be too hard to find a horse or two that are nice prices. You shouldn't need to price up all the runners. The perfect example of this would be Big Bucks first World Hurdle. Kasbah Bliss was odds-on when it could be argued he shouldn't even have been the market leader so there were value prices all over the shop.
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thats basically what i do..i've posted many times that X is a bad fav so others must be value etc

my main gripe with the making a book is the trying to allot actual prices to horses..i just don't see the need for that effort

a simple ranking method should tell you enough..if the horse you rank as best on the day isn't the fav then you should have value

but that leads on to actually creating a ranking system that gives you what should be the true fav....true fav means the horse with the best chance on the day under the prevailing conditions in our world.

sounds easy to do:)
 
we should pick a race on Saturday and all have a go at ranking each horse..a smallish field would preferable..8-10 ish runners

might be interesting to see what our combined rankings came up with
 
EC1 said:
we should pick a race on Saturday and all have a go at ranking each horse..a smallish field would preferable..8-10 ish runners

might be interesting to see what our combined rankings came up with
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Send them in a PM to me and I will do up the comparisions on excel. No point doing it if you see other peoples prices beforehand.
 
Rank each horse out of 100. Anyone who wants a go feel free to PM me or email me on gearoidn@gmail.com. I'll even have a stab myself but will do it as soon as the race is announced.
 
What's Your Tissue Worth?

Here is a chance to put your racing pricing skills to the test or at least to give us an insight of how different peopkle see races differently. There will be no Betfair or RP tissue as a guide to help you. The Press Association is available but god bless you if that gives you a clue!

Sunday Southwell 2.30

Price up to 100% please. Anyone unsure how to do a tissue can just give each horse a mark out off 100. The total of all the horse's 'marks' must total 100.

E.G

60 Kauto Star
15 Denman
25 Imperical Commander
____________________

100 Total


Just PM or email me @ gearoidn@gmail. The more the better. My hunch is that the combined tissues will not be far off the first show Sunday morning.


I will do a bit of anaylsis on it if we get the numbers and see what the average price put to a horse stacks up against the SP. I will also have a go myself.

Deadline is 4pm tomorrow.
 
Cute and paste the into a PM and just add the ratings or prices! In order of official rating.

2.30 Southwell
0-60 Apprentice Series handicap

Magic Haze
Asterisk
The Dukes Arch
Light The City
Tinseltown
Carnac
Yossi
Tivers Song
Beseech
Mojeerr
Lord's Seat
 
To 100%:

Tivers Song 5/1
Carnac 11/2
Magic Haze 13/2
Beseech 8/1
The Dukes Arch 11/1
Yossi 12/1
Mojeerr 14/1
Asterisk 14/1
Tinseltown 16/1
Light The City 16/1
Lord's Seat 40/1
 
Carnac 4/1
Dukes Arch 11/2
Tivers Song 11/2
Asterisk 6/1
Magic Haze 12/1
Beseech 12/1
Yossi 20/1
Mojeer 16/1
Tinseltown 33/1
Light The City 33/1
Lords Seat 50/1

edited into prices
 
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Bet like a lunatic today and thanks to Euronomous reinforcing my view on James de Vassey I made a modest profit! Dicipline is a must to try and make s success of all rhe hard work. With Kauto today (10/11 ante post) that's my third lumpy odds on loser in a row. Swerving the very skinny ones from now on no matter what "value" they represent.
 
Magic Haze 13/2
Asterisk 11/4
Dukes Arch 9
Tinseltown 33
Carnac 17/2
Yossi 12
Tivers Song 6
Light The City 25
Mojeer 25
Bessech 16
Lords Seat 100
 
My take on the 3.35 for anyone interested

TRANS SONIC 6/1
FOLLOW THE FLAG (IRE) 8/1
GALA CASINO STAR (IRE) 25
EVERYMANFORHIMSELF (IRE) 9/4
CAPRIO (IRE) n/r
PRINCE OF VASA (IRE) 33
TEVEZ 16
ELUSIVE FAME (USA) 8/1
CONRY (IRE) 4/1
 
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